Defensive Tackle Bust Rates

October 28, 2020 | Posted in The Wisdom of RastaJay | By

We looked at defensive tackles selected between 2005 and 2015 adding a second data set of defensive tackles drafted between 2015 and 2018. The defensive tackles Analyzed, if you will, were all selected in rounds three through five. We became curious about defensive tackles selected in the first or second round 2005 through 2018. These types of articles are impossible without and

Hardly “Busts”

Between 2005 and 2015, 74 defensive tackles were drafted in the first or second round. 54 appeared in more than 48 games, covering three NFL seasons. 43 appeared in more than 64 games, covering four NFL seasons. 32 appeared in more than 80 NFL games, covering five NFL seasons.

Three year defensive tackle – 72.9% … Four year defensive tackle – 58% … five year defensive tackle – 43.2%. Basic Math drawing an extremely biased conclusion when drafting a defensive tackle in the first or second round, 72.9% of the time, the draftee plays in 48 NFL games, or, three NFL seasons. This is not analytics.

The conclusion is biased for a number of statistical reasons we don’t divulge into because we are not mathematicians. Recency bias, for example, are Da’Ron Payne, Vita Vea (bitten by injury in 2020), and PJ Hall solid defensive tackles?

These defensive tackles were selected in 2018 with an available pool of games less than our parameters of 48 NFL games covering three seasons. Phil Taylor was drafted in this data set. Was he a successful defensive tackle? How can we measure that success? Did we get run on when Taylor was playing defensive tackle?

Here was the most interesting part of the data set from our point of view.

Seven of the 74 defensive tackles selected played at least two NFL seasons. I’m sure it’s no big secret defensive tackles are a safe draft pick … but this safe? A 90% chance of a two year defensive tackle?

However, perhaps we Expect more from a first or second round defensive tackle. We expect more from Haloti Ngata, Ndamukong Suh, and Linval Joseph. How do we measure expectation value from the expenditure of a first round pick on a defensive tackle? I want to draft all pros who play fifteen seasons. May I see some data besides bench press and three cone?

Finding DTs in 2021 Draft

Since we’ve drafted just three defensive tackles since 2016, my cat says defensive tackle is the second priority behind finding the next Bobby Wagner in the first round. Bobby Wagner is the Roman God of the Middle and Underneath.

How do we find the next Bobby Wagner in the first round? Analytics. We look at the entire process of selecting linebackers. We already feel the model developed to date as a result of examining the entire process of drafting a linebacker has demonstrated some success 2016-2020.

2021 Draft Needs – LB, DT, CB, DT, WR, TE, CB

Draft Needs should be limited to seven at this point because there are seven rounds in the NFL Draft. Identifying defensive tackles in rounds three through five should be priority. We need to do better than Terrance Mitchell next season. Redwine has to get the reps playing single high safety. The injury bug biting one edge of the offensive Triangle (don’t @ me) allows the team to function more as the team was intended to function.

The injury to #13 allows more reps for Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones allowing evaluation and two receiver sets make more sense. Replacing Beckham on the edge with Size will make our triangle better. Higgins in his spot is what we want from a salary cap standpoint and now we have a chance to truly evaluate Higgins in the role we’d like him to play … a #1 receiver with Size.

The invariable variable

Injury in the NFL is an invariable variable. The event will occur. Teams hope to avoid the invariable variable, fans hope for as few injuries as possible, and players hope for the best and work hard for their bodies to be in the kind of shape mitigating injury. NFL players are the best athletes on planet earth don’t @ me.

The devastating injury to our offense is terrible and we wish him speedy recovery and look forward to the day he is part of the offensive playbook.

We must always remain optimistic in spite of injury although the situation in Dallas is concerning. There have been so many injuries and so many backups installed there’s concerns of even more injuries.

The data says NFL players need three to four “warmup” games before engaging in NFL game conditions

Read More →

Matthew the Doubter

April 9, 2020 | Posted in The Wisdom of RastaJay | By

Published on behalf of a friend

Hello Brother, some time ago you were told history shall know you as Matthew the Doubter. We, being a collective of intellectuals led by me, Brother Nehemiah, contend this blog post fulfills a prophecy because given an appropriate amount of time with the proper tags when someone uses google with the search term Matthew the Doubter, this blog post will appear before thine eyes to read if they so choose. For art Brother Nehemiah a prophet?

The book, the Gospels, the cross, the son, Him … these are all important aspects of our movement, however, humans on earth have been searching for answers through Him for the past two thousand years and here we are today. The truth of one God was never meant to be so decisive. The splintering of Christianity into a thousand thousand thousand sects over disagreements about the New Testament is a tragic outcome in trying to help humans on earth worship one God. The time for searching for answers through Him must be put aside in an attempt to find answers through Her.

Mother. The Church has a problem because they propagated the unnatural. How is there a Son with no Mother? Mother, the Mother of planets suitable for human life, was Excluded from the history books. What, you don’t think God took a wife? You don’t think God took many wives, metaphorically speaking, because planets with the right “atmosphere” for human life to procreate are Scarce in the universe He created with the snap of his fingers.

God snapped his fingers and created the entire Universe. However, the Creator was then bound by the laws He created with the snap of his fingers. Sure, God can intervene because he’s the creator, and he has, with the story told in the second book of Moses. However, God’s mantra is He would rather you, as humans on earth, figure things out for yourselves.

Her time. Mother Earth. Her creatures. Her trees. Her mountains, rivers, and lakes. Her oceans. Her deserts. Her forests. All with a star at the right proximity to the planet for human life to flourish. Perhaps humans on earth forgot to worship their star.

During the day, on your island, when you’re standing in the starlight warming your body, mind, spirit, and soul, worship Her. Worship our star because humans basking in warm starlight is a rarity in our universe.

A blog post, for legitimacy, should be 500 words. You’re to preach a new gospel. Her gospel. Your expertise on the original gospels and the son, perhaps the book in it’s entirety, makes you the lynch pin of the disciples. We worship God, appreciate the teachings of the son but Salvation is an inside job. One can find Salvation through God and his wife, the Mother of Planets suitable or human life. 473 words.

The pandemic broke mother’s fever. And relax, population control through pestilence has been done time and time again throughout the universe for it is Her time. Our mother wages war against an invasive species worshipping false idols.

Read More →

Draft Kings Week 4 Sunday Classic

September 26, 2019 | Posted in The Wisdom of RastaJay | By

We have enjoyed three cash finishes in our first year of Draft Kings and are hoping Week 4 Sunday Classic gives us our first monumental cash finish of the season.

Mahomes is a God

Mahomes is on pace for 6,300 yards and 53 touchdown passes through three games on the season. One can only hope to contain him and what’s scary is all this madness with the yardage and touchdowns being accomplished with Tyreek Hill on the sidelines with a weird collarbone injury.

Week 4 finds Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs traveling to Detroit facing a surprisingly undefeated Lions squad. Detroit ranks just 22nd against the pass through games surrendering 269.3 yards per game. We look for Mahomes to be Mahomes and score 30+ fantasy points

Value at Running Back

The Detroit/Kansas City game has the highest over/under of any weekend game, standing currently at 55. Kansas City ranks 26th against the run surrendering a paltry 137.7 yards per contest on the ground. We look for Kerryon Johnson to be utilized heavily in this game.

Marlon Mack faces an Oakland defense ranked 19th against the run giving up 119 yards on the ground per game. Mack is ranked highly by most prognosticators and the game sits at 45 over/under.

More Value at Wide Receiver

We’re going with Kenny Golladay in the highest over/under game of the week hoping he bounces back after flopping in Week 3 with high expectations.

We’re going to be watching Julian Edelman’s status for Sunday’s game. Edelman has been limited all week, amazing his teammates, and he’s just the kind of guy to tough through this injury because he’s a man’s man.

Rookie Terry McLaurin is becoming Case Keenum’s favorite target playing for a team throwing the ball due to second half deficits. The New York Football Giants rank 31st agains the pass surrendering a ridiculous 460.3 yards per contest. We and the prognosticators like McLaurin to continue his hot start.

Top Dollar at Tight End

We’re going with Travis Kelce, paying top dollar for Mahomes favorite target. We’re adding Kansas City’s big play threat, rookie Mecole Hardman, stepping into the Tyreek Hill role and look for him to continue his big play capability.

Los Angeles Rams Defense

Tampa’s offensive line is porous, Tampa is traveling out west, Aaron Donald got his first sack last week, and Famous Jameis is well overdue for a pick six.

Read More →

Draft Kings Week 4 Thursday Night Showdown

September 25, 2019 | Posted in The Wisdom of RastaJay | By

After a cash finish in Monday Night’s Week 3 Showdown, we are excited to enter this team in Thursday Night’s game where the Eagles of Philadelphia travel to the Packers of Green Bay where perhaps the Packers will prevail by kicking an oblong ball made of pigskin through a big H.

Who else but Rodgers as Captain?

Aaron Rodgers is a Hall of Famer playing at home on a short week against an Eagles team struggling against the pass. After three weeks, the Eagles rank 29th against pass giving up 293.7 yards per game and allowing 2.33 touchdown passes per game.

Nelson Agholor will o/u 2.5 drops

Green Bay is playing stellar defense ranking fifth against the pass surrendering just 192.7 yards per contest and has allowed just one passing touchdown on the season. Our expectation is these numbers are skewed on the low end and Wentz could have a decent night.

DeSean Jackson remains on the sidelines with an abdominal injury and while Alshon Jeffrey “could play” Thursday Night, we like Agholor to once again dominate target shares as he produced eight catches on 12 targets in the Eagles’ Week 3 loss to the Lions.

GB pass catchers galore

We’re paying top price for DaVante Adams and adding Marquez Valdes-Scantling as he dominated the target share in Week 3 against the Lions totaling six grabs on ten targets for 99 yards and a touchdown.

Detroit’s Big Play Darius Slay covered Adams well in week 3 as Adams caught all four of his targets for 56 yards.

Will Packers D continue hot start?

Team defenses are always a decent play in Showdown as the prices allow for more high priced stars like Adams and making Rodgers captain. Green Bay sacked Joe Flacco six times in Week 3 while Wentz was sacked three times by a surprisingly undefeated Lions team. We like the sacks to fall somewhere in the middle in Thursday’s contest and maybe Green Bay scores on defense or special teams.

Mack Hollins a decent play?

With DeSean Jackson out with injury, Hollins saw seven targets in Week 3, producing four catches for 62 yards. At $2,400 for Thursday’s contest, Hollins offers decent value.

Read More →

Draft Kings Week 3 Thursday Night Showdown

September 18, 2019 | Posted in The Wisdom of RastaJay | By

After another cash finish in Monday Night’s Showdown featuring the Cleveland Browns throttling of the hapless New York Jets, we are excited to enter this line-up for Thursday Night’s game featuring the Tennessee Titans traveling to Jacksonville to play the 0-2 Jaguars.

Titans defense as our Captain

After two weeks, Tennessee ranks 11th overall in total defense by yards allowed while giving up 16 points per game. The Titans are particularly stout against the pass, ranking second overall while allowing 182.5 passing yards a game. Tennessee is more susceptible to the run, ranking 26th overall, giving up nearly 135 yards per game.

Running backs reign supreme

Thursday night games are traditionally sloppy, especially early in the season and we expect both Derrick Henry and Leonard Fournette to be featured in heavy volume. Jacksonville ranks 17th agains the run, surrendering nearly 120 yards per game.

Mariota a decent night?

We’re going with Marcus Mariota as our only quarterback as Jacksonville ranks 19th against the pass surrounding 257.5 yards per contest without an interception on the season. Mariota was effective Week 2 against Indianapolis, throwing for 154 yards with one touchdown while completing 19/28 passes and a rating of 93.5.

Delanie Walker an early stud

Walker has been particularly effective in the first two weeks and is Mariota’s favorite option in the passing game. Walker has nine catches for 94 yards and a two touchdowns on the season.

Cairo Santos the final slot

The kicker prices allow for higher priced options in the other five slots. We’ll go with Santos to kick a couple field goals in what should be a low scoring affair.

Read More →

Draft Kings Week 2 Sunday Classic

September 14, 2019 | Posted in The Wisdom of RastaJay | By

Los Angeles Rams Stack

In a rematch of the 2018 NFC Championship game, the New Orleans Saints travel to Los Angeles to face Jared Goff and the Rams. The o/u sits at 52 and after New Orleans surrendered 28 points to Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans in a thrilling 30-28 win Week 1, this game has all the makings of a shootout.

Devin Singletary, Alvin Kamara

We’re going to spend the big bucks on Kamara ($8200) after Christian McCaffrey gashed the Rams for 209 all purpose yards and two touchdowns. Kamara was held out of the end zone in Week 1 so we like his chances to score multiple times in a high scoring affair against the Rams.

Singletary produced 98 total yards on 9 touches, including five catches. While future Hall of Fame back Frank Gore is technically the “starter”, Singletary is the more talented player and could thrive as a stingy Buffalo defense could mean a low score for the Giants and multiple running opportunities late in the game.

Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods

Kupp ($6,000) and Woods ($6,400) combined for 23 targets Week 1 in the Rams’ 30-27 win over Carolina. Cooks managed six targets so we’re going with the odds the duo dominates the target share for a second straight week.

Tyrell Williams, Darren Waller

Oakland, minus Antonio Brown and his dramatics, defeated the Denver Broncos 24-16 Week 1 in the last Monday Night game ever at Oakland Coliseum. Williams ($4,400) grabbed six of seven targets for 105 yards and a touchdown while Waller ($3,300) saw eight targets with seven receptions for 70 yards.

The Raiders, again at home, face the high octane Kansas Chiefs’ offense with the o/u string at an astounding 53.5. The fireworks could be real.

Michael Thomas as the Flex

Sticking with a stud wide receiver in the flex position, Thomas ($8,000) had 10 receptions for 123 yards on 13 targets in the Saints’ Week 1 win over the Texans.

Read More →