NBA Slate – January 10, 2021

January 10, 2021 | Posted in Sports | By

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Eight games scheduled

Utah @ Detroit (+7.5)

Chicago @ Los Angeles Clippers (-11.5)

Oklahoma City @ Brooklyn (-9)

Denver at New York Knicks (+6.5)

Miami @ Boston (+6)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston (+3)

San Antonio @ Minnesota (+3.5)

Toronto @ Golden State (+3)

Truths to be self evident

Last night, the Philadelphia 76ers showed there’s no such thing as easy money in Vegas. The Nuggets were 13.5 favorites because the Sixers were missing half their team due to COVID protocols and the Nuggets failed to cover. There’s a reason Vegas sports books made a record $54 million dollars on a half billion dollars wagered on sporting events.

The Utah Jazz continue their road trip in Detroit where the spread continues to grow requiring Utah to cover more points. The Chicago Bulls, getting no respect, are double digit underdogs to the Los Angeles Clippers. Cleveland was a double digit underdog until Giannis was ruled out. Cleveland would have covered double digits as they lost by 10.

Oklahoma City, fresh off a win agains the Knicks, play Brooklyn expected to return Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. Irving doesn’t want to play without Durant because he has to work too hard. Irving showed in Boston he can’t carry the weight and obviously Irving isn’t even going to try. There will be times Brooklyn rests Durant and Irving because the rest together. This is when the Nets will have value.

Denver plays the Knicks who failed to cover the spread as a first time favorite this season against the Jazz in their last game. Miami and Boston have a rematch with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in question. Plus, Boston is still missing front court depth due to COVID protocols.

The Lakers play the Rockets and Fat James Harden with the spread hanging around three because LeBron James and Anthony Davis are questionable every game. San Antonio and Minnesota play on consecutive nights with last night seeing the return of Karl Anthony Townes. Will he rest on a back to back?

Finally, the Toronto Raptors, who finally won their second game, play in the bay against Steph Curry and company.

The Computer

The computer, whom we respect, went a paltry 1-7 against the spread but a dominating 6-2 on over/unders. Correctly predicting a Phoenix outright win carries weight outside the actuals. For example, there have been instances of the computer predicting the score of a NBA game. Far more instances of correctly predicting one team’s score. Instances of correctly predicting the total points in an NBA game. These instances add validity to the predictions.

Tonight’s predictions

Detroit +8, Detroit outright

Chicago +12.5, Chicago outright

Golden State +3, Golden State outright

These teams are getting no respect.

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NBA Slate – January 9, 2021

January 9, 2021 | Posted in Sports | By

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Eight games scheduled

Denver @ Philadelphia (+13.5)

Miami @ Washington (+7)

Atlanta @ Charlotte (+5.5)

Phoenix @ Indiana (-3.5)

San Antonio @ Minnesota (+4.5)

Cleveland @ Milwaukee (-12.5)

Orlando @ Dallas (-6)

Portland @ Sacramento (+5.5)

Truths to be self evident

Last night, the Detroit Pistons showed there is no such thing as “easy money” in Vegas winning outright against the heavily favored Phoenix Suns.

The Denver Nuggets face a Philadelphia 76ers team with the required eight players available though they will play the game with seven players because the other half of the team is in quarantine after Seth Curry tested positive for COVID.

The Miami Heat, strong in every other game, face the Washington Wizards with Russell Westbrook questionable. The Atlanta Hawks, still without Danilo Gallinari and Rajon Rondo, face the Charlotte Hornets, winners of two straight as an average 6.5 point underdog.

The Phoenix Suns are on a back to back facing an Indiana Pacers team continuing to win without their best player T.J. Warren for the foreseeable future. The San Antonio Spurs face perhaps the worst team in the NBA, the Minnesota Timberwolves, who could potentially return their best player Karl Anthony-Townes.

The Cleveland Cavaliers complete their six game road trip facing the Milwaukee Bucks and are double digit underdogs. The Orlando Magic, short handed with the loss of Markelle Fultz for the season and Evan Fournier still being ruled out game after game.

Finally, the Portland Trailblazers face the Sacramento Kings, on a back to back, with Vegas expecting a lot of points from teams who don’t play defense.

The computer

Last night, the computer got a reprieve from analysis as real life resulted in missing six game predictions. For some reason, the computer does not want to show the results after the game has started. In my opinion, Sportsline recognizes how much time is spent on their website analyzing the computer’s predictions and removes the predictions on an account specific basis. If this opinion were true, meaning I’m seeing something different than other Sportsline customers, credibility of the entire Sportsline system could be called into question.

I can tell you the computer went 4-6 against the spread and correctly predicted the over/under in two out of three games. There were no A rated games to analyze.

Tonight’s predictions

Sacramento +5.5

Phoenix +3.5

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NBA Slate – January 8, 2021

January 8, 2021 | Posted in Sports | By

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Ten games scheduled

Phoenix @ Detroit (+8)

Charlotte @ New Orleans (-7)

Washington @ Boston (-4.5)

Oklahoma City @ New York Knicks (-2.5)

Utah @ Milwaukee (-5.5)

Orlando @ Houston (-6.5)

Brooklyn @ Memphis (-1)

Toronto @ Sacramento (+5)

Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State (+6.5)

Chicago @ Los Angeles Lakers (-9.5)

Truths to be self evident

Last night, Luka Doncic showed when you’re struggling from three point range, keep shooting.

The Phoenix Suns, continuing to grow from their 8-0 impressive bubble performance over the summer face the Detroit Pistons coming off consecutive double digit losses to the Milwaukee Bucks. The Charlotte Hornets, fresh off beating Atlanta outright as six point underdogs, face the New Orleans Pelicans who could be without J.J. Redick.

The Washington Wizards face the Boston Celtics who lack depth in the front court due to COVID protocols. The Oklahoma City Thunder, outright winners as eight point underdogs two nights ago, face a New York Knicks team continuing to win outright and cover spreads. The Knicks have won three straight in games where they were an average eight point underdog and covered five of their last six games. What happens tonight when the Knicks are a favorite?

The struggling Jazz continue their road trip in Milwaukee against Giannis and company having suffered consecutive defeats at the hands of short handed Brooklyn and a Knicks team continuing to show they might be pretty good.

The Orlando Magic, winners of two in a row over the Cleveland Cavaliers, take on Fat James Harden and the Houston Rockets who are perhaps getting too much respect having lost three of four and covering one spread.

The Brooklyn Nets, mysteriously without Kyrie Irving who isn’t playing due to “personal reasons”, and Kevin Durant continued to show they can compete with an outright win over the Sixers last night, face the Memphis Grizzlies who should be faded until Ja Morant returns. I don’t think Memphis should be favored over anyone.

The Toronto Raptors, 1-6 on the season, and losers of three straight are somehow five point favorites in Sacramento. Sacramento could be without De’Aaron Fox and his status will certainly move the spread. The Clippers and Warriors play for the second time in three nights. Should we expect a different result than the Clippers seven point win in their last meeting?

Finally, the Chicago Bulls, winners of five of the last six against the spread, face the Los Angeles Lakers on the second night of a back to back.

The Computer

The Computer, whom we respect, went 2-3 against the spread last night, and a sizzling 4-1 on over/unders. Tonight, the computer likes underdogs Washington, Oklahoma City, Orlando, Brooklyn, Sacramento, and Chicago to all cover with Brooklyn winning outright.

Tonight’s predictions

Sacramento +5 and will take extra points if Fox ruled out

Los Angeles Clippers -6.5

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NBA Slate – January 7, 2021

January 7, 2021 | Posted in Sports | By

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Five games scheduled

Philadelphia @ Brooklyn (+1.5)

Cleveland @ Memphis (-5)

Minnesota @ Portland (-10)

Dallas @ Denver (-2.5)

San Antonio @ Los Angeles Lakers (-7)

Truths to be self evident

Last night, the Charlotte Hornets winning outright legitimized some of our efforts when combined with the Orlando Magic easily covering six points against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Philadelphia is playing on a back to back where their best player, Joel Embiid, may rest and coming off a grueling 141-136 victory over the Washington Wizards seeing Bradley Beal score 60 and Russell Westbrook dislocate his finger.

The Cavaliers are on a back to back playing their third game in four nights, fourth game in six nights, and fifth game of a six game road trip. If there was ever a “throw” game on the schedule, this is it against a Memphis team who played the Lakers relatively tough the past two games.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are ten point underdogs to the Portland Trailblazers who probably shouldn’t be ten point favorites over anyone right now.

The Dallas Mavericks face the Denver Nuggets in a game that could go either way. The Nuggets return Michael Porter Jr. from health and safety protocols while the Mavericks are still without Kristaps Porzingis.

Finally, the Spurs play the Lakers for the third time inside a week. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both questionable with one expected to sit.

The Computer

The computer, whom we respect, went 5-6 against the spread and 4-7 on over/unders. Perhaps more importantly, the computer went 2-1 on A rated action, correctly predicting the Clippers by 5 and over 228.5 in the Bulls/Kings game. A rated predictions are now 8-9 on the season with the computer missing on over 231 in the Clippers/Warriors game.

Tonight’s Predictions

Memphis -3.5

Dallas/Denver o223

Dallas +2.5

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NBA Slate – January 6, 2021

January 6, 2021 | Posted in Sports | By

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Eleven games scheduled

Houston Rockets @ Indiana Pacers (-2)

Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers (-6.5)

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic (-5.5)

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat (-3)

Charlotte Hornets @ Atlanta Hawks (-6)

Utah Jazz @ New York Knicks (+7.5)

Oklahoma City Thunder @ New Orleans Pelicans (-7.5)

Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks (-12)

Toronto Raptors @ Phoenix Suns (-3)

Chicago Bulls @ Sacramento Kings (-7)

Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors (+1.5)

Truths to be self evident

Last night, the Brooklyn Nets were a big win showing spreads over reacting to the news of one player being out. Yet, one player being out for the Clippers resulted in an outright win for the underdog Spurs.

The Rockets play Indiana and will be short handed. The Philadelphia 76ers look to improve on their impressive start against the Washington Wizards who don’t play defense. The Cleveland Cavaliers rematch for the second time in three days agains the Orlando Magic who could return one of their best players Evan Fournier.

The Boston Celtics, fresh off a blow out win over the Toronto Raptors in a game seeing a forty point swing, face the Miami Heat in a rematch of the eastern conference finals from three months ago. The Charlotte Hornets, fresh off consecutive double digit losses to the 76ers face the Atlanta Hawks who aren’t the same team without Rajon Rondo.

The Utah Jazz, on a back to back after last night’s embarrassment at the hands of the short handed Brooklyn Nets, face a Knicks team doing just one thing … covering spreads. The Oklahoma City Thunder, one of the worst teams in the NBA, and certainly the worst team in the west, face the New Orleans Pelicans who seem to excelling in defense and a slower pace under their new head coach.

The Detroit Pistons are again double digit underdogs to the Milwaukee Bucks, fresh off covering 16 points two nights ago. Toronto is reeling facing a Phoenix Suns team building off their impressive bubble performance while the Chicago Bulls, winners outright in Portland last night, are getting no respect on the back to back in Sacramento as nearly eight point dogs.

Finally, the Clippers, expected to be without Kawhi Leonard and possibly Paul George, travel to the bay and face Steph Curry and the Warrior who have been lighting up the scoreboard the past three games.

The Computer

The computer, whom we respect, went 3-2 against the spread and 2-3 on over/unders. Particularly impressive was the computer predicting Memphis, San Antonio, and Chicago to all cover.

Tonight, the computer likes underdog Houston, Boston, Toronto, and Chicago to all cover with the Rockets and Fat James Harden winning outright.

A note about the Computer’s A Rating … a 63% win rate. So far this season, A Ratings have a win percentage of 42.8. There’s opportunity, perhaps, depending on your level of respect for the computer. Tonight, the computer’s A ratings are currently over 229.5 in Bulls/Kings game and the Los Angeles Clippers -1.5 against Golden State. However, certainly the Clippers rating will change once Leonard’s and George’s status becomes clear.

Tonight’s picks:

Charlotte +6 + outright

Orlando -5.5

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NBA Slate – January 5, 2021

January 5, 2021 | Posted in Sports | By

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Five games scheduled

Utah Jazz @ Brooklyn Nets (+4.5)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies (+9)

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets (-10.5)

San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Clippers (-9.5)

Chicago Bulls @ Portland Trailblazers (-9.5)

Truths to be self evident

The Brooklyn Nets will be without Kevin Durant due to COVID protocols the next seven days and the Utah Jazz are so heavily favored with 61% of the bets and 80% of the money, surely Brooklyn winning outright is the bet to make.

The Lakers meet the Grizzlies for the second time in three days. Should we expect the outcome to be any different two days later? Minnesota and Denver also meet for the second time in three days. Should we expect a different outcome?

The Spurs may get LaMarcus Aldridge back from injury but the spread continues to move toward double digits. Double digit spreads are 5-5 on the season with the most recent cover by the Detroit Pistons (+16) against the Milwaukee Bucks last night.

The Chicago Bulls, fresh off a win against the Dallas Mavericks without Luka Doncic face Dame in Portland who were lit up by Steph Curry two nights ago.

The computer

The computer, whom we respect, is picking Memphis, San Antonio, and Chicago to cover. Yesterday, the computer went 4-5 against the spread and 4-5 on over/unders. Correctly picking Boston and the Knicks to cover beat the sharps who went 4-4 yesterday.

“Systems” like San Antonio +9.5 and Minnesota +10.5 as these are road teams off against the spread road losses. However, the early trend in teams meeting in consecutive contests over three days is the result is the same from the first game meaning the Lakers and Denver should both cover tonight.

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