Finding the Next Domata Peko

October 20, 2020 | Posted in Sports | By

Photo by Travis Essinger.

Between 2005 and 2015, 89 Defensive Tackles were drafted in the third, fourth, and fifth rounds. How do we find the next Domata Peko? How do we find the next Jurrell Casey? How do we find the next Malik Jackson?

My cat says we could use analytics.

The anomaly of Peko, and others

Peko, drafted in the fourth round from Michigan State by the Cincinnati Bengals, appeared in 208 NFL games over 14 seasons. Kyle Williams, drafted in the fifth round from LSU, played 183 games over 13 seasons with the Buffalo Bills.

These are not household names because they are defensive tackles on teams with little to no postseason success over the past 15 seasons.

Geno Atkins and Jurrell Casey still making tackles up the middle ten years after they were drafted. 45 of the 89 defensive tackles drafted between 2005 and 2015, in rounds three through 5, played in more than 48 games, equating to three full NFL seasons.

Basic Math principles state, if my team drafts a defensive tackle in the third, fourth, or fifth round, my team has over a fifty percent chance on drafting a three year starter helping defend the run and help pressure the opposing quarterback.

We can’t get run on

When I look at the game of NFL football, I see an indefensible rectangle with a flawed and imperfect understanding of how points are generated. Just like baseball, football has basic principles.

We can’t get run on. Two good defensive tackles in a four down lineman set help us not get run on. I was watching Tennessee/Buffalo the other night and on 3rd and 4, Tennessee had one down lineman. Two others standing at the line of scrimmage over the guards. “Hybrid” defenses and formations are getting sexier based on personnel talent and versatility.

Two good defensive tackles and pressuring the opposing QB with solely our front four is a basic principle.

Aaron Donald pressuring the QB right up the middle are magical moments. Our model does not expect this from the defensive tackle position.

Though, I think Donald performed the job of blowing up the backfield, as is the job of a defensive tackle, better with Ndamukong Suh playing nose tackle.

Of course, I’m in the Belichick and Mike Vrabel camp pressuring the opposing QB and helping in Coverage and making sure we don’t get run all can be accomplished with three down lineman and two “OLB” in a two point stance but w/e.

NFL Prospect: What is your Job as a Defensive Tackle? If he doesn’t answer “to blow up the opponents backfield on every snap. Either by sacking the quarterback, interrupting the hand off to the running back, or tackling the running back for a six yard loss”, then Coaching needs to explain this after we draft him. Analytics don’t measure Swagger.

How do we do a better job expending a third, fourth, or fifth round draft pick, every season, for a defensive tackle?

Beyond tackles, sacks, bench press

When I look at how players are drafted, I see an imperfect and flawed evaluation system based on six metrics:

bench press, forty yard dash, vertical jump, Broad Jump, Shuttle, and three cone.

My guess is Jurrell Casey had a bad combine. Atkins had a bad combine. Kyle Williams had a bad combine. I’m not going to check because the defensive tackles cited in this article obviously fooled the scouts.

How do we not get fooled when we throw a dart in the third, fourth, or fifth round at a defensive tackle prospect? We are throwing a dart at a board with two halves: three year starter or nah, we missed. we can make our dart board more precise if we decide to use the pick on a defensive tackle in the fifth round. Look bruh, you can pass on this DT in the fourth round, but now the dart board is 50% three year starter, because we are taking a DT in rounds three through five (this half of the dart board cannot change), and the other half is “didn’t work out”.

However, the other half of the dart board where he didn’t work out is now easier to hit because of the angle you are throwing the dart by waiting until the fifth round to expend the pick. Do you feel the algorithms bend?

Beyond the film

We have to look beyond the film in talent evaluation. In the stack of defensive tackle prospects, show me everything you don’t like on film and I’ll respond with one question: Can coaching fix this?

He didn’t do a lot of bench presses? Do you think after one season in our NFL conditioning program he’ll be able to do more, with proper form so he does not tear a pectoral muscle? He refused to do three cone? He didn’t participate in shuttle or the 40? Oh noes, however will we measure his NFL game speed? Do you think after a year in our NFL conditioning program he will be faster? More agile?

See bruh, since 2016, we’ve drafted three defensive tackles. Ogunjobi was a hit. How does Jordan Elliott look? Brantley is on a NFL roster and we have to pay Ogunjobi so congratulations, a better way of picking NFL prospects is three for three and batting 1.000 on defensive tackle prospects.

Baseball principles don’t apply to football. Baseball analytics have no place in football. Giggle. No, baseball is a different game on a different shaped field, a diamond. Football is a game where you don’t use your feet and the ball isn’t a ball (at all) so out of the gate you’re dealing with complex principles with no logical explanations.

A basic principle. Let’s not get run on. We’re not getting run on because our front four annihilate opponent’s backfields. Make things crazy back there. Create pressure for the opposing QB.

Sacking the opposing QB> “Franchise QB”. What is a “franchise” QB? The guy who sells the most jerseys? Don’t @ me.

Picture the draft dart board divided again by two sections. One section is guy who sacks the QB in a way worth 20% of the salary cap. The other section is a quarterback playing in a manner worth 20% of the salary cap. Which section of the dart board are you more likely to hit with a first or second round draft pick?

We’re starting to digress into bust rate.

I’m fine to pay Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Mahomes, Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, 20% of the salary cap because their Super Bowl titles earned it.

Too many hall of famers playing or recently retired are creating recency “bias” on “franchise QBs” and what they should be paid. And yeah, ignoring the invariable variable, required, Mahomes is a Hall of Famer. He already has the Super Bowl title and could end up with every passing record in the books, except completion percentage. If we are going to win a title, in the next ten years, we are going to have to beat Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in January.

Defending the rectangle is difficult and this guy Mahomes, with the speed of Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, and Travis Kelce running routes over the middle creates too many challenges.

You know how we defend the rectangle? We pressure the opposing QB with our front four and for Mahomes, the pressure has to be constant involving blitz packages.

It’s unavoidable, there will be one on one coverage at the rectangle’s outer edges down field. Does the centerfielder have to help left field or right field?

I expect to see Ward Island on Sunday. Guy was a top five pick, just like Jalen Ramsey who, apparently, is erasing half the rectangle in single coverage. Do I need to describe the advantage created when one of your cornerbacks is erasing half the rectangle, usually against their best outer “edge” receiver? And dude, when the opponent’s best receiver lines up in the slot, Ward Island should follow.

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The Anomaly of Aaron Rodgers

August 22, 2018 | Posted in Sports | By

Recently, I had some Twitter action, which is rare, regarding NFL Hall of Fame Quarterbacks and when they took over their respective teams and became franchise quarterbacks long before being deemed Hall of Fame Quarterbacks.

One of the problems with the Hall of Fame Quarterbacks and analysis is the number of future Hall of Fame QBs currently playing, or retired recently; it muddles the conversation.  Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers (he eventually gets in based on longevity) and … Aaron Rodgers.

The group listed above has produced eight titles.  All but Rodgers started in their rookie year, taking over their teams as the franchise in their rookie seasons.  The NFL is a tough go for first-year QBs who start immediately.  DeShaun Watson destroyed the model’s expectations in six electrifying games in 2017.  He got injured.  Will he return to the same statistically impossible QB we saw in 2017 for 16 games?  Playing behind the worst offensive line in the NFL because of the Watson trade and not having a pick until the third round in the 2018 draft.

Green Bay has back to back Hall of Fame QBs

Brett Favre entered the hall in 2016 on the first ballot.  Aaron Rodgers will enter the Hall of Fame on the first ballot five years after he retires.  For 26 years, Green Bay has had a Hall of Fame QB.  Do you know how much EASIER the NFL is when a Hall of Famer is quarterbacking your team?  Green Bay has been competitive for the playoffs going on three decades.  Favre’s streak of consecutive games speaks monuments, and while Rodges has an injury history, he’s played 142 of 149 possible games since taking over for Green Bay, awkwardly, in 2008 when he entered his fourth season.  It may seem a statistical improbability, but it has happened … Joe Montana and Steve Young for the San Francisco 49ers during their heyday of five titles between 1981 and 1995.  Young was Montana’s back-up for four seasons yet saw chunks of action over those seasons before taking over in 1991 and forcing Montana to be traded to the Kansas City Chiefs in 1993.  Young won the title in 1995 and entered the Hall in 2005.

Correlation between playing behind a Hall of Famer?

Rodgers sat three seasons behind Favre.  Young sat three seasons behind Montana.  Two instances in twenty-six years of NFL free agency.  We could have another possible example as Jimmy Garroppolo sat three seasons behind Tom Brady and looked every bit the part of a franchise QB in San Francisco, although his statistical sample is small.  Complete, injury-free 16 game seasons.  One of the most exciting things to measure during the 2018 NFL season is Jimmy Garoppolo’s performance.  Hall of Famers mask holes on the teams, holes filled through free agency, trades, and the draft.  26 seasons of Hall of Fame play at the NFL’s most important position and Just two titles?  Who’s making personnel decisions in Green Bay, maybe they should take a look at something analytical every once in a while?  Peyton Manning, two rings?  Tom Brady has more titles than Favre, Rodgers, and Peyton Manning.  Luckily the better Manning QB, Eli, and his two rings tip the scales in favor of Tom Brady haters.  Garoppolo looks every bit the part to be a franchise QB, the occurrence before becoming a Hall of Famer.  Math is hard.

The Baker Mayfield dilemma

Did the Browns draft a Hall of Fame QB this past April when they selected Baker Mayfield #1 overall?  Did the Browns draft the next Drew Brees?  Let’s wait to find out; it makes no sense whatsoever.  Ready?  Mayfield is already cited as the future and the franchise but let’s wait to measure his performance in a regular season game.  Given=Tyrod Taylor is not a Hall of Fame QB.  Why even make the trade for Taylor when you know you’re selecting a QB #1 overall in the upcoming draft?  Don’t muddle the situation by signing a “bridge” QB, what the fuck does that even mean?  A “bridge” QB?  Draft your guy #1 overall, he’s the starter and let’s try to make things easier on him by protecting him, running the ball, and playing good defense.  Cleveland is playing for one win in 2018.  What do they have to lose by starting Mayfield Week 1 against Pittsburgh?  Expectations are tempered because Mayfield is a rookie QB.  Use the Houston Texans and DeShaun Watson as your example from last season.  It took 30 minutes of football before Watson took over for six amazing weeks before being injured.  If Hue Jackson wants to keep his job past Week 1, I expect a similar decision in Cleveland.  If the Browns go into halftime Week 1, at home, against Pittsburgh down 28-10 because Antonio Brown torched the rookie Ward, Le’Veon Bell was an absolute nightmare, and while Cleveland got pressure on Roethlisberger, it wasn’t enough or at the right times and Baker Mayfield doesn’t take over, well, can you fire your head coach at half-time?

 

 

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The Plight of the Cleveland Browns Part 3

October 12, 2017 | Posted in Sports | By

What’s up Strategy guy, hire me in the strategy department so if things go wrong you have someone to blame.  It was all his fault, the analytics didn’t pick the right players.  Hog wash, the model has only selected 24 players with 13 more scheduled in 2018.  It’s a massive amount of draft capital, yet you haven’t drafted a full NFL roster yet.  37 selections between 2016-2018.

I did some work on the organization’s drafts from 2007-2012, 39 picks total over 5 years.  These draft years are beneficial because it’s ancient history … previous ownership … big man changed things up in January 2016, he has to be committed to the model running a 5 year process.

And boss, it’s a shame when coaching costs the model a win.  If 8 had played the entire game, at least taken over after the First Red Zone Turnover … geesh, run the ball 3 times for 6 yards and kick a field goal.  Don’t take a sack and for goodness sake, don’t turn the ball over … anything, just don’t turn it over.  The model could use a win.

The coach has to be on board with the names the analytical model is producing at that particular point in the draft, based on needs.

2007 is a good year to start.  Second year regime, injury was a huge factor in 2006, 3rd pick overall, boom … Hall of Fame Left Tackle.  Wow, a grand slam.  Then, draft capital is expended for the quarterback of the future, Brady Quinn from Notre Dame … the “Franchise”.  Paul, what’s Franchise Quarterback mean?  A guy I have to pay 25% of my salary cap?  What happens when you expend draft capital, move up to make a selection, and pick a Hall of Fame Quarterback?  Now we’re talking.  Then, in the 2007 draft, capital is expended again to move up in the second round to select CB Eric Wright.  59 games with 54 starts.  Serviceable starts.  We’d all like to draft a Pro Bowler, however, the model would be fine with league average … was this draft pick’s play was in the 50th percentile of the entire league?  First and second round draft picks have higher expectations, the model would like to see them 50th percentile and higher.  No picks in the 3rd or fourth round due to the Wright trade, so Brandon McDonald, 5th round, #140.  played 48 games.  A nice base hit, might have been able to stretch it to a double.  Two DE in round 6 (200) and 7 (213) who never made the team, then a 7th round WR who stuck around on the practice squad a year, then played 16 games in 2008, mainly as special teams.

10 wins in 2007, no playoffs.  Derek Anderson is given a new contract, maybe that’s the one thing about Cleveland Browns drafted QBs … they make great career backups.

2008, less draft capital from the Quinn/Wright trades.  Second rounder traded for DT Corey Williams who played two seasons, all 32 games.  He was later traded, in 2010, for a 5th round choice … had to throw in a 7th rounder to complete the draft picks for player exchange.  3rd rounders, plus Leigh Bodden, were traded for Shaun Rogers, played 3 seasons and went to a Pro Bowl.    Selected a LB in the fourth round (first actual selection in 2008) and traded up for a TE in the 4th round, neither of whom worked out.  Things were so good in Cleveland in 2008, we were trading Away QBs … a 6th round selection for Charlie Frye resulted in a homerun … like a solo shot .. Aytah Rubin, 99 games, maybe playing top 25 percentile NT/DT.  a 7th round (231) LB who played 30 games over two seasons and was traded, along with 4th and 5th round choices for two players … Chris Gocong and Sheldon Brown .. Brown played 47 games over 3 seasons, Gocong played 32 games over two seasons and had his career ended by injury … wow, all these examples of players traded for draft capital to analyze … come up with a value for the player and his performance (again, the past … measurable) against the value of the draft capital expended and vice versa.

2009, 8 picks. We trade, twice, with teams wanting Their “Franchise QB”, gain draft capital and draft a three time Pro Bowl Center with our first selection at #21, then select two WR in the second round, #36, #50.  Brian Robiskie (38 games) and Mohammed Massoquoi (54 games).  DE David Velkone (14 games), Round 2, #52.  Swing and a miss.  Draft capital, not completely wasted …. but there’s two names, Brian Hartline and Mike Wallace …. we can analyze.  Do the analytics, the formulas, the voodoo statistical magic, point to Hartline (104 games) and Wallace (132 games) as Better Selections than Robiskie and Massoquoi.  Also, DE Henry Melton (80 games).  Do the analytics support Melton as a better choice than Velkone?  4th round (104) LB Kaluka Maiava …. 50 games.  Success.  CB 90 , 6th round (177) … played 90 games, with Detroit, overcame injury.  CB Coy Francies, 6th round (191) and RB James Davis, 6th round (195).  Let’s say a “successful” 4th to 6th round draft pick plays >24 games?  So Francies and Davis are misses.  And, Julian Edelman was drafted in the 7th round (232).

2010, 8 picks … new regime.  And a new regime, traditionally, in the NFL, means a different direction at Quarterback.  Joe Haden at #7.  The organization has a hall of fame LT, Pro Bowl Center, and now, a shutdown corner.  TJ Ward, 2nd round (38), a pro bowl safety.  Little at WR because we traded Braylon Edwards for a 3rd round choice plus two players, LB Jason Trusnik (26 games over two seasons) and WR Chansi Stuckey (27 games, 40 receptions, 0 TDs).

We turned this third round choice into Shaun Lauvao, G, 53 games.  And, a QB was drafted in the 3rd round, #85 … McCoy is still kickin it around the league, both those choices were successes.  RB Montario Hardesty, 2nd round (59) .. 23 games played.  Let’s say a successful second round draft pick plays >40 games >50th positional percentile.  5th round, (160) Larry Asante, CB and 6th round (177) WR Carlton Mitchell, both misses.  6th round, (186), Clifton Geathers, DE, 40 games, although not with us.  Was 2010 a successful Draft for the organization by current analytical measureables?

5-11 in 2010.  It’s this run of not only losing seasons but double digit losing seasons.

2011, 8 picks.  DT Phil Taylor, 1st round #21.  44 games.  Jabaal Sheard, 2nd round (37), 61 games with 23 sacks.  Greg Little, WR, 2nd round (59).  This was the Julio Jones trade.  Would it have been easier for Colt McCoy to stay healthy with Julio Jones running routes for the Cleveland Browns in 2011?  TE Jordan Cameron, 4th round (102) … hit …  Owen Marecic, RB, 4th round, #124 … miss … Buster Skrine, CB, 5th round (124) … hit … doubles, triples … thing about making good draft picks is you can’t always pay them beyond their rookie contract.  5th round (150) T Jason Pinkston … 25 games … 7th round (248) DB Eric Hagg … 22 games … Was this a good draft in 2011?  Passing on Julio Jones, the clear cut numero uno reciever at the time, haunts us today.

5-11 in 2011.

2012 11 selections. We expend draft capital for a RB and a QB.  Please tell me the analytics show how much of a reach Brandon Weeden was in the first round at #22 and hopefully this single example shows why first round draft capital is Never Expended for a Running Back.  The dude from Penn State is Exceptional but we have greater needs and we feel strongly, based on empirical fucking evidence, we can find a Producer at the position with rounds 4 – 7 draft capital and we’re simply not making a RB a top 5 selection.  Mitchell Schwartz, 2nd Round (37) and Travis Benjamin (4,100) are hits but one of the priorities should be cleaving the team of old regime personnel.  There should only be one player on the team from this 5 year era … the last 5 years of the old ownership who we should be using as part of our model.  Analyzing the draft from those last 5 years, it provides Value … LT Joe Thomas.

And, at this point in the season, we should be looking at every player to see if there’s an opportunity to turn personnel into draft capital and I strongly believe Minnesota would give us their first rounder next year for Joe Thomas’ service the rest of the season.  There might be another team willing to give two picks for him.  first rounder next year, second rounder in 2019.  Like in baseball, teams are making their run and they need a pitcher.  Football is no different and all the trading that’s been going on already in 2017 ….

Anyone else on the roster we can get third rounders for?

 

 

 

 

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The Plight of the Cleveland Browns

September 18, 2017 | Posted in Sports | By

Week 2 of the 2017 NFL season is getting ready to wrap up with Monday Night Football featuring the Detroit Lions playing in New Jersey against the New York Giants.

The Cleveland Browns?  0-2.  Injury.  Second year receiver Corey Coleman broke his hand and will miss several weeks.  Coleman broke the same hand in the same week in back to back season.  Powerful forces align against the Cleveland Browns … forces more powerful than you can possibly comprehend … what are the odds the same guy breaks the same hand in the same week two years in a row?  Astronomical … to the point mathematics Prove dark forces align against a cursed organization.

The Cleveland Browns franchise has won two Super Bowls so one cannot refer to the Current Cleveland Browns as a Franchise.  In 1996, the Franchise played it’s first game as the Baltimore Ravens and the history of the Cleveland Browns franchise diverts to Maryland.  The expansion Cleveland Browns have been cursed by poor draft picks.  Tim Couch, the consensus #1 pick when the new Cleveland Browns got things going in 1999 when the new Browns had their first draft.  There’s the infamous bust pick the next year, Courtney Brown … read this list of draft picks from 1999-2002.

Kevin Johnson, Rahim Abdullah, Dennis Northcutt, Travis Prentice, JaJuan Dawson, Gerard Warren … (the browns picked third in the 2001 NFL draft after holding the top selection in back to back seasons.  Hall of Fame Running Back Ladainian Tomlinson was selected #5.)  James Jackson, William Green (16th pick in 2002.  Soon to be Hall of Fame Safety Ed Reid was taken by the Cleveland Browns franchise eight picks later.  Dark forces).  These aren’t a list of names screaming success in the NFL.  Certainly some were “functional” … 2002 was the last time the organization of the Cleveland Browns made the playoffs.  The Cleveland Browns Franchise won another Super Bowl since the last time the Cleveland Browns made the playoffs.  The last time a team called the Cleveland Browns Won a playoff game?  1994.

The 2017 NFL season is quickly imploding for the Browns.  Injury.  #1 pick Myles Garrett tweaked his ankle 5 days before the first game and has yet to play.  Now Coleman.  Wide Receiver, before the Coleman injury, was already one the thinnest and least experienced group in the league … with a rookie QB … a scenario describing this actual reality couldn’t be scripted … Coleman breaking his hand in the second game of the season this year too.  Myles Garrett tweaking his ankle …

The defense has been a bright spot during the 2017 season and will only get better when Garrett is available to return.  0-16.  Disaster.  People might get fired which is the biggest mistake the Browns could make … the model requires Consistency.

Plus, there’s a whole lotta draft capital in the 2018 draft.  two first round picks plus three in the second round.  5 selecctions in the first 64!  We don’t have the $105 million in salary cap, however, the 2018 projection is $48 million under, creating opportunity to address team needs in free agency.  The Browns are the youngest team in the NFL, almost 1.5 years younger than league average.  Browns believers … we’re not just Browns fans … we’re Believers … should understand 2017 is a Building Year.  And don’t say the Browns are always rebuilding … the Browns are Recovering from a disastrous 2014 draft.  Justin Gilbert and Johnny Manziel.  The Manziel selection set the organization behind 5 years.  16 games of experience for the most youthful team in the league is goal #1 this year.  Stay healthy everyone, avoid Injury.  Injury literally makes any model constructed from data and analytics Invalid because of it’s uncertainty and Certainty … injuries in the National Football League Will Occur.

And Kizer?  Jury is still out.  And here’s the thing about another 1-15 season … I believe the Cleveland Browns will defeat the Indianapolis Colts (without Andrew Luck) behind strong running and good defense … perhaps the #1 selection in the 2018 NFL Draft … there are teams willing to trade Significant Draft Capital (We want 10 picks) for the rights to Sam Darnold and perhaps three other QBs.  After the QB trade craziness in 2017 for DeShaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes, I can only expect 2018 will be even more ridiculous when it comes to the exchange of Draft Capital for QB needy franchises.  And, a list of names for the beleaguered Browns to follow … Carson Wentz and Watson, QBs passed in Exchange for Future Draft Capital.

And bruh, the Model does not like this idea of “franchise QB”.  The model really likes a Hall of Fame QB … yet hates paying a single position 17-20 percent of the Salary Cap.  And there’s some data to this scenario to analyze.  Matthew Stafford.  Ryan Tannehill.  Joe Flacco.  I know he won a Superbowl but so did Trent Dilfer.  Throw some analytics on those two players … how similar are they when compared?  Andrew Luck.

The model really loves a guy like Tom Brady … not only because of his sexy manly looks … because the past two seasons, his cap hit has been 8.75% and increases to roughly 13% of the total available salary cap in 2018.

Analytics is changing the way professional football in america is being played.  Browns believers should understand their organization is light years ahead of other NFL franchises when it comes to these new analytics developed from #Data.  Future Draft Capital … a young, aggressive defense showing Potential with an entire season of experience.  2018 Could be exciting.

A jury out rookie Quarterback with a Rocket Arm and the ability to make plays with his legs throwing to a thin and now decimated WR corps.  Turnovers.  The game of football is virtually impossible to win when the ball is turned over five times.  We managed two turnovers so the net was minus 3 … I want to see a list of teams who won their respective game when the turnover differential was minus 3.  47.6 percent of attempted passes were completed.  Drops.  In key moments.  Browns believers should understand these were division games with a rookie QB … were the browns ever out of the game? … like didn’t have a chance at all? … in either of these two losses to open the 2017 NFL Season?

A great concern for the Browns is the offensive line … 10 sacks already this season and few openings for the ground game.  The offensive line was an area where significant 2017-2020 Salary Cap Capital was Invested.  Three new starters coupled with Cement on the left side … Joe Thomas, thank you for your service.  Guy hasn’t missed a Snap in 10 plus years.  The model … a winning NFL Franchise … loves Longevity … plus a rookie on the right side … the unit needs more time to gel.  Browns believers should understand these things.

It might be helpful if the owner of the Browns or someone high up took the time to explain these things.  Beg for even more patience.  Patience is a godly quality.

“This season is about experience.  We have a young group of guys who are working diligently to come together, gel … on both sides of the ball.  We’ve been encouraged by the play of our defense we believe is going to continue improving.  Injury has taken it’s toll, we’re hoping Myles continues to improve and can return to the practice field soon.  We thank you for being Browns fans … you’re by far the most patient group of fans in the world.  We ask you to continue to trust us … trust the things we’ve done the past two seasons, not just on the field, but off it … the acquisition of multiple first and second round draft picks … trust our plan to utilize all available analytics to deliver a winning product on Sunday’s.”

Week 3 of the 2017 NFL Season, for the Cleveland Browns, on the road.  Franchise A has a QB (Kizer) making his second career start.  Franchise B’s franchise QB costing 12% of the cap is injured so their QB (Brissett) is making his fourth career start and been around the professional game for one year longer … virtually equal.  We play clean on the road in Indianapolis … our defense continues to gel and grow … more running lanes open … a win week 3 is realistic.

A week 3 win with back to back home games against the New York Jets and Houston Texans (a game where our guy has more career NFL starts than their guy, and also the guy we Passed on) … bruh, 3-2 would turn some fans into believers because I would take the time to write about all these things and people could read them and develop Understanding, not just What the Cleveland Browns are doing but How they’re doing it.  With data and analytics the likes of which you’ve never seen.

Can’t look into the crystal ball too much … Weeks 4 and 5 of the 2017 NFL Season … it’s all about this week and the road game against a team not playing good football.  We have a good chance bruh and all things being equal, this may be the biggest game for the Browns since 1999.  There’s been plenty of big games for the Cleveland Browns franchise (The ravens winning multiple super bowls and all) … this week, on the road in Indianapolis … the organization really needs a win.

Because at some point … the lack of wins is going to start costing people their jobs.  The model somewhat hates reality while Adoring Consistency because the reality of the National Football League is losing equals firing.  Look at all the firing the Cleveland Browns did between 2010 and 2015.  It equated to Losing.  If they considered all the data regarding number of people fired versus winning percentage, everyone in upper management would feel like they have the most secure job in the world.  Simply not reality.

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The Not So AmazinglyLeet Cleveland Browns

April 5, 2017 | Posted in Sports | By

5 Apr 2017

The draft nears Mr. DePodesta.  and what’s the deal, you Tweet something and get two likes and one share?  Come on bro, you should be way more popular on that forum.  I’ve written you previously.  Here and Here

Twice actually.  Truth is, over the past few days, I pounded out 5,000 words about my girlfriend and need to start burying the post … among all the others that, you know, didn’t get read.

Free Agency is kind of over, although Romo going to the broadcasting booth is going to cause some movement at the position making the Cleveland Browns so Intriguing … what are the Browns going to do at QuarterBack?

Well, you made a big splash acquiring the Houston Guy.  Now, there may be a legitimate trade partner for him … 2nd round pick.  His salary has already been paid for this season.  “Hey, you want a Free QB for This season?”

But, I don’t think so.  He can get his chance in Cleveland and it was a pretty brilliant move because last I saw, you’re carrying $61 million to 2018 and we can’t talk about 2018 free agency yet because it’s too far in the future.  Money is there in 2018 and free agency doesn’t Hurt the organization next year.  Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen … those names Excite more than Trubisky, Watson, Kizer … teams are going to mortgage their farms like they did in 2012 (RGII) and 2016 (Goff) … to get one of these guys.  You, Mr. DePodesta, will have the draft Capital to make a move for one of these guys .. or, more likely Mr. DePodesta, based on recent results … you’ll be in position to get one of these three guys plus Others who moved their way up 2018 draft boards because of their performance (Trubisky).

8-8 in 2017?  How about 2-14.  You improved one game, have the #2 pick because San Francisco was That Bad, and it’s a Winston/Mariota thing like in 2014.  That’s a quick crystal ball into 2018.

8-8 in 2017?  If you get the first 5 draft picks Correct.  OJ Howard at #12?  It’s the New NFL and these Tight Ends shredding the middle of the field the way they do in the New NFL … and Howard has all the Tools … no one would blame you taking him #12, if he’s there …

2-14 in 2017?  Because you played “Franchise QB” in 2017 instead of holding off giving Osweiler the Chance to Lead, Kessler the chance to Back Up, and drafted a guy with the fourth round pick to Develop.  Do we live in a world where you’re going to take a guy with 13 collegiate starts over the best prospect ever in this DE from Texas A&M?  No way, but I’ve seen the mocks where they have you taking 13 college start guy with the Twelfth.  Instead of Elite Secondary Prospect or … Taking that final piece to the Massive Offensive Line … The Alabama Tackle … he’ll play RT … oooh, Mr. DePodesta … the vibes are sexy and remember, I only offer you an opportunity to read.

Secondary help with the next three choices … Sure, a QB at pick 95 …

10-6 in 2017?  Brock could play, we could run, Garrett really helped the unit get after the opposing QB, Britt made the big catches keeping the offensive on the field, Coleman developed into one of the best “take it to the house” receivers, and in the late rounds in 2017, rounds 5-7, You drafted backs and receivers ….

It’s important to get these first 5 picks correct Mr. DePodesta.  It can’t be a QB with one of the picks.  The team has too many Other Needs and there are Better Prospects Available … the Best Player Available Mentality.  Your division opponent in Pittsburgh has been doing this for years … and, they nailed their franchise QB in 2004.  Sure am glad the organization passed on that Ohio Guy and took Kellen Winslow.  Brilliant.

The history Mr. DePodesta … it doesn’t Bode Well for future prognostication.  The organization will get these first five draft picks Wrong and it’s 3-13.  Grab your guy in 2018 … with another massive amount of draft capital … get those picks wrong and maybe someday, fans of the Cleveland Browns will Celebrate Not Finishing in Last Place in the AFC North.

And hey, great job on that Guard from Cincinnati.  And the Center from Green Bay … Stay Away Injury Bug …

Try to save some money for Khalil Mack … the Raiders have to pay their QB $20MM, it’s difficult to pay another guy $20MM because he’ll Command that Price.  New Orleans … Indianapolis …. Miami … Detroit … they’re all paying “Franchise” QBs over $20MM.  Is this going to equate to success in 2017?  It didn’t in 2016.  Sure, a couple on that list made the playoffs … one game and out … and something like that for the Cleveland Browns in the next 3 years … a playoff appearance … it’s just too lofty a goal.

get these first five draft picks in a few weeks Correct … and maybe, for the first time since 1993, when Bill Belichick was head coach and Nick Saban was Defensive Coordinator … the Cleveland Browns will have a smidgen (crossword puzzle word) of Hope.

 

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