April 4, 2018 | Posted in: Publishing

This scenario Assumes Odell stays and the Giants don’t trade the #2 pick.

1.  The Cleveland Browns get it wrong.  Because they’re a cursed organization.  The QBs passed on by the Browns will all have Hall of Fame careers.  At least Pro Bowlers.  Because that’s how things work And what happens when you select a Quarterback with 23 collegiate starts, a QB with Turnover issues.
2. The Giants take Saquon Barkley.  They’re all in this season with a Hall of Fame QB in his twilight.  The New York Football Giants are in a 2 year window to win a title and Barkley fills a HUGE need for them and is being called the best prospect at the position in a decade with comparisons to Marshall Faulk.
3. Shit starts to get crazy after the Jets pick.  They moved up to 3 to take a QB and with Barkley taken second, they get whatever QB the Browns didn’t want.  Josh Rosen.  Hall of Famer.  It’s how things work with the Browns.  With the Browns picking at 4, Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen still on the board, a team Will call to move ahead of Denver because they’re in the market for a Franchise QB of the future, even though they signed Case Keenum.  Elway’s goal is to NEVER pick this high in the draft again, ever … I think Josh Allen is his guy and could see Denver moving up 1 spot just to make sure they get their guy.  Many pundits expect a trade at 4 … most agree Buffalo makes the most sense … I offer two other contenders … Washington and Arizona.  What?  Washington signed Alex Smith … Arizona signed Sam Bradford … those names aren’t the future in those places and with Allen and Mayfield still available … In short, the Browns are in a position to acquire future Draft Capital.  The names associated with the pick … Bradley Chubb, Saquon Barkley (not available at 4), Minkah Fitzpatrick (sliding) … Quenton Nelson … they don’t make sense for the Browns for various reasons and picking twice in the first round next year is Better.
4. 6 QBs in the first round … Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen, Lamar Jackson, Mason Rudolph … and they’re All gone earlier than expected … 6 QBs in the first 15 picks?  Talk about a time to be trading down.  And speaking of Trading, wow, I sure don’t remember this many NFL trades EVER … 2018 has been the year of trading players for draft capital … #analytics are here to stay fellas.  The MORE you Try and Rebel against it, the quicker the analytics will eat you up and cost you your job.
5. The ripple effect … with 6 of 32 picks being QBs …  since 2001, the most QBs to go in the first round is 4 … there’s first round talent available picks 33-35.  The Browns will get these picks wrong as well because they’re a cursed franchise AND they’re making sure Everyone Knows, whatever this #analytics thing is, we’re doing the EXACT opposite of it … Dorsey and his crew of nonwinning flunkies are going to do it the traditional old school football way … and ruin the franchise if they get these first 4 draft picks Wrong … starting with the first overall pick … if they pick the wrong QB, we will have set the franchise back another 5 years … and what football geniuses, we’re going to go ahead and make sure the #1 overall pick at QB doesn’t see the field in 2018.  Hue Jackson calling Tyrod Taylor the starter sounds like Alexander Haig running around saying “i’m in charge here”.

At what point does Hue Jackson get fired?  0-1?  0-2?  0-3?  0-4?  0-5?  When does Darnold Start?  0-6?  0-7?  0-8?  after the bye week?  Because we’re a cursed organization, we were dealt a tough hand when it comes to teams scheduled … The NFC South, Tampa, New Orleans, Carolina, and Atlanta … We haven’t had any recent success against Cincinnati, Baltimore and Pittsburgh so why should we expect success against these teams in 2018?  The coaching, on our end, will the be the same and the difference in this league Paul is Coaching.

Luckily for us, I believe this to be down years for all 3 of those AFC foes but Hue will find a way to lose those games.

From a strategy perspective, how do we build the New NFL Coaching Staff?  We look for examples, examples where success has been achieved.  Like the LA Rams.

… i so admire you’re sexy evil genius … None of the pressure on these 2018 picks is on you, you’re just the guy who put the organization in this position when it comes to the 2018 NFL Draft ….

The LA Rams … look at the coaching titles … run game coordinator, pass game coordinator … McVay, a Miami of Ohio Kid … schooled Hue Jackson all year long calling plays.  When Hue gets fired, Strategy should have some ideas put together for big man on how we should adapt our next coaching staff.  Notice how they have a couple of true coaching vets with their 30 year old head coach … Wade Phillips, John Fassell … he’s surrounded by 20 year coaching vets.

Interior Lineman, Free Safety, Corner, Wide Receiver … Left Tackle … these are Team Needs.  Trading down at 4 gives us even more capital to address those Glaring Team Needs.  Best Player Available philosophy doesn’t work with me … Bradley Chubb at #4, he might be the best player available but DE in Williams 4-3 set, DE ranks behind those 5 needs listed at the beginning of the paragraph … people want to act like we’re building rocket ships or something, it’s football, we have 5 draft picks in the first 65 selections and 5 huge needs (RB and DE NOT being ONE of them).  Does coaching care to weigh in with an opinion?  Is there any disagreement on this list of the Top 5 Team Needs?

Did you go to big man about the possibility of switching to a 3-4 defense because it better suited personnel, especially with the emergence of Joe Schobert and James Burgess (Collins returning) and especially especially Danny Shelton playing 3-4 NT?  a guy we needed to extend?  So the front office traded Shelton?  It’s like Tony Pena all over again.

From a Strategy Perspective, hiring “football” guys in the front office was always the plan.  However, the organization might have to go through the process of hiring the Right “football guys”.  All that pressure Mr. Dorsey to get these first 5 draft picks right.

Rosen – which QB is the Most Likely to be a Hall of Famer?  Mayfield – which QB is the “safest” selection.  Mitigate risk.  Perhaps a principle of drafting.

1.1 – Rosen

1.4 – Traded.  Even if You personally had to call teams and be like, “look, I don’t really want this pick at all, so hey buffalo, it will only cost you 1.12 and 3.1 plus your 2019 first rounder.”  It’s like picking up a guaranteed top 15 pick, in addition to our own pick, Top 5, guaranteed.  Buffalo could go 2-14 this season.  Buffalo plays the NFC North this year … Minnesota, Detroit, Green Bay .. Chicago … Things are so much easier if we had Trubisky on the roster, it really was the best call … plus the Chargers, Baltimore, and Houston …. I wonder when DeShaun Watson and Carson Wentz will return in 2018?  The guys we passed on are rehabbing ACLs … and we’re picking 6 times in the top 65.  Who’s ahead?  Time will tell … injury makes the model Invalid.

1.12 – Vita Vea or Da’Ron Payne – Interior Linemen was a need before the Shelton Trade … it’s not hard to read between the lines, the decision to trade him doesn’t make a lot of sense, and we didn’t get That much for him … with the 2019 third rounder, we have a 50/50 shot of finding a cheaper replacement.  A house cleaning move?  Now, all the draft picks before 2016 are gone?

2.1 – Isaiah Oliver, Carlton Davis, Mike Hughes, Jaire Alexander, and Donte Jackson could All be first round picks.  If there’s one of these guys available at pick 33 overall, we should jump all over them because they’re first round talents, with a priority on 6’0″ and above.

2.4 – Best Available LT tryout candidate … we have needs at LT and RT.  One of these first 3 picks has to address the need.  The model Loves guys who can play T/G or G/C – or T/G/C but I don’t see many prospects listed at those positions.  Connor Willams, Brian O’Neill .. Orlando Brown and especially Isaiah Wynn … listed at T/G/C as a prospect ..

2.32 – Best Available safety.  The model loves a prospect listed as S/CB.  Hey Paul, can the guy I pay $4MM annually to kick the football also “punt” the football?  Can the 2 centers (guys who snap the football?) on the roster also Snap the football to my holder (hopefully a backup QB) on a Field Goal Try?  It would free up 2 roster slots I can use on Offensive Lineman and Defensive Lineman.  Ronnie Harrison and Justin Reid are a couple names of safeties who could be available at the end of the second round.

If we keep 4, Minkah Fitzpatrick is the only prospect worth this selection because he can play Free Safety or Corner, including the opponents route running TE, and he’s tough on the run.   When do we put Fitzpatrick on the opponents best receiver?  0-1?  0-2?  0-3?  0-4?   0-5?  After the bye week?

3.1 Best Interior Defensive Lineman.  With a 3rd round defensive lineman selection, we have a 50/50 shot of finding a 3 year starter.  Rasheem Green, Trenton Thompson, Harrison Phillips, Maurice Hurst … Hurst is a guy who would offer tremendous value if he’s available at this selection, one of the analytics houses has Hurst at 1.4 … he’s that talented but teams are going to shy away from him because of his medical issues.

4.14 Best Available OT.  The needs are at RT and LT … the first principle of our playoff football team is protect our quarterback.  Austin Corbett, Jamarco Jones, Brandon Parker.

5.14 Best Available RB.  Priority on prospects who did “poorly” on the 40 yard dash.  Mark Walton, Josh Adams, Royce Freeman … which RB, on the board in round 5, pick 14, can play every down?  New England, and Belichick, they’re creating a model on RB rotation and Usage .. how they’re used … the formations they’re used …

6th round (174 overall) … best available WR.  Of these names, Allen Lazard, Jake Wieneke, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Dylan Cantrell, and Chris Lacey scored the highest in “route running”.  Scouting’s list should be easy to sort and filter.  Let’s go with WR prospects available in the sixth round based on size … 6’3″ or taller ….

6th round (205 overall).  Best Defensive Tackle available.

We traded away a lot of our mid round draft capital … Joe Schobert home run opportunities, it makes the pressure of the first 4 selections even greater.  What’s scounting say about Nathan Shepherd?

This draft #scenario is brought to you by one of your strategy lackies.  I’d like coaching to make a constructive argument against this scenario and philosophy of drafting based on Team Needs as priority one.  Does coaching disagree these positions are of the most need?  The actual player selection, that’s on the front office.  And I already know the front office crew isn’t open to suggestions … they’re going to do it their way and take all the input they Want to take in and consider, not necessarily All of the Input available on not selecting the best available player, selecting the player Most Likely to become a league average starter for 3 years at a position where we need a different option than we had in 2017.  0 wins.

Maybe set the bar higher.  Which of these players at this particular selection at this particular point in the draft are most likely to be a Hall of Famer at this position on the field, a Huge Need for our team in 2018?  This could be the standard for first round picks.  Rounds 2-3.  All Pro.  Who’s most likely to be all pro at this position with this selection in the second round, again, based on our 2018 Team Needs?  Rounds 4-6.  Pro Bowlers.  Who’s most likely to be a Pro Bowler with this selection in rounds 4-6.  Round 7, 3 year league average starter … who’s most likely to become a league average starter with this 7th round choice?

UDFA?  Who’s most likely to make the team and contribute as a league average starter?

Did Hard Knocks call yet?  You could so help them handling publicity with your experience.  Let them eat cake.