October 12, 2017 | Posted in: Sports
What’s up Strategy guy, hire me in the strategy department so if things go wrong you have someone to blame. It was all his fault, the analytics didn’t pick the right players. Hog wash, the model has only selected 24 players with 13 more scheduled in 2018. It’s a massive amount of draft capital, yet you haven’t drafted a full NFL roster yet. 37 selections between 2016-2018.
I did some work on the organization’s drafts from 2007-2012, 39 picks total over 5 years. These draft years are beneficial because it’s ancient history … previous ownership … big man changed things up in January 2016, he has to be committed to the model running a 5 year process.
And boss, it’s a shame when coaching costs the model a win. If 8 had played the entire game, at least taken over after the First Red Zone Turnover … geesh, run the ball 3 times for 6 yards and kick a field goal. Don’t take a sack and for goodness sake, don’t turn the ball over … anything, just don’t turn it over. The model could use a win.
The coach has to be on board with the names the analytical model is producing at that particular point in the draft, based on needs.
2007 is a good year to start. Second year regime, injury was a huge factor in 2006, 3rd pick overall, boom … Hall of Fame Left Tackle. Wow, a grand slam. Then, draft capital is expended for the quarterback of the future, Brady Quinn from Notre Dame … the “Franchise”. Paul, what’s Franchise Quarterback mean? A guy I have to pay 25% of my salary cap? What happens when you expend draft capital, move up to make a selection, and pick a Hall of Fame Quarterback? Now we’re talking. Then, in the 2007 draft, capital is expended again to move up in the second round to select CB Eric Wright. 59 games with 54 starts. Serviceable starts. We’d all like to draft a Pro Bowler, however, the model would be fine with league average … was this draft pick’s play was in the 50th percentile of the entire league? First and second round draft picks have higher expectations, the model would like to see them 50th percentile and higher. No picks in the 3rd or fourth round due to the Wright trade, so Brandon McDonald, 5th round, #140. played 48 games. A nice base hit, might have been able to stretch it to a double. Two DE in round 6 (200) and 7 (213) who never made the team, then a 7th round WR who stuck around on the practice squad a year, then played 16 games in 2008, mainly as special teams.
10 wins in 2007, no playoffs. Derek Anderson is given a new contract, maybe that’s the one thing about Cleveland Browns drafted QBs … they make great career backups.
2008, less draft capital from the Quinn/Wright trades. Second rounder traded for DT Corey Williams who played two seasons, all 32 games. He was later traded, in 2010, for a 5th round choice … had to throw in a 7th rounder to complete the draft picks for player exchange. 3rd rounders, plus Leigh Bodden, were traded for Shaun Rogers, played 3 seasons and went to a Pro Bowl. Selected a LB in the fourth round (first actual selection in 2008) and traded up for a TE in the 4th round, neither of whom worked out. Things were so good in Cleveland in 2008, we were trading Away QBs … a 6th round selection for Charlie Frye resulted in a homerun … like a solo shot .. Aytah Rubin, 99 games, maybe playing top 25 percentile NT/DT. a 7th round (231) LB who played 30 games over two seasons and was traded, along with 4th and 5th round choices for two players … Chris Gocong and Sheldon Brown .. Brown played 47 games over 3 seasons, Gocong played 32 games over two seasons and had his career ended by injury … wow, all these examples of players traded for draft capital to analyze … come up with a value for the player and his performance (again, the past … measurable) against the value of the draft capital expended and vice versa.
2009, 8 picks. We trade, twice, with teams wanting Their “Franchise QB”, gain draft capital and draft a three time Pro Bowl Center with our first selection at #21, then select two WR in the second round, #36, #50. Brian Robiskie (38 games) and Mohammed Massoquoi (54 games). DE David Velkone (14 games), Round 2, #52. Swing and a miss. Draft capital, not completely wasted …. but there’s two names, Brian Hartline and Mike Wallace …. we can analyze. Do the analytics, the formulas, the voodoo statistical magic, point to Hartline (104 games) and Wallace (132 games) as Better Selections than Robiskie and Massoquoi. Also, DE Henry Melton (80 games). Do the analytics support Melton as a better choice than Velkone? 4th round (104) LB Kaluka Maiava …. 50 games. Success. CB 90 , 6th round (177) … played 90 games, with Detroit, overcame injury. CB Coy Francies, 6th round (191) and RB James Davis, 6th round (195). Let’s say a “successful” 4th to 6th round draft pick plays >24 games? So Francies and Davis are misses. And, Julian Edelman was drafted in the 7th round (232).
2010, 8 picks … new regime. And a new regime, traditionally, in the NFL, means a different direction at Quarterback. Joe Haden at #7. The organization has a hall of fame LT, Pro Bowl Center, and now, a shutdown corner. TJ Ward, 2nd round (38), a pro bowl safety. Little at WR because we traded Braylon Edwards for a 3rd round choice plus two players, LB Jason Trusnik (26 games over two seasons) and WR Chansi Stuckey (27 games, 40 receptions, 0 TDs).
We turned this third round choice into Shaun Lauvao, G, 53 games. And, a QB was drafted in the 3rd round, #85 … McCoy is still kickin it around the league, both those choices were successes. RB Montario Hardesty, 2nd round (59) .. 23 games played. Let’s say a successful second round draft pick plays >40 games >50th positional percentile. 5th round, (160) Larry Asante, CB and 6th round (177) WR Carlton Mitchell, both misses. 6th round, (186), Clifton Geathers, DE, 40 games, although not with us. Was 2010 a successful Draft for the organization by current analytical measureables?
5-11 in 2010. It’s this run of not only losing seasons but double digit losing seasons.
2011, 8 picks. DT Phil Taylor, 1st round #21. 44 games. Jabaal Sheard, 2nd round (37), 61 games with 23 sacks. Greg Little, WR, 2nd round (59). This was the Julio Jones trade. Would it have been easier for Colt McCoy to stay healthy with Julio Jones running routes for the Cleveland Browns in 2011? TE Jordan Cameron, 4th round (102) … hit … Owen Marecic, RB, 4th round, #124 … miss … Buster Skrine, CB, 5th round (124) … hit … doubles, triples … thing about making good draft picks is you can’t always pay them beyond their rookie contract. 5th round (150) T Jason Pinkston … 25 games … 7th round (248) DB Eric Hagg … 22 games … Was this a good draft in 2011? Passing on Julio Jones, the clear cut numero uno reciever at the time, haunts us today.
5-11 in 2011.
2012 11 selections. We expend draft capital for a RB and a QB. Please tell me the analytics show how much of a reach Brandon Weeden was in the first round at #22 and hopefully this single example shows why first round draft capital is Never Expended for a Running Back. The dude from Penn State is Exceptional but we have greater needs and we feel strongly, based on empirical fucking evidence, we can find a Producer at the position with rounds 4 – 7 draft capital and we’re simply not making a RB a top 5 selection. Mitchell Schwartz, 2nd Round (37) and Travis Benjamin (4,100) are hits but one of the priorities should be cleaving the team of old regime personnel. There should only be one player on the team from this 5 year era … the last 5 years of the old ownership who we should be using as part of our model. Analyzing the draft from those last 5 years, it provides Value … LT Joe Thomas.
And, at this point in the season, we should be looking at every player to see if there’s an opportunity to turn personnel into draft capital and I strongly believe Minnesota would give us their first rounder next year for Joe Thomas’ service the rest of the season. There might be another team willing to give two picks for him. first rounder next year, second rounder in 2019. Like in baseball, teams are making their run and they need a pitcher. Football is no different and all the trading that’s been going on already in 2017 ….
Anyone else on the roster we can get third rounders for?