October 29, 2020 | Posted in: Publishing

Photo from Wikipedia

We like to make sports predictions. Week 8 of the 2020 NFL season kicks off in a few hours so we figure we would publish something about the game.

We like Atlanta +2.5, Atlanta +120. A lot of money to be made in NFL predictions. We don’t care about such things, our site isn’t even monetized because we don’t publish for money, we publish to enlighten.

And, perhaps, we place two small wagers, very small by sports gambling standards, to be correct, not for the money. We feel over the long term it’s a 50/50 proposition where one loses one dollar per ten dollars wagered … if, one is decent at making the predictions and bold enough to put their money where their mouth is.

Julio Jones a full go

I’m glad the Cleveland Browns traded down and avoided selecting Julio Jones in 2011. Did Atlanta know he was going to be a hall of famer? Doubtful.

In 2008, Atlanta selected Matt Ryan with the third overall pick. After two encouraging seasons by Ryan, Atlanta decided to trade up for the best receiver available in 2011 … Quintorris Lopez “Julio” Jones.

Ten seasons and 820 catches later, Julio Jones is still burning teams at age 32 though battling through nagging injuries. Against Carolina, Julio Jones is not listed on the injury report and coming off an eight catch, 97 yard performance against the Detroit Lions in Week 7.

Carolina Over Valued

Perhaps the “sharps” agree. Line movement of Atlanta +2.5 to Atl +1.5 indicate money coming in on Atlanta. Their losses on defensive line cannot be overcome as both Brian Burns and Yetur Gross-Matos will miss the rest of the season. Carolina covered the spread last week against New Orleans, losing by just 3 and a close game in New Orleans, where the Saint’s dominance is over valued in the world of sports wagering, generate further opportunity on the underdog in this matchup.

Drafting Analytics

How do we draft the next Julio Jones? Some articles about drafting defensive tackles give insight into analyzing the process leading to the selection of Julio Jones hence the term analytics.

6’3, 226 pounds with his speed is an anomaly. DK Metcalf falling to the second round, pick 64, when he is more anomalous at 6’4′, 229, with more speed than Julio Jones, shows NFL teams are too inside the box about speed and undervaluing size on the offensive edge of your formation.

Belichick selected his 6’4″ edge presence in N’Keal Harry in 2019, however, Harry has not been able to stay healthy, playing just 11 games in his career. Harry’s combine speed was measured at 4.59, Julio Jones 4.39, DK Metcalf 4.33.

There’s six foot receivers galore in the NFL. Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, and Parris Campbell were all selected before DK Metcalf. The first receiver selected, Marquise Brown, and Andy Isabella, both selected before DK Metcalf, are 5’9″.

Teams value the edge speed more than they value the edge Size. I’m trying to create as many mismatches as possible inside the rectangle where I’m trying to score points to win a game. DK Metcalf is a mismatch for any NFL corner. Teams having to game plan for Metcalf’s size and his speed give Seattle an advantage.

Bro, does anyone look at any of the teams we have to play to actually win the title in the Superbowl? Something tells me, if we want to win a title in the next five years, not only do we have to beat Patrick Mahomes, we have to beat Russell Wilson. He’s a hall of famer. Mahomes too. Teams want to try and duplicate the speed on the edge like KC demonstrates with Tyreek Hill.