A writer has to write.
Hey Paul, if you hired me last month, I would have been texting saying let’s get a hold of New England and see if they’ll take one of our second round picks for Garoppolo. It would have been an idea … now, after the Completely Reactionary Decision to the Garrapolo trade making news, the AJ McCarron fiasco happened an nobody is sure who is keeping their job.
You’re safe bruh. Other teams have “analytical” departments now and Fail in Comparison to your work. You’ll survive the hiring of Peyton Manning, but, when he tries to sell you on his brother coming over on a FA deal to be the 2018 QB behind the rookie Rosen
And come on bruh, how much are they analytics absolutely eating Rosen up like they did Trubisky last year? When you tweet acknowledging you wanted the QB … yeah, you wanted the QB at #1 instead of the DE.
One can only speculate about the new regime, including coaching … the NFL is a young man’s game. Coaching needs to catch up and of course, just like in the movie, everyone is rebelling against the analytics because they’re afraid they’re going to be replaced. It’s ridiculous, analytics are a tool working in conjunction with scouting to make the best choice.
You’ll survive boss. You’re building a model, i’ve seen the movie, any team not tearing down their team and doing what you’re doing will be watching the Cleveland Browns win multiple titles. And all the other teams are behind because of you, Peyton Manning isn’t sending you anywhere.
I’ll be like you, I’ll work from home, You Hire Me as Your Employee, previously discussed wages still apply. I wouldn’t cost that much and I can help you.
The scouts and the analytics will agree. The best move … barring injury …. come on boss, it makes everything We Are Doing … if you really loved me, you would give me the PFF login and password … invalid. If Rosen gets injured between now and draft, then all bets are off because there’s virtually no difference between the next 5 QBs being selected in the first round come 2018.
We need new coaches. We should be 2-9 this year.
We need to switch back to a 3-4 … where did PFF rank Shelton 2015-2017 at NT compared to 2017 at DT in a 4-3? Peppers will be a stud in the front 7 and after all the QB trading frenzy in the Spring of 2018, after we take our guy Rosen, we have a chance to add someone like Derwin James or Minkah Fitzpatrick (as a corner) to our secondary with Houston’s pick which is going to be Top 10.
Coaching. It’s what makes the difference in the league. Manning will want his own coach, maybe his brother … wouldn’t that be something? surrounded by seasoned young coordinators. Current QB/WR coach level as potential offensive coordinators. Young DL/LB coaches for defense. It’s a young man’s game and Hue is an old school guy, I think deep down he’s glad because the analytics are being blamed instead of him.
We’re winless because of coaching.
500 words. it’s like a single spaced single page if printed.
Probably a good place to stop but come on you can read a second page.
3 more picks in the second round and Rosen is going to be rated higher than Wentz and Watson … we have a chance to look like geniuses … if we have the right coaches ….
plus our third rounder makes 6 picks from the first 65 players available. And. shit, maybe we don’t have as big of a problem at WR, I am so hopeful for this kid Gordon … next to Coleman … so excited to watch the game … how many Browns fans say they’re excited to watch the game this weekend? Can’t wait to watch Cleveland in Los Angeles this Sunday … works out nice for you, no flight, one of the things making you perhaps an evil genius is “working” from home in So Cal. You don’t get caught up in the day to day and the office politics, you’re behind the scenes like the wizard of oz developing analytical models. It’s so sexy, I Desire to be part of the equation.
Coaching. At the end of the half against Cincinnati, watch how many seconds tick off the clock before our final timeout is used. Those extra seconds could have resulted in another end zone attempt. Coaching. We’re not winning because of Coaching and if we lose this week and fall to 0-12, coaching is out and we’re promoting the youngest guy with the least amount of connections to the “old school” NFL to head coach and a corporate style promotion amongst the coordinators to fill the vacancies … Anyone that’s been with Jackson or Williams more than the 2 seasons in Cleveland are out …
It’s the New NFL Paul. A passing first QB driven league with these athletes who get bigger, stronger and faster every year. It’s a young man’s game and you know how much I like rookie contracts.
I’m running out of words … thoughts … one never wants to ramble.
If we pressure to Rivers, McCourty keeps Allen in check … we don’t surrender the middle of the field to Hunter Henry, come on Julius Peppers, all eyes are on you … Melvin Gordon doesn’t beat us in space … we can win.
And, with everyone on the field together and finally healthy with the Gordon Wild Card … we can Evaluate this team. If the 3 receiver set isn’t Britt and Gordon on the ends with Coleman in the slot, it’s another piece of evidence the Browns have a coaching problem.
If there’s not 5 designed plays for Njoku to exploit the middle of the field with his size and speed, it’s another piece of evidence the Browns have a coaching problem.
Hire meh … or subscribe to my YouTube channel or something.
Shoulda, woulda, coulda … hindsight is 20/20. All the cliques. He’s a star. After 4 starts. The decision to acquire draft capital instead of the player is haunting the Cleveland Browns. I promised 1,500 words on why Watson wouldn’t have been This good in Cleveland. Do I really need to write the words? Come on, it’s Cleveland … an organization haunted by terrible draft decisions, especially between 2007-2012. There were some good picks those years but anytime the Browns had extra draft capital (the Mark Sanchez and Julio Jones trades), the picks were atrocious. The quarterback choices were those years were disastrous. The wrong choice in 2014 set the organization behind 5 years.
When you hear things eluding to certain people in the front office “wanting the QB” … yeah, there were certain people who wanted the QB at #1 instead of the DE and the QB was the North Carolina guy. It’s the reason Kiper changed his draft board a couple hours before the actual selection was made having “the QB”, Trubisky, as the first choice. Watson wasn’t considered a sure fire first rounder by the scouts, many prognosticators had him as a mid second round choice. His immediate success is certainly entertaining … his energy … and he really did dominate Kansas City in the last 6 minutes of the game down 25. You think he would have been this good in Cleveland? Watson is completing 62.1% of his passes. Do you think he would be completing 62% of his passes in Cleveland? What’s the passed “dropped” rate differential between Houston and Cleveland in 2017? a time we’re merely collecting data on the season, it’s too early to make decisions based on 20 quarters of football.
Let’s start with sacks allowed over the past 3 seasons (2014,2015,2016) over 16 games and where it ranked among the 32 NFL Teams.
Sacks Allowed Houston
2014 – 26, 6th
2015 – 36, 16th
2016 – 32, 12th
Sacks Allowed Cleveland
2014 – 31, 13th
2015 – 53, 31st
2016 – 66, 32nd
The quarterback gets sacked a lot more in Cleveland than in Houston, 56 times More over the past 3 seasons. When the quarterback gets sacked, there’s an opportunity for Injury. Usually lose yards, it counts as a down, it’s just not a good thing when you’re trying to win a football game, something desperately needed in Cleveland.
Yards Per Carry … sacks allowed and YPC are indicators of offensive line Strength. Yet Yards per Carry weren’t a strong indicator of success in 2016 because Cleveland was 2nd of 32 at 4.90 YPC. Houston was 19th at 4.10 YPC. In 2015, 3.7 YPC, ranking 29th, and 2014, 3.9 YPC, 19th of 32. One might conclude Houston wasn’t very good at running the ball the past 3 seasons.
More often than not, when we run the ball on 1st down, we’d like to see 2nd and 6. How different is the play calling between 2nd and 6 and 2nd and 7? I have no clue, I’ve never played football.
Over the same 3 years, let’s look at Total Sacks. There’s no question they’ve been playing better Defense in Houston the past 3 seasons, especially against the run, than Cleveland, ranking 10th of 32 teams in 2014 and 2015. In 2016, Houston was 12th against the run,
Team Sacks Houston
2014 – 38, 19th
2015 – 45, 5th
2016 – 31, 24th
Team Sacks Cleveland
2014 – 31, 27th
2015 – 29, 28th
2016 – 26, 31st
28 more sacks for Houston than Cleveland. Playing 67th percentile defense against the run the past 3 seasons, #1 in total defense, 2016, 3rd in total defense, 2015, puts Watson in a better position to succeed than Cleveland. Think Houston missed JJ Watt last season? Interestingly, in 2014 when Houston totaled 38 sacks, Watt had 20.5 sacks on his own. One person making that kind of an impact, it’s a shame to see injury costing him games.
Almost 600 words deep and i haven’t even mentioned DeAndre Hopkins or Will Fuller. Ryan Griffin, Bruce Ellington, Braxton Miller, Houston averaging 4.5 YPC this season … half the time it’s 2nd and 5, awesome, half the time it’s 2nd and 6. Nothing helps your young quarterback more than running the football effectively. The skill position difference in Houston versus Cleveland
Protecting our QB from sacks, pressure, and disruption … we know it’s going to happen, we want the backfield disruptions at a minimum … and running the football effectively … especially when we had to, up by 9 with under 8 minutes remaining in the game … one might consider these the first principle of a perennial playoff NFL team.
Interestingly, Houston is the most sacked team in 2017. It’s the reason you can’t use 2017 data … it’s skewed. Four teams have had bye weeks, Houston got sacked 10 times Week 1, you can’t call Watson the franchise yet. What were the Actual Results in 2017? Do we dare speculate?
Interestingly, Cleveland plays at Houston this week. A defense ranked 5th against the run and 5th overall … yep, the Browns front office is sure blowing it on improving a defense finishing 31st overall last season to 5th overall and Garrett has played one game. What does it mean Jabrill Peppers isn’t a fit for Gregg Williams defense? A traditional 4-3-4 70s style base defense? Been getting shredded for years by the New NFL and record setting passing.
No one wants to blame coaching. The defense should be adapted for Peppers’ capability. Can you give me a few hundred words on how Los Angeles is using Mark Barron and how Arizona used Deone Buchannon? I’m not a scout, I’ve never played football, was possible value could I add regarding the decision for another first round pick plus a third second round pick instead of Watson?
Kizer needed to go to the bench after the first red zone turnover this past sunday against the Jets, we probably would have won. It was suggested #7 sit in favor of #8 the entire game against the Jets. Coaching. It cost Cleveland a win.
You’re going to give a front office with 24 draft picks the past 2 seasons and 13 scheduled in 2018 an F?
Cleveland 27 Houston 26 – the two point conversion was incomplete.
What’s up Strategy guy, hire me in the strategy department so if things go wrong you have someone to blame. It was all his fault, the analytics didn’t pick the right players. Hog wash, the model has only selected 24 players with 13 more scheduled in 2018. It’s a massive amount of draft capital, yet you haven’t drafted a full NFL roster yet. 37 selections between 2016-2018.
I did some work on the organization’s drafts from 2007-2012, 39 picks total over 5 years. These draft years are beneficial because it’s ancient history … previous ownership … big man changed things up in January 2016, he has to be committed to the model running a 5 year process.
And boss, it’s a shame when coaching costs the model a win. If 8 had played the entire game, at least taken over after the First Red Zone Turnover … geesh, run the ball 3 times for 6 yards and kick a field goal. Don’t take a sack and for goodness sake, don’t turn the ball over … anything, just don’t turn it over. The model could use a win.
The coach has to be on board with the names the analytical model is producing at that particular point in the draft, based on needs.
2007 is a good year to start. Second year regime, injury was a huge factor in 2006, 3rd pick overall, boom … Hall of Fame Left Tackle. Wow, a grand slam. Then, draft capital is expended for the quarterback of the future, Brady Quinn from Notre Dame … the “Franchise”. Paul, what’s Franchise Quarterback mean? A guy I have to pay 25% of my salary cap? What happens when you expend draft capital, move up to make a selection, and pick a Hall of Fame Quarterback? Now we’re talking. Then, in the 2007 draft, capital is expended again to move up in the second round to select CB Eric Wright. 59 games with 54 starts. Serviceable starts. We’d all like to draft a Pro Bowler, however, the model would be fine with league average … was this draft pick’s play was in the 50th percentile of the entire league? First and second round draft picks have higher expectations, the model would like to see them 50th percentile and higher. No picks in the 3rd or fourth round due to the Wright trade, so Brandon McDonald, 5th round, #140. played 48 games. A nice base hit, might have been able to stretch it to a double. Two DE in round 6 (200) and 7 (213) who never made the team, then a 7th round WR who stuck around on the practice squad a year, then played 16 games in 2008, mainly as special teams.
10 wins in 2007, no playoffs. Derek Anderson is given a new contract, maybe that’s the one thing about Cleveland Browns drafted QBs … they make great career backups.
2008, less draft capital from the Quinn/Wright trades. Second rounder traded for DT Corey Williams who played two seasons, all 32 games. He was later traded, in 2010, for a 5th round choice … had to throw in a 7th rounder to complete the draft picks for player exchange. 3rd rounders, plus Leigh Bodden, were traded for Shaun Rogers, played 3 seasons and went to a Pro Bowl. Selected a LB in the fourth round (first actual selection in 2008) and traded up for a TE in the 4th round, neither of whom worked out. Things were so good in Cleveland in 2008, we were trading Away QBs … a 6th round selection for Charlie Frye resulted in a homerun … like a solo shot .. Aytah Rubin, 99 games, maybe playing top 25 percentile NT/DT. a 7th round (231) LB who played 30 games over two seasons and was traded, along with 4th and 5th round choices for two players … Chris Gocong and Sheldon Brown .. Brown played 47 games over 3 seasons, Gocong played 32 games over two seasons and had his career ended by injury … wow, all these examples of players traded for draft capital to analyze … come up with a value for the player and his performance (again, the past … measurable) against the value of the draft capital expended and vice versa.
2009, 8 picks. We trade, twice, with teams wanting Their “Franchise QB”, gain draft capital and draft a three time Pro Bowl Center with our first selection at #21, then select two WR in the second round, #36, #50. Brian Robiskie (38 games) and Mohammed Massoquoi (54 games). DE David Velkone (14 games), Round 2, #52. Swing and a miss. Draft capital, not completely wasted …. but there’s two names, Brian Hartline and Mike Wallace …. we can analyze. Do the analytics, the formulas, the voodoo statistical magic, point to Hartline (104 games) and Wallace (132 games) as Better Selections than Robiskie and Massoquoi. Also, DE Henry Melton (80 games). Do the analytics support Melton as a better choice than Velkone? 4th round (104) LB Kaluka Maiava …. 50 games. Success. CB 90 , 6th round (177) … played 90 games, with Detroit, overcame injury. CB Coy Francies, 6th round (191) and RB James Davis, 6th round (195). Let’s say a “successful” 4th to 6th round draft pick plays >24 games? So Francies and Davis are misses. And, Julian Edelman was drafted in the 7th round (232).
2010, 8 picks … new regime. And a new regime, traditionally, in the NFL, means a different direction at Quarterback. Joe Haden at #7. The organization has a hall of fame LT, Pro Bowl Center, and now, a shutdown corner. TJ Ward, 2nd round (38), a pro bowl safety. Little at WR because we traded Braylon Edwards for a 3rd round choice plus two players, LB Jason Trusnik (26 games over two seasons) and WR Chansi Stuckey (27 games, 40 receptions, 0 TDs).
We turned this third round choice into Shaun Lauvao, G, 53 games. And, a QB was drafted in the 3rd round, #85 … McCoy is still kickin it around the league, both those choices were successes. RB Montario Hardesty, 2nd round (59) .. 23 games played. Let’s say a successful second round draft pick plays >40 games >50th positional percentile. 5th round, (160) Larry Asante, CB and 6th round (177) WR Carlton Mitchell, both misses. 6th round, (186), Clifton Geathers, DE, 40 games, although not with us. Was 2010 a successful Draft for the organization by current analytical measureables?
5-11 in 2010. It’s this run of not only losing seasons but double digit losing seasons.
2011, 8 picks. DT Phil Taylor, 1st round #21. 44 games. Jabaal Sheard, 2nd round (37), 61 games with 23 sacks. Greg Little, WR, 2nd round (59). This was the Julio Jones trade. Would it have been easier for Colt McCoy to stay healthy with Julio Jones running routes for the Cleveland Browns in 2011? TE Jordan Cameron, 4th round (102) … hit … Owen Marecic, RB, 4th round, #124 … miss … Buster Skrine, CB, 5th round (124) … hit … doubles, triples … thing about making good draft picks is you can’t always pay them beyond their rookie contract. 5th round (150) T Jason Pinkston … 25 games … 7th round (248) DB Eric Hagg … 22 games … Was this a good draft in 2011? Passing on Julio Jones, the clear cut numero uno reciever at the time, haunts us today.
5-11 in 2011.
2012 11 selections. We expend draft capital for a RB and a QB. Please tell me the analytics show how much of a reach Brandon Weeden was in the first round at #22 and hopefully this single example shows why first round draft capital is Never Expended for a Running Back. The dude from Penn State is Exceptional but we have greater needs and we feel strongly, based on empirical fucking evidence, we can find a Producer at the position with rounds 4 – 7 draft capital and we’re simply not making a RB a top 5 selection. Mitchell Schwartz, 2nd Round (37) and Travis Benjamin (4,100) are hits but one of the priorities should be cleaving the team of old regime personnel. There should only be one player on the team from this 5 year era … the last 5 years of the old ownership who we should be using as part of our model. Analyzing the draft from those last 5 years, it provides Value … LT Joe Thomas.
And, at this point in the season, we should be looking at every player to see if there’s an opportunity to turn personnel into draft capital and I strongly believe Minnesota would give us their first rounder next year for Joe Thomas’ service the rest of the season. There might be another team willing to give two picks for him. first rounder next year, second rounder in 2019. Like in baseball, teams are making their run and they need a pitcher. Football is no different and all the trading that’s been going on already in 2017 ….
Anyone else on the roster we can get third rounders for?
The Plight of the Cleveland Browns has taken shape and form in QuarterBack DeShaun Watson, Round 1, Pick 12. The guy we passed on last year, pick 2, 2016, Carson Wentz, has the Eagles 3-1 in 2017. Dark forces brother. Did Watson have to be so good, so quickly? Sigh.
Hi Paul, perhaps I can be just a little more personal with this writing. We’re already several layers deep into anonymity, this post going through two Twitter accounts, and there’s no need for me to tweet you directly because I know how Twitter works …what you see when you scroll … you only follow like 25 people, you’re kind of a famous guy … so charming with your brilliant personality, I have so much heterosexual man love for you … and this business is way too public. No need for us to be all formal with one another.
I’m also totally in love with what you’re trying to accomplish. The methods. I graduated from The Miami University, the one in Ohio bruh, Miami was a University before Florida was a state. I have an Arts Degree (history), but, come on dude, I passed Calculus. With a B. My document, my transcript, from a half way prestigious school, I mean, it’s not Yale, but, we have some standards down in Oxford … it shows the Richard T Farmer school of business wasn’t for me … An F in MicroEconomics?
Hire me as an advisor. Analyst. Analyzing players drafted between 2000-2016. Building reports to make decisions in the Spring of 2018. Problem is boss, Injury makes the model we’re trying to build invalid. The invariable variable. A constant. When you did baseball, injury didn’t impact the #analytics the way they do in pro football. It’s frustrating.
They have Prescott, we have Kessler. They have Wentz, we have Peppers and Njoku. They have Watson. Did he Have to Do So Well so quickly? Sigh. It’s one of those decisions with the capability to have haunting consequences. Houston has all the pieces to win a championship in the next two years but the draft capital traded for the selection will catch up with them eventually. What’s going to happen in the Spring of 2018, after another 1-15 season, pick #1, Round 1, 2018 and teams are offering 12 draft picks for the selection? The model eats draft capital, especially rounds 1-3, like potato chips. They’re so yummy to the model’s tummy. Add the obvious clear choice #1 QB and we, our principles, our model … are in jeopardy because people get fired in the business of pro football … a lot.
And maybe it’s okay … give me 5 minutes in front of the owner down in Jacksonville … provided the #Data is proprietary to you … and we’ll have new, better paying jobs. I don’t imagine I would find this kind of job listed in the Plain Dealer or Craigslist.,
The model requires stability. Big man should be the kind of owner who says things like “Pick 8 and 22, Round 1, 2014, set our organization back 5 years.” “Wow, does it just suck Pick 12, Round 1, 2017 is doing so well.” Sigh. “Isn’t that just Cleveland Browns luck DeShaun Watson is so good”
Surprising news out of Cleveland today, Quarterback Deshone Kizer is a healthy scratch. The Browns are going with Hogan and Kessler. After the game, it’s all about giving a young man who’s showing his grit, his determination, his effort, his ability to extend plays …. a break … take a rest kid. We’re going to see how this week goes with this game plan offensively. Is LT a problem this week? Sigh. One of the greater shames of what’s been going on in Cleveland the past 10 years will not being able to put together a competitive, playoff team during Joe Thomas’ tenure. The left side of the offensive line anchored for Every Snap since 2007? The model doesn’t see such things very often Paul.
This weekend, against the Jets, is Huge. 1-4. Phew. Because we made a change #1) we had to make and #2) saw success because we won. Are there some B.S. rules the starting QB must be announced prior to the game?
The model requires Stability. Firing the offensive staff and trying to teach our rookie QB a new scheme isn’t the answer. And firing the head coach is the absolute worst decision anyone could make. Head coach doesn’t have a problem until upper management feels all the pieces are together for playoff football and the results just aren’t happening. Three more seasons. The fans are committed. Believe it or not, they understand what’s trying to be accomplished. They understand 2018 draft capital. They’ve seen somewhat competitive games so far. One of the problems is we’ve gotten worse each game. A big piece of the puzzle defensively returns this week against the Jets. Pick 1, Round 1, 2017. I can’t wait to see him on the field. What about NT and LB? It doesn’t look optimistic for them to return. Injury makes the model invalid. We should all be immediately terminated.
And, if you read this far, 775 words, I’m going to add … can someone from the coaching staff reach out to Jeff Fisher and discuss getting the most out of #18? His long term deal was a terrible idea. Of all the guys on the market, this is the guy we’re going to give 4 years, $32M? You looked too much at the analytics and I’d say cut him today. Certainly after the season. Success will also be measured in “dead” money. The business of professional football is dastardly like in Moneyball when you had to tell Tony Pena he got traded to the Tigers. And you were right, he was an All Star. Injury makes the model invalid but we’re going to build it anyway. Fuck injury.
Your team deserves someone faithful. A believer. A believer in what you’re trying to accomplish. The analytics say 6 of the next 12 games are “winnable”. Can we start Sunday? It would make things a whole lot easier.
$50 an hour, I’ll bill you 34 total hours between 10-6-2017 and 11-15-2017.
Week 2 of the 2017 NFL season is getting ready to wrap up with Monday Night Football featuring the Detroit Lions playing in New Jersey against the New York Giants.
The Cleveland Browns? 0-2. Injury. Second year receiver Corey Coleman broke his hand and will miss several weeks. Coleman broke the same hand in the same week in back to back season. Powerful forces align against the Cleveland Browns … forces more powerful than you can possibly comprehend … what are the odds the same guy breaks the same hand in the same week two years in a row? Astronomical … to the point mathematics Prove dark forces align against a cursed organization.
The Cleveland Browns franchise has won two Super Bowls so one cannot refer to the Current Cleveland Browns as a Franchise. In 1996, the Franchise played it’s first game as the Baltimore Ravens and the history of the Cleveland Browns franchise diverts to Maryland. The expansion Cleveland Browns have been cursed by poor draft picks. Tim Couch, the consensus #1 pick when the new Cleveland Browns got things going in 1999 when the new Browns had their first draft. There’s the infamous bust pick the next year, Courtney Brown … read this list of draft picks from 1999-2002.
Kevin Johnson, Rahim Abdullah, Dennis Northcutt, Travis Prentice, JaJuan Dawson, Gerard Warren … (the browns picked third in the 2001 NFL draft after holding the top selection in back to back seasons. Hall of Fame Running Back Ladainian Tomlinson was selected #5.) James Jackson, William Green (16th pick in 2002. Soon to be Hall of Fame Safety Ed Reid was taken by the Cleveland Browns franchise eight picks later. Dark forces). These aren’t a list of names screaming success in the NFL. Certainly some were “functional” … 2002 was the last time the organization of the Cleveland Browns made the playoffs. The Cleveland Browns Franchise won another Super Bowl since the last time the Cleveland Browns made the playoffs. The last time a team called the Cleveland Browns Won a playoff game? 1994.
The 2017 NFL season is quickly imploding for the Browns. Injury. #1 pick Myles Garrett tweaked his ankle 5 days before the first game and has yet to play. Now Coleman. Wide Receiver, before the Coleman injury, was already one the thinnest and least experienced group in the league … with a rookie QB … a scenario describing this actual reality couldn’t be scripted … Coleman breaking his hand in the second game of the season this year too. Myles Garrett tweaking his ankle …
The defense has been a bright spot during the 2017 season and will only get better when Garrett is available to return. 0-16. Disaster. People might get fired which is the biggest mistake the Browns could make … the model requires Consistency.
Plus, there’s a whole lotta draft capital in the 2018 draft. two first round picks plus three in the second round. 5 selecctions in the first 64! We don’t have the $105 million in salary cap, however, the 2018 projection is $48 million under, creating opportunity to address team needs in free agency. The Browns are the youngest team in the NFL, almost 1.5 years younger than league average. Browns believers … we’re not just Browns fans … we’re Believers … should understand 2017 is a Building Year. And don’t say the Browns are always rebuilding … the Browns are Recovering from a disastrous 2014 draft. Justin Gilbert and Johnny Manziel. The Manziel selection set the organization behind 5 years. 16 games of experience for the most youthful team in the league is goal #1 this year. Stay healthy everyone, avoid Injury. Injury literally makes any model constructed from data and analytics Invalid because of it’s uncertainty and Certainty … injuries in the National Football League Will Occur.
And Kizer? Jury is still out. And here’s the thing about another 1-15 season … I believe the Cleveland Browns will defeat the Indianapolis Colts (without Andrew Luck) behind strong running and good defense … perhaps the #1 selection in the 2018 NFL Draft … there are teams willing to trade Significant Draft Capital (We want 10 picks) for the rights to Sam Darnold and perhaps three other QBs. After the QB trade craziness in 2017 for DeShaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes, I can only expect 2018 will be even more ridiculous when it comes to the exchange of Draft Capital for QB needy franchises. And, a list of names for the beleaguered Browns to follow … Carson Wentz and Watson, QBs passed in Exchange for Future Draft Capital.
And bruh, the Model does not like this idea of “franchise QB”. The model really likes a Hall of Fame QB … yet hates paying a single position 17-20 percent of the Salary Cap. And there’s some data to this scenario to analyze. Matthew Stafford. Ryan Tannehill. Joe Flacco. I know he won a Superbowl but so did Trent Dilfer. Throw some analytics on those two players … how similar are they when compared? Andrew Luck.
The model really loves a guy like Tom Brady … not only because of his sexy manly looks … because the past two seasons, his cap hit has been 8.75% and increases to roughly 13% of the total available salary cap in 2018.
Analytics is changing the way professional football in america is being played. Browns believers should understand their organization is light years ahead of other NFL franchises when it comes to these new analytics developed from #Data. Future Draft Capital … a young, aggressive defense showing Potential with an entire season of experience. 2018 Could be exciting.
A jury out rookie Quarterback with a Rocket Arm and the ability to make plays with his legs throwing to a thin and now decimated WR corps. Turnovers. The game of football is virtually impossible to win when the ball is turned over five times. We managed two turnovers so the net was minus 3 … I want to see a list of teams who won their respective game when the turnover differential was minus 3. 47.6 percent of attempted passes were completed. Drops. In key moments. Browns believers should understand these were division games with a rookie QB … were the browns ever out of the game? … like didn’t have a chance at all? … in either of these two losses to open the 2017 NFL Season?
A great concern for the Browns is the offensive line … 10 sacks already this season and few openings for the ground game. The offensive line was an area where significant 2017-2020 Salary Cap Capital was Invested. Three new starters coupled with Cement on the left side … Joe Thomas, thank you for your service. Guy hasn’t missed a Snap in 10 plus years. The model … a winning NFL Franchise … loves Longevity … plus a rookie on the right side … the unit needs more time to gel. Browns believers should understand these things.
It might be helpful if the owner of the Browns or someone high up took the time to explain these things. Beg for even more patience. Patience is a godly quality.
“This season is about experience. We have a young group of guys who are working diligently to come together, gel … on both sides of the ball. We’ve been encouraged by the play of our defense we believe is going to continue improving. Injury has taken it’s toll, we’re hoping Myles continues to improve and can return to the practice field soon. We thank you for being Browns fans … you’re by far the most patient group of fans in the world. We ask you to continue to trust us … trust the things we’ve done the past two seasons, not just on the field, but off it … the acquisition of multiple first and second round draft picks … trust our plan to utilize all available analytics to deliver a winning product on Sunday’s.”
Week 3 of the 2017 NFL Season, for the Cleveland Browns, on the road. Franchise A has a QB (Kizer) making his second career start. Franchise B’s franchise QB costing 12% of the cap is injured so their QB (Brissett) is making his fourth career start and been around the professional game for one year longer … virtually equal. We play clean on the road in Indianapolis … our defense continues to gel and grow … more running lanes open … a win week 3 is realistic.
A week 3 win with back to back home games against the New York Jets and Houston Texans (a game where our guy has more career NFL starts than their guy, and also the guy we Passed on) … bruh, 3-2 would turn some fans into believers because I would take the time to write about all these things and people could read them and develop Understanding, not just What the Cleveland Browns are doing but How they’re doing it. With data and analytics the likes of which you’ve never seen.
Can’t look into the crystal ball too much … Weeks 4 and 5 of the 2017 NFL Season … it’s all about this week and the road game against a team not playing good football. We have a good chance bruh and all things being equal, this may be the biggest game for the Browns since 1999. There’s been plenty of big games for the Cleveland Browns franchise (The ravens winning multiple super bowls and all) … this week, on the road in Indianapolis … the organization really needs a win.
Because at some point … the lack of wins is going to start costing people their jobs. The model somewhat hates reality while Adoring Consistency because the reality of the National Football League is losing equals firing. Look at all the firing the Cleveland Browns did between 2010 and 2015. It equated to Losing. If they considered all the data regarding number of people fired versus winning percentage, everyone in upper management would feel like they have the most secure job in the world. Simply not reality.
Hey Paul, the 2017 NFL draft is measured in days …. are you going to pick Mitch Trubisky?
Or are you going to build a defense? And no one is going to blame you for taking OJ Howard with the twelfth. Give the franchise QB, though I understand all the points on the pass rusher, a guy to throw to in 2018 in the middle of the field with Howard’s season of experience. His third season in 2019.
It’s a talented draft in the secondary in 2017. These Safeties and Corners going in the first 6 picks? … and the possibility of Jabrill Peppers at #33? Problem with Howard and Peppers … they’ll be gone before you pick and the temptation will be to grab QB at 12 when the many times mentioned Cam Robinson will still be on the board. I don’t believe some of these Prognosticators who believe an offensive lineman isn’t going to be selected in the first 15 picks. Three running backs in the first 22 selections, two in the first 8?
Come on Paul, this offseason showed the reality of the RB position in the New NFL … and there are so many talented guys at that position for rounds 5,6 and 7. Ezekiel Elliott was a special talent … every down because he does Everything so Well. After Elliot’s selection at #4, the next running back taken was #45 …. the heisman trophy and national champion Derrick Henry in a trade, Tennessee moved up to select him. The next running back at #73.
Yet, in 2017, 3 running backs are selected in the first 17 picks. The prognosticators … Jacksonville selecting Fournette at #4? Cam Robinson coming off everyone’s board and all of the sudden Garrett Bolles, Forrest Lamp, and the Wisconsin Offensive Lineman come off the board earlier than expected.
Again, you’re thwarted at #12 and there might be some talk of QB when a name like Marshon Lattimore is on the board. Any chance of getting Sherman? Second rounder? Salary cap isn’t an issue … could the organization get 3 more pro bowl seasons? The data on Derrelle Revis tells an important story about the position of CB and age.
Suppose a Sherman Trade to the organization occurred … Robinson and Howard are gone … you’ve addressed the secondary in a big way … maybe someone wants to trade down …. look at these pass rushers available because the secondary players and offensive linemen were more Valued in 2017 than originally Estimated. Bookend QB Terrors … it’s a Gregg Williams run 4-3 with Jamie Collins leading the NFL in tackles during the 2017 season because you picked Trubisky and the defense was on the field Way Too Often and the organization went 1-15 and you can’t pick Sam Darnold with the #1 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, you already have Trubisky, although maybe another team mortgages the farm and since you took a “franchise guy” in 2017 you’ll take the draft capital … then make all the wrong picks … and get fired.
The Jets are developing two prospects and signed a veteran. The 49ers signed two veterans and will probably draft at least one after round 2. The Bills are giving Tyrod Taylor a chance and will be looking for offensive weapons … it’s why Howard might not be available … Mike Williams could be the pick or Corey Davis … which is a dream for you Mr. DePodesta because it creates the scenario of Howard being available at 12.
Trubisky, Watson, and Kizer are going to be taken later in the first round by teams like the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers, teams with aging franchise QBs showing Decline. Green Bay showed you the model … draft a guy who Learns a couple years behind the Franchise QB …
The prognosticators have the organization taking S at #33. I love the prediction. They all also have you taking QB at 12 which disappoints. One of the issues … the organization is creating an atmosphere were Trubisky is in play … listening to proposals for the #1 pick …. and there aren’t any. Phone is pretty silent because with the Defensive Linemen available in the first 15 picks … no one is giving up the farm for Trubisky.
And there’s no way you’re passing on the best NFL Prospect Ever at #1.
DE, TE, S, did the Sherman deal happen? …. CB … there’s a better prospect in the third round to play RT than current roster options plus we want our offensive line to be Stout And Deep … CBS sports prognosticator has the organization taking Garrett #1 then Trading with San Francisco for the #2 to select Trubisky. OMG, is everyone Trying To Get Fired?
DE, TE, S, CB, OL/Tackle, CB, RB, WR, WR, S, OL – totals 11 picks for 2017.
You’re building a SuperBowl LV winner and North Carolina simply isn’t the guy. Paul, they’re Valuing “Franchise QB” too highly … there’s a difference between “Franchise QB” and Hall of Famer. Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, both Mannings, Rodgers, a solid case for Rivers although Post Season is going to carry greater weight at the New NFL New Hall of Fame. Tannehill, Taylor, Alex Smith, Flacco, Andy Dalton, Carson Palmer, Matthew Stafford … are these “franchise QBs”? Postseason results say No. It’s too soon on QBs like … Russell Wilson … sure, he won the title, now there’s the Expectation … Mariota, Winston, Cousins … they just simply don’t want to pay him $20 million a year longterm. Andrew Luck … he was a model because they cut the Veteran and played him from Day 1 because he was the future of the franchise. Well Mr. Luck, it’s been 5 years, you have the Franchise Contract hitting $25 million, and we did win a SuperBowl on the guy you replaced … the Colts were no stranger to the AFC Championship Game and you’re not going to get back in 2017 because the conference is too talented at the top and the Colts organizations has too many holes. Dalvin Cook? There’s no way Ryan Ramczyk makes it past the Colts.
QB is the most important and complicated position in the New NFL. Plus, what if Osweiler impresses in the preseason working with the first team offense? The schedule isn’t available yet … one could make an argument based on preseason performance “winning the job” combined with some early season favorable scheduling creates a situation for Osweiler to Excel. What if Osweiler has a Pro Bowl Season?
The organization have created the atmosphere of Osweiler “not being in the plans” for trade purposes. Again, crickets. no one is calling for him and he’s eager to prove himself in the non pressure situation in Cleveland during the 2017 NFL Season. No expectations … the Browns aren’t going to the playoffs …
We’ll see if Osweiler makes it through draft day a Brown.
5 Apr 2017
The draft nears Mr. DePodesta. and what’s the deal, you Tweet something and get two likes and one share? Come on bro, you should be way more popular on that forum. I’ve written you previously. Here and Here
Twice actually. Truth is, over the past few days, I pounded out 5,000 words about my girlfriend and need to start burying the post … among all the others that, you know, didn’t get read.
Free Agency is kind of over, although Romo going to the broadcasting booth is going to cause some movement at the position making the Cleveland Browns so Intriguing … what are the Browns going to do at QuarterBack?
Well, you made a big splash acquiring the Houston Guy. Now, there may be a legitimate trade partner for him … 2nd round pick. His salary has already been paid for this season. “Hey, you want a Free QB for This season?”
But, I don’t think so. He can get his chance in Cleveland and it was a pretty brilliant move because last I saw, you’re carrying $61 million to 2018 and we can’t talk about 2018 free agency yet because it’s too far in the future. Money is there in 2018 and free agency doesn’t Hurt the organization next year. Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen … those names Excite more than Trubisky, Watson, Kizer … teams are going to mortgage their farms like they did in 2012 (RGII) and 2016 (Goff) … to get one of these guys. You, Mr. DePodesta, will have the draft Capital to make a move for one of these guys .. or, more likely Mr. DePodesta, based on recent results … you’ll be in position to get one of these three guys plus Others who moved their way up 2018 draft boards because of their performance (Trubisky).
8-8 in 2017? How about 2-14. You improved one game, have the #2 pick because San Francisco was That Bad, and it’s a Winston/Mariota thing like in 2014. That’s a quick crystal ball into 2018.
8-8 in 2017? If you get the first 5 draft picks Correct. OJ Howard at #12? It’s the New NFL and these Tight Ends shredding the middle of the field the way they do in the New NFL … and Howard has all the Tools … no one would blame you taking him #12, if he’s there …
2-14 in 2017? Because you played “Franchise QB” in 2017 instead of holding off giving Osweiler the Chance to Lead, Kessler the chance to Back Up, and drafted a guy with the fourth round pick to Develop. Do we live in a world where you’re going to take a guy with 13 collegiate starts over the best prospect ever in this DE from Texas A&M? No way, but I’ve seen the mocks where they have you taking 13 college start guy with the Twelfth. Instead of Elite Secondary Prospect or … Taking that final piece to the Massive Offensive Line … The Alabama Tackle … he’ll play RT … oooh, Mr. DePodesta … the vibes are sexy and remember, I only offer you an opportunity to read.
Secondary help with the next three choices … Sure, a QB at pick 95 …
10-6 in 2017? Brock could play, we could run, Garrett really helped the unit get after the opposing QB, Britt made the big catches keeping the offensive on the field, Coleman developed into one of the best “take it to the house” receivers, and in the late rounds in 2017, rounds 5-7, You drafted backs and receivers ….
It’s important to get these first 5 picks correct Mr. DePodesta. It can’t be a QB with one of the picks. The team has too many Other Needs and there are Better Prospects Available … the Best Player Available Mentality. Your division opponent in Pittsburgh has been doing this for years … and, they nailed their franchise QB in 2004. Sure am glad the organization passed on that Ohio Guy and took Kellen Winslow. Brilliant.
The history Mr. DePodesta … it doesn’t Bode Well for future prognostication. The organization will get these first five draft picks Wrong and it’s 3-13. Grab your guy in 2018 … with another massive amount of draft capital … get those picks wrong and maybe someday, fans of the Cleveland Browns will Celebrate Not Finishing in Last Place in the AFC North.
And hey, great job on that Guard from Cincinnati. And the Center from Green Bay … Stay Away Injury Bug …
Try to save some money for Khalil Mack … the Raiders have to pay their QB $20MM, it’s difficult to pay another guy $20MM because he’ll Command that Price. New Orleans … Indianapolis …. Miami … Detroit … they’re all paying “Franchise” QBs over $20MM. Is this going to equate to success in 2017? It didn’t in 2016. Sure, a couple on that list made the playoffs … one game and out … and something like that for the Cleveland Browns in the next 3 years … a playoff appearance … it’s just too lofty a goal.
get these first five draft picks in a few weeks Correct … and maybe, for the first time since 1993, when Bill Belichick was head coach and Nick Saban was Defensive Coordinator … the Cleveland Browns will have a smidgen (crossword puzzle word) of Hope.
76 Lou Groza Blvd
Berea, Ohio 44017
You’re bringing Metrics to the NFL. Anyone Not Tearing down their team and running it in the same manner as you in 5 years will be watching the Cleveland Browns win the SuperBowl multiple times. I’ve seen the movie.
In a few months, you’ll participate in your second NFL Draft. Your first, magnificent. Everyone agreed. 2017 is when some judgement can be made on the quality of draft picks the organization acquired in 2016. 2017s top priority? More picks in 2018 without sacrificing any of the first 3 picks in 2017.
I’m not here to write you a long letter about what to do with with the #1 overall pick. Priority #1 in the NFL. Get to the opposing quarterback. Disrupt him. Sack him. Tackles for Loss.
It’s pick #12 I offer some perhaps wisdom if you will. Cosmic Wisdom.
The metrics, the numbers, the scouting reports, etc., on a Prospect point in the right direction but the NFL is chock full of those numbers not equating to on the field success. This isn’t baseball Paul.
Trade Joe Thomas to Minnesota. The Vikings are all in for 2017 … it’s superbowl or bust for the franchise. Joe would have a legitimate chance for a title. Cleveland owes him this chance, he earned it. You want their first rounder next year and their second rounder this year. It flows brother, it makes sense …. i’m not a salary cap guy, i think everyone in Minnesota is on board on renegotiating so the team can make the necessary acquisitions for a Conference Title Run. There won’t be a Conference Title Run for the Cleveland Browns in 2017.
A large “hole” has been created on the offensive line at the most important position … Rule #2, Protect Your Quarterback. At pick #12, Cam Robinson is extremely realistic. Hue has dealt with “character issues” in the past. It’s a “risk” … do the metrics say Cam Robinson can play a right handed quarterbacks “blind side” and play it well for the next 5 years?
Picks 33, 46 (From Minnesota), 52, 65, 97… Safety help. Let’s hope the other Joe who plays Corner can get past some of those nagging injuries. The NFL is a “young” mans game … Another Corner. Another offensive Lineman. More help in the secondary. Linemen and Defensive Players. They’re “safer” picks.
Terrelle, WR1 money … he earned it … with a hometown discount. Your “franchise” QuarterBack can Never have too many offensive weapons. Isiah/Duke, Abdullah/Riddick in Detroit, the Lions were really special on offense when those two were healthy … the combination backfield is the New NFL standard.
Injury, the unpredictable. How big of a factor was “Injury” in MLB when compared to the NFL and contract negotiation? … it’s a crusher and something a franchise has to react … no way to prepare for “injury”, except at Quarterback where you have to shell out $4MM to the position. One of the beauties of Kessler, he can fill that role at a cheap price. Injury “history”, I’d love to put together a data set with Combine Metrics and Injury … not season ending injury … injuries resulting in a few games missed … is there a correlation? Mmmm. Mineable Data.
One of the points of this Letter is Quarterback and the NFL Draft in 2017 with 6 scheduled picks in the first 97 overall … Not this year. Maybe in 2018 you’re in the right draft position or have the right draft capital in 2018 to make a move for someone you believe can lead the Cleveland Browns to a Superbowl in the next 5 years. Someone you’re going to make very wealthy when their rookie contract expires because they want to lead the Cleveland Browns to multiple SuperBowls over the next 10 years. It’s a rare find and there’s so much pressure to find the “franchise” QB … what does that even mean Paul, a “franchise” QB?
Ask John Elway if he considers Tony Romo a “franchise” QB? Jerry wants a pick and Elway is going to wait until he gets cut because the Cowboys cannot take the salary cap hit with him on the books for 2017. Jay Cutler. Veteran QBs with proven success, however, the injury history makes them less sexy … Like RGIII … Kessler and McCown will work at the position for 2017. I had these visions of RGIII marching the Browns down field scoring TouchDowns in droves, punishing opponents, in Important Divisional Games. Injury. Stay healthy Mr. Griffin.
An NFL franchise should never be “pressured” to get their franchise QB This year with their first round draft pick. There’s too much Risk. Risk Mitigation + Player Personnel Decisions + Championships + 5th/6th round 5000 Carat Diamonds …
Last year, you acquired Capital instead of a “franchise” QB. Jared Goff should have been the starter in Los Angeles from Day 1. It cost Jeff Fisher his job. They traded the farm for him. How can he NOT be the starter from Day 1? How nice would it be if Goff had 15 starts under his belt heading into the 2017 season? Week 2 was the time to make the decision, the Rams got blown out 28-0 against San Francisco, a team that won 2 games all year. Perhaps the last of the old guard from Bill Walsh’s coaching tree. Run the ball, play great defense. It’s the new NFL Paul. The game changed.
Carson Wentz? he’ll be starting for Eagles, barring injury, through his rookie contract. Ryan Tannehill? … he got the “franchise” QB money after his rookie contract and while they made the playoffs this year, he hasn’t taken the next championship level step. QuarterBack, the most important position on the field and the most difficult decision for a NFL Franchise … In Cleveland, let’s Protect the Position with a Stout Offensive Line with Backs who can catch the ball in NonObvious Passing Situations. The middle of the field exploited with a strong option. Receivers who can catch a 4 yard slant and take it 65 yards. A 2 yard screen 73 yards. A big physical receiver when you need 6 yards. The physical back who get you out of 3rd and 2 and keep the opposing defense on the field. The secret in Cleveland … the described desireables are already on the team, there’s not a lot of early Draft Capital to invest at the skill positions.
906 words. And, i’m a terrible proof reader. When I finish this “letter”, I’m going to print it and Fax it. It’s an old “salesman” trick. Don’t send an email … send a fax …. the response rate on them is ridiculously high and I’m not looking for a “response” … I want to know the document arrived at the offices and there won’t be any excuses. The only excuses would be the document didn’t get passed to the right person OR the document was passed and not “read”.
The pressure is going be tremendous if the Browns go 2-14 in 2017 while not making a move in the “franchise” QB in the 2017 draft, especially if DeShaun Watson excels. This kid from North Carolina? 11 College Starts? I want to mine data … I want to see a list of names of QBs drafted with less than 25 career “College” starts from 1970-2014. Pass Rusher. Offensive Lineman and if Cam Robinson didn’t work out at 12, safety … Peppers from Michigan …. he fills other positional “needs” and is the new S/LB hybrid … Mark Barron in LA and Deonne Buchannon in Arizona. Does the 3-3-5 defensive formation have an official name? 4-3, 3-4 … old NFL. These decisions on player personnel … above our pay grades … I believe people like you and I only offer “advice”. Would the draft capital obtained from trading Joe Thomas to Minnesota outweigh the “hole” created and options to fill the need? Perhaps you kept Thomas, took Cam Robinson 12th, and let him play right tackle. An instant starter on your offensive line. Protect Our Quarterback. Supposedly the Browns “grade” on Garrett is “astronomical”. The pundits have you staying out of the Quarterback game in the draft this year but I can envision some “pressure” to pick Watson after his performance against Alabama. I saw some fodder Watson would be available at pick #33 but not after the Alabama game, he’s going in the first round.
Best of luck in the upcoming draft and upcoming season. 10-6 and a wildcard for the Cleveland Browns?
I didn’t even bring up Free Agency. Overpay for Trumaine Johnson. For 2017 and 2018. 4 year contracts with 0 cap hit in 2019 and 2020. Can those be accomplished? “Dead” Money. Use free agency as a tool to potentially acquire more draft capital.
What about the franchise tag? Pryor?
The tools available to build your franchise. How they’re used. An insiders perspective. It fascinates me. When does the roster expand and you can sign Undrafted Free Agents? 50,000 carat diamonds.
I don’t know Who Makes the decisions in Cleveland regarding personnel. Final decision. After 1-15 in 2016 and picking Cody Kessler in the third round, a guy you could have signed as an Undrafted Free Agent, and Dak Prescott taken by Dallas a round later? People get fired in this business Paul … a lot … the entire Browns organization should be listening to every opinion. That’s all this is … a 1400 word Opinion on the Cleveland Browns 2017 season.
Pick #1 – Myles Garrett
Pick #12 – Cam Robinson
Pick #33 – Marcus Maye
Pick #52 – Sidney Jones
Pick #65 – Dion Dawkins
Pick #97 – Someone who can play C/G … Like Bitonio … why do I feel like Reno is starting at center next season?
After these 6 scheduled picks … back 7 on the defensive side, linemen on both sides of the ball, a youthful RB who fits the New NFL Mode in Round 5. The last 3 rounds of the NFL Draft? 5,000 carat diamonds. You’d think a 5,000 carat diamond would be easy to find … nah, just the opposite … think of the process required to make a diamond and the process used by the NFL “establishment” to evaluate talent. What makes a succesful NFL player? Performance on the Field is merely a single data point. You can’t make decisions based on a single data point. Data point weight … how important is on the field performance at the collegiate level and … international level … who is scouring Europe for the next Margus Hunt and other international players? The Cleveland Browns should be ahead of the curve on the new International NFL Game when it comes to international players because I wrote you a letter and made suggestions. 36 NFL Teams operating in 2022, 18 games, 70 player roster … there’s going to be a lot more “opportunity” to play professional American Football.
$25 Billion. There’s too much money being made and the market exists in London, Toronto, St. Louis, San Diego, Oakland, Jacksonville … it’s all about the Stadium and there won’t be enough NFL teams to please everyone AND the NFL is giving around $250mm to build the venue. The top hats think they can keep the expansion a secret. There’s no point in announcing until the new players agreement in 2021. Hopefully everyone is of the sensibility to give the players their “fair” share. 7 years ago when the new contract ended a lockout probably seems like yesterday to those involved. Now, it’s only 4 years away. Be fair to the players.
The NFL in 2030 … a $30 billion dollar a year sports league. Cleveland Browns, 5 Time SuperBowl Champion.