Bobby Wagner was drafted 47th overall in 2012 from Utah State. I sure am glad the Cleveland Browns selected Trent Richardson third overall in the 2012 NFL Draft instead of Bobby Wagner.
Here are some names selected in 2012 before Bobby Wagner. Luke Kuechly, Nick Perry, Melvin Ingram, Dont’a Hightower, Courtney Upshaw, and Michael Kendricks were all linebackers selected before Bobby Wagner. Keuchly, selected ninth overall, set the value level for Bobby Wagner in the draft. My cat contends there is no debate Bobby Wagner is worth a Top 10 pick in a NFL Draft.
How do we find the next Bobby Wagner? My cat says we can use sabermetrics and analytics.
2012 Draft – The Browns
The Browns made three selections in 2012 in the first 37 picks. Draft capital from the Julio Jones trade in 2011.
Trent Richardson, Brandon Weeden, and Mitchell Schwartz were the three players selected. Mitchell Schwartz, in retrospect, was mistakenly allowed to leave to the Kansas City Chiefs as a free agent in 2016 and won a title. Mistakes were made. We did not have to go 0-16. We learn from our mistakes of how we overvalued contracts and undervalued all pro right tackle play.
My cat contends other NFL teams are copying the model of tearing down contracts, rebuilding, and dealing with a poor product on the field. My cat contends Mike Maycock is a copycat. The Miami Dolphins are copy cats. The way NFL teams are acquiring draft capital, mostly by trading players to the Houston Texans or Seattle Seahawks, are emulating a model the Cleveland Browns started in 2016.
People have to understand it’s an ebb and flow process. The product on the field for us as the Cleveland Browns in 2020 is Encouraging. The product on the field in Miami is Encouraging. The product on the field in Las Vegas is Encouraging, though my cat says Maycock could have made better draft picks with the Khalil Mack draft capital.
The situation in Miami is particularly encouraging because the model, the model bringing sabermetrics and analytics to the NFL, does not have to go 0-16. Emulation is the sincerest form of flattery.
Tampa @ NY Giants (+13)
Week 8 of the 2020 NFL COVID Season concludes with Monday Night Football with Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers traveling to frigid New Jersey to face the hapless NY Giants.
Tampa should win 45-10. However, observing the large print heading of a home underdog getting thirteen points and two other double digit spreads losing this week make the author of this post nervous because I authorized the dispersal of 5.4 units on measuring our predictive model for the outcome of a NFL game.
After listening to all the opinions regarding a final of Tampa 27, NY Giants 17, or some other score within thirteen points, and a combined score less than 46.5, the author of this post made the decision, as he has for many years, on Tampa -13, O 46.5. The 5.4 “wager” will return 6.5 units if correct on both predictions. The “wager” will lose 1.2 units if only one is correct and obviously the wager will lose 5.4 units if incorrect. Rolling 5% on your prediction is what we call “gutsy”.
Predicting NFL Game Scores
We don’t necessarily want to publish in that space, however, there’s a lot of money to be made in predicting NFL game results and being correct. The public is thirsty for any and all content relating to the outcomes of NFL games. Fantasy football, sports betting, survivor pools … all these “events” drive the thirst for content.
We’ll publish some content. We were never under contract regarding non-disclosure. We simply met in The Town back in the day and I knew a lot more about football than you. We had some mutual friends from chess club. and look, I know the first rule of chess club is you do not talk about chess club and publishing about chess club probably breaks the rule. However, do we not have an obligation to teach others chess?
Photo from Wikipedia
We like to make sports predictions. Week 8 of the 2020 NFL season kicks off in a few hours so we figure we would publish something about the game.
We like Atlanta +2.5, Atlanta +120. A lot of money to be made in NFL predictions. We don’t care about such things, our site isn’t even monetized because we don’t publish for money, we publish to enlighten.
And, perhaps, we place two small wagers, very small by sports gambling standards, to be correct, not for the money. We feel over the long term it’s a 50/50 proposition where one loses one dollar per ten dollars wagered … if, one is decent at making the predictions and bold enough to put their money where their mouth is.
Julio Jones a full go
I’m glad the Cleveland Browns traded down and avoided selecting Julio Jones in 2011. Did Atlanta know he was going to be a hall of famer? Doubtful.
In 2008, Atlanta selected Matt Ryan with the third overall pick. After two encouraging seasons by Ryan, Atlanta decided to trade up for the best receiver available in 2011 … Quintorris Lopez “Julio” Jones.
Ten seasons and 820 catches later, Julio Jones is still burning teams at age 32 though battling through nagging injuries. Against Carolina, Julio Jones is not listed on the injury report and coming off an eight catch, 97 yard performance against the Detroit Lions in Week 7.
Carolina Over Valued
Perhaps the “sharps” agree. Line movement of Atlanta +2.5 to Atl +1.5 indicate money coming in on Atlanta. Their losses on defensive line cannot be overcome as both Brian Burns and Yetur Gross-Matos will miss the rest of the season. Carolina covered the spread last week against New Orleans, losing by just 3 and a close game in New Orleans, where the Saint’s dominance is over valued in the world of sports wagering, generate further opportunity on the underdog in this matchup.
How do we draft the next Julio Jones? Some articles about drafting defensive tackles give insight into analyzing the process leading to the selection of Julio Jones hence the term analytics.
6’3, 226 pounds with his speed is an anomaly. DK Metcalf falling to the second round, pick 64, when he is more anomalous at 6’4′, 229, with more speed than Julio Jones, shows NFL teams are too inside the box about speed and undervaluing size on the offensive edge of your formation.
Belichick selected his 6’4″ edge presence in N’Keal Harry in 2019, however, Harry has not been able to stay healthy, playing just 11 games in his career. Harry’s combine speed was measured at 4.59, Julio Jones 4.39, DK Metcalf 4.33.
There’s six foot receivers galore in the NFL. Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, and Parris Campbell were all selected before DK Metcalf. The first receiver selected, Marquise Brown, and Andy Isabella, both selected before DK Metcalf, are 5’9″.
Teams value the edge speed more than they value the edge Size. I’m trying to create as many mismatches as possible inside the rectangle where I’m trying to score points to win a game. DK Metcalf is a mismatch for any NFL corner. Teams having to game plan for Metcalf’s size and his speed give Seattle an advantage.
Bro, does anyone look at any of the teams we have to play to actually win the title in the Superbowl? Something tells me, if we want to win a title in the next five years, not only do we have to beat Patrick Mahomes, we have to beat Russell Wilson. He’s a hall of famer. Mahomes too. Teams want to try and duplicate the speed on the edge like KC demonstrates with Tyreek Hill.
Photo by Travis Essinger.
I wrote some things about drafting defensive tackles in rounds three through five between 2005 and 2015.
What should we expect, based on the information provided in the link above about drafting defensive tackles, between 2015 and 2018?
Between 2005 and 2015, in rounds three through five, 42 defensive tackles were selected
Teams are hardly “missing”
29 of 42 defensive tackles drafted between 2015 and 2018 in rounds three through five appeared in 32 of 64 possible games. Does this mean if I draft a defensive tackle in rounds three through five, I have a 69% of someone who plays in 32 games? No, for a number of reasons. The data set is too small. I would like to incorporate 2019 and 2020, however, we’re digging too deep trying to explain basic statistical principles.
69% chance of a two year rotational defensive tackle. 50% of a three year rotational defensive tackle utilizing a larger data set of eleven drafts. Hardly a “miss” when drafting NFL Prospects.
Statistics are not “analytics”
These articles used basic math, division to produce percentages, and incorporated some basic statistical principles. I’m not going to write an article on Standard Deviation because I got a “C” in a university five hour “Statistics” class.
The analytics start when we look at the decisions leading to the drafting of Grady Jarrett, Teyler Davidson, Matthew Ionnidis, and Larry Ogunjobi.
What metrics were used to draft these players beyond their “combine” results?
How do we place value on Grady Jarrett’s 84 NFL games beyond Tackles and Sacks? How do we correlate a newly determined value on Jarrett’s performance versus the expenditure of a fifth round draft pick to acquire Grady Jarrett? How do we correlate a newly determined value on Jarrett’s performance to a new contract? Is Larry Ogunjobi worth eight million dollars a year?
Is Larry Ogunjobi worth eight million dollars a year when I have a fifty percent chance of drafting his replacement in rounds three through five? How do we value Ogunjobi’s new contract which, in my opinion, we have to give and be looking at drafting a defensive tackle in rounds three through five in 2021 to put a rookie contract in the rotation.
Two defensive tackles could be drafted in 2021 depending on talent’s evaluation on the first and second round prospects.
My cat gets curious about defensive tackles selected in rounds one and two. How safe are these draft picks? However, I think everyone can agree, our top priority is the most talented do it all linebacker available when we pick in the first round in 2021.