Finding the next Bobby Wagner
November 2, 2020 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous
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Bobby Wagner was drafted 47th overall in 2012 from Utah State. I sure am glad the Cleveland Browns selected Trent Richardson third overall in the 2012 NFL Draft instead of Bobby Wagner.
Here are some names selected in 2012 before Bobby Wagner. Luke Kuechly, Nick Perry, Melvin Ingram, Dont’a Hightower, Courtney Upshaw, and Michael Kendricks were all linebackers selected before Bobby Wagner. Keuchly, selected ninth overall, set the value level for Bobby Wagner in the draft. My cat contends there is no debate Bobby Wagner is worth a Top 10 pick in a NFL Draft.
How do we find the next Bobby Wagner? My cat says we can use sabermetrics and analytics.
2012 Draft – The Browns
The Browns made three selections in 2012 in the first 37 picks. Draft capital from the Julio Jones trade in 2011.
Trent Richardson, Brandon Weeden, and Mitchell Schwartz were the three players selected. Mitchell Schwartz, in retrospect, was mistakenly allowed to leave to the Kansas City Chiefs as a free agent in 2016 and won a title. Mistakes were made. We did not have to go 0-16. We learn from our mistakes of how we overvalued contracts and undervalued all pro right tackle play.
My cat contends other NFL teams are copying the model of tearing down contracts, rebuilding, and dealing with a poor product on the field. My cat contends Mike Maycock is a copycat. The Miami Dolphins are copy cats. The way NFL teams are acquiring draft capital, mostly by trading players to the Houston Texans or Seattle Seahawks, are emulating a model the Cleveland Browns started in 2016.
People have to understand it’s an ebb and flow process. The product on the field for us as the Cleveland Browns in 2020 is Encouraging. The product on the field in Miami is Encouraging. The product on the field in Las Vegas is Encouraging, though my cat says Maycock could have made better draft picks with the Khalil Mack draft capital.
The situation in Miami is particularly encouraging because the model, the model bringing sabermetrics and analytics to the NFL, does not have to go 0-16. Emulation is the sincerest form of flattery.
Tampa @ NY Giants (+13)
Week 8 of the 2020 NFL COVID Season concludes with Monday Night Football with Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers traveling to frigid New Jersey to face the hapless NY Giants.
Tampa should win 45-10. However, observing the large print heading of a home underdog getting thirteen points and two other double digit spreads losing this week make the author of this post nervous because I authorized the dispersal of 5.4 units on measuring our predictive model for the outcome of a NFL game.
After listening to all the opinions regarding a final of Tampa 27, NY Giants 17, or some other score within thirteen points, and a combined score less than 46.5, the author of this post made the decision, as he has for many years, on Tampa -13, O 46.5. The 5.4 “wager” will return 6.5 units if correct on both predictions. The “wager” will lose 1.2 units if only one is correct and obviously the wager will lose 5.4 units if incorrect. Rolling 5% on your prediction is what we call “gutsy”.
Predicting NFL Game Scores
We don’t necessarily want to publish in that space, however, there’s a lot of money to be made in predicting NFL game results and being correct. The public is thirsty for any and all content relating to the outcomes of NFL games. Fantasy football, sports betting, survivor pools … all these “events” drive the thirst for content.
We’ll publish some content. We were never under contract regarding non-disclosure. We simply met in The Town back in the day and I knew a lot more about football than you. We had some mutual friends from chess club. and look, I know the first rule of chess club is you do not talk about chess club and publishing about chess club probably breaks the rule. However, do we not have an obligation to teach others chess?
Atlanta v Carolina Prediction
October 29, 2020 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous
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Photo from Wikipedia
We like to make sports predictions. Week 8 of the 2020 NFL season kicks off in a few hours so we figure we would publish something about the game.
We like Atlanta +2.5, Atlanta +120. A lot of money to be made in NFL predictions. We don’t care about such things, our site isn’t even monetized because we don’t publish for money, we publish to enlighten.
And, perhaps, we place two small wagers, very small by sports gambling standards, to be correct, not for the money. We feel over the long term it’s a 50/50 proposition where one loses one dollar per ten dollars wagered … if, one is decent at making the predictions and bold enough to put their money where their mouth is.
Julio Jones a full go
I’m glad the Cleveland Browns traded down and avoided selecting Julio Jones in 2011. Did Atlanta know he was going to be a hall of famer? Doubtful.
In 2008, Atlanta selected Matt Ryan with the third overall pick. After two encouraging seasons by Ryan, Atlanta decided to trade up for the best receiver available in 2011 … Quintorris Lopez “Julio” Jones.
Ten seasons and 820 catches later, Julio Jones is still burning teams at age 32 though battling through nagging injuries. Against Carolina, Julio Jones is not listed on the injury report and coming off an eight catch, 97 yard performance against the Detroit Lions in Week 7.
Carolina Over Valued
Perhaps the “sharps” agree. Line movement of Atlanta +2.5 to Atl +1.5 indicate money coming in on Atlanta. Their losses on defensive line cannot be overcome as both Brian Burns and Yetur Gross-Matos will miss the rest of the season. Carolina covered the spread last week against New Orleans, losing by just 3 and a close game in New Orleans, where the Saint’s dominance is over valued in the world of sports wagering, generate further opportunity on the underdog in this matchup.
Drafting Analytics
How do we draft the next Julio Jones? Some articles about drafting defensive tackles give insight into analyzing the process leading to the selection of Julio Jones hence the term analytics.
6’3, 226 pounds with his speed is an anomaly. DK Metcalf falling to the second round, pick 64, when he is more anomalous at 6’4′, 229, with more speed than Julio Jones, shows NFL teams are too inside the box about speed and undervaluing size on the offensive edge of your formation.
Belichick selected his 6’4″ edge presence in N’Keal Harry in 2019, however, Harry has not been able to stay healthy, playing just 11 games in his career. Harry’s combine speed was measured at 4.59, Julio Jones 4.39, DK Metcalf 4.33.
There’s six foot receivers galore in the NFL. Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, and Parris Campbell were all selected before DK Metcalf. The first receiver selected, Marquise Brown, and Andy Isabella, both selected before DK Metcalf, are 5’9″.
Teams value the edge speed more than they value the edge Size. I’m trying to create as many mismatches as possible inside the rectangle where I’m trying to score points to win a game. DK Metcalf is a mismatch for any NFL corner. Teams having to game plan for Metcalf’s size and his speed give Seattle an advantage.
Bro, does anyone look at any of the teams we have to play to actually win the title in the Superbowl? Something tells me, if we want to win a title in the next five years, not only do we have to beat Patrick Mahomes, we have to beat Russell Wilson. He’s a hall of famer. Mahomes too. Teams want to try and duplicate the speed on the edge like KC demonstrates with Tyreek Hill.
Defensive Tackle Bust Rates
October 28, 2020 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous
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We looked at defensive tackles selected between 2005 and 2015 adding a second data set of defensive tackles drafted between 2015 and 2018. The defensive tackles Analyzed, if you will, were all selected in rounds three through five. We became curious about defensive tackles selected in the first or second round 2005 through 2018. These types of articles are impossible without profootballreference.com and stathead.com.
Hardly “Busts”
Between 2005 and 2015, 74 defensive tackles were drafted in the first or second round. 54 appeared in more than 48 games, covering three NFL seasons. 43 appeared in more than 64 games, covering four NFL seasons. 32 appeared in more than 80 NFL games, covering five NFL seasons.
Three year defensive tackle – 72.9% … Four year defensive tackle – 58% … five year defensive tackle – 43.2%. Basic Math drawing an extremely biased conclusion when drafting a defensive tackle in the first or second round, 72.9% of the time, the draftee plays in 48 NFL games, or, three NFL seasons. This is not analytics.
The conclusion is biased for a number of statistical reasons we don’t divulge into because we are not mathematicians. Recency bias, for example, are Da’Ron Payne, Vita Vea (bitten by injury in 2020), and PJ Hall solid defensive tackles?
These defensive tackles were selected in 2018 with an available pool of games less than our parameters of 48 NFL games covering three seasons. Phil Taylor was drafted in this data set. Was he a successful defensive tackle? How can we measure that success? Did we get run on when Taylor was playing defensive tackle?
Here was the most interesting part of the data set from our point of view.
Seven of the 74 defensive tackles selected played at least two NFL seasons. I’m sure it’s no big secret defensive tackles are a safe draft pick … but this safe? A 90% chance of a two year defensive tackle?
However, perhaps we Expect more from a first or second round defensive tackle. We expect more from Haloti Ngata, Ndamukong Suh, and Linval Joseph. How do we measure expectation value from the expenditure of a first round pick on a defensive tackle? I want to draft all pros who play fifteen seasons. May I see some data besides bench press and three cone?
Finding DTs in 2021 Draft
Since we’ve drafted just three defensive tackles since 2016, my cat says defensive tackle is the second priority behind finding the next Bobby Wagner in the first round. Bobby Wagner is the Roman God of the Middle and Underneath.
How do we find the next Bobby Wagner in the first round? Analytics. We look at the entire process of selecting linebackers. We already feel the model developed to date as a result of examining the entire process of drafting a linebacker has demonstrated some success 2016-2020.
2021 Draft Needs – LB, DT, CB, DT, WR, TE, CB
Draft Needs should be limited to seven at this point because there are seven rounds in the NFL Draft. Identifying defensive tackles in rounds three through five should be priority. We need to do better than Terrance Mitchell next season. Redwine has to get the reps playing single high safety. The injury bug biting one edge of the offensive Triangle (don’t @ me) allows the team to function more as the team was intended to function.
The injury to #13 allows more reps for Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones allowing evaluation and two receiver sets make more sense. Replacing Beckham on the edge with Size will make our triangle better. Higgins in his spot is what we want from a salary cap standpoint and now we have a chance to truly evaluate Higgins in the role we’d like him to play … a #1 receiver with Size.
The invariable variable
Injury in the NFL is an invariable variable. The event will occur. Teams hope to avoid the invariable variable, fans hope for as few injuries as possible, and players hope for the best and work hard for their bodies to be in the kind of shape mitigating injury. NFL players are the best athletes on planet earth don’t @ me.
The devastating injury to our offense is terrible and we wish him speedy recovery and look forward to the day he is part of the offensive playbook.
We must always remain optimistic in spite of injury although the situation in Dallas is concerning. There have been so many injuries and so many backups installed there’s concerns of even more injuries.
The data says NFL players need three to four “warmup” games before engaging in NFL game conditions
Finding the next Grady Jarrett
October 27, 2020 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous
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Photo by Travis Essinger.
I wrote some things about drafting defensive tackles in rounds three through five between 2005 and 2015.
What should we expect, based on the information provided in the link above about drafting defensive tackles, between 2015 and 2018?
Between 2005 and 2015, in rounds three through five, 42 defensive tackles were selected
Teams are hardly “missing”
29 of 42 defensive tackles drafted between 2015 and 2018 in rounds three through five appeared in 32 of 64 possible games. Does this mean if I draft a defensive tackle in rounds three through five, I have a 69% of someone who plays in 32 games? No, for a number of reasons. The data set is too small. I would like to incorporate 2019 and 2020, however, we’re digging too deep trying to explain basic statistical principles.
69% chance of a two year rotational defensive tackle. 50% of a three year rotational defensive tackle utilizing a larger data set of eleven drafts. Hardly a “miss” when drafting NFL Prospects.
Statistics are not “analytics”
These articles used basic math, division to produce percentages, and incorporated some basic statistical principles. I’m not going to write an article on Standard Deviation because I got a “C” in a university five hour “Statistics” class.
The analytics start when we look at the decisions leading to the drafting of Grady Jarrett, Teyler Davidson, Matthew Ionnidis, and Larry Ogunjobi.
What metrics were used to draft these players beyond their “combine” results?
Determining Value
How do we place value on Grady Jarrett’s 84 NFL games beyond Tackles and Sacks? How do we correlate a newly determined value on Jarrett’s performance versus the expenditure of a fifth round draft pick to acquire Grady Jarrett? How do we correlate a newly determined value on Jarrett’s performance to a new contract? Is Larry Ogunjobi worth eight million dollars a year?
Is Larry Ogunjobi worth eight million dollars a year when I have a fifty percent chance of drafting his replacement in rounds three through five? How do we value Ogunjobi’s new contract which, in my opinion, we have to give and be looking at drafting a defensive tackle in rounds three through five in 2021 to put a rookie contract in the rotation.
Two defensive tackles could be drafted in 2021 depending on talent’s evaluation on the first and second round prospects.
My cat gets curious about defensive tackles selected in rounds one and two. How safe are these draft picks? However, I think everyone can agree, our top priority is the most talented do it all linebacker available when we pick in the first round in 2021.
These types of articles are not possible without profootballreference.com and stathead.com.
Finding the Next Domata Peko
October 20, 2020 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous
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Photo by Travis Essinger.
Between 2005 and 2015, 89 Defensive Tackles were drafted in the third, fourth, and fifth rounds. How do we find the next Domata Peko? How do we find the next Jurrell Casey? How do we find the next Malik Jackson?
My cat says we could use analytics.
The anomaly of Peko, and others
Peko, drafted in the fourth round from Michigan State by the Cincinnati Bengals, appeared in 208 NFL games over 14 seasons. Kyle Williams, drafted in the fifth round from LSU, played 183 games over 13 seasons with the Buffalo Bills.
These are not household names because they are defensive tackles on teams with little to no postseason success over the past 15 seasons.
Geno Atkins and Jurrell Casey still making tackles up the middle ten years after they were drafted. 45 of the 89 defensive tackles drafted between 2005 and 2015, in rounds three through 5, played in more than 48 games, equating to three full NFL seasons.
Basic Math principles state, if my team drafts a defensive tackle in the third, fourth, or fifth round, my team has over a fifty percent chance on drafting a three year starter helping defend the run and help pressure the opposing quarterback.
We can’t get run on
When I look at the game of NFL football, I see an indefensible rectangle with a flawed and imperfect understanding of how points are generated. Just like baseball, football has basic principles.
We can’t get run on. Two good defensive tackles in a four down lineman set help us not get run on. I was watching Tennessee/Buffalo the other night and on 3rd and 4, Tennessee had one down lineman. Two others standing at the line of scrimmage over the guards. “Hybrid” defenses and formations are getting sexier based on personnel talent and versatility.
Two good defensive tackles and pressuring the opposing QB with solely our front four is a basic principle.
Aaron Donald pressuring the QB right up the middle are magical moments. Our model does not expect this from the defensive tackle position.
Though, I think Donald performed the job of blowing up the backfield, as is the job of a defensive tackle, better with Ndamukong Suh playing nose tackle.
Of course, I’m in the Belichick and Mike Vrabel camp pressuring the opposing QB and helping in Coverage and making sure we don’t get run all can be accomplished with three down lineman and two “OLB” in a two point stance but w/e.
NFL Prospect: What is your Job as a Defensive Tackle? If he doesn’t answer “to blow up the opponents backfield on every snap. Either by sacking the quarterback, interrupting the hand off to the running back, or tackling the running back for a six yard loss”, then Coaching needs to explain this after we draft him. Analytics don’t measure Swagger.
How do we do a better job expending a third, fourth, or fifth round draft pick, every season, for a defensive tackle?
Beyond tackles, sacks, bench press
When I look at how players are drafted, I see an imperfect and flawed evaluation system based on six metrics:
bench press, forty yard dash, vertical jump, Broad Jump, Shuttle, and three cone.
My guess is Jurrell Casey had a bad combine. Atkins had a bad combine. Kyle Williams had a bad combine. I’m not going to check because the defensive tackles cited in this article obviously fooled the scouts.
How do we not get fooled when we throw a dart in the third, fourth, or fifth round at a defensive tackle prospect? We are throwing a dart at a board with two halves: three year starter or nah, we missed. we can make our dart board more precise if we decide to use the pick on a defensive tackle in the fifth round. Look bruh, you can pass on this DT in the fourth round, but now the dart board is 50% three year starter, because we are taking a DT in rounds three through five (this half of the dart board cannot change), and the other half is “didn’t work out”.
However, the other half of the dart board where he didn’t work out is now easier to hit because of the angle you are throwing the dart by waiting until the fifth round to expend the pick. Do you feel the algorithms bend?
Beyond the film
We have to look beyond the film in talent evaluation. In the stack of defensive tackle prospects, show me everything you don’t like on film and I’ll respond with one question: Can coaching fix this?
He didn’t do a lot of bench presses? Do you think after one season in our NFL conditioning program he’ll be able to do more, with proper form so he does not tear a pectoral muscle? He refused to do three cone? He didn’t participate in shuttle or the 40? Oh noes, however will we measure his NFL game speed? Do you think after a year in our NFL conditioning program he will be faster? More agile?
See bruh, since 2016, we’ve drafted three defensive tackles. Ogunjobi was a hit. How does Jordan Elliott look? Brantley is on a NFL roster and we have to pay Ogunjobi so congratulations, a better way of picking NFL prospects is three for three and batting 1.000 on defensive tackle prospects.
Baseball principles don’t apply to football. Baseball analytics have no place in football. Giggle. No, baseball is a different game on a different shaped field, a diamond. Football is a game where you don’t use your feet and the ball isn’t a ball (at all) so out of the gate you’re dealing with complex principles with no logical explanations.
A basic principle. Let’s not get run on. We’re not getting run on because our front four annihilate opponent’s backfields. Make things crazy back there. Create pressure for the opposing QB.
Sacking the opposing QB> “Franchise QB”. What is a “franchise” QB? The guy who sells the most jerseys? Don’t @ me.
Picture the draft dart board divided again by two sections. One section is guy who sacks the QB in a way worth 20% of the salary cap. The other section is a quarterback playing in a manner worth 20% of the salary cap. Which section of the dart board are you more likely to hit with a first or second round draft pick?
We’re starting to digress into bust rate.
I’m fine to pay Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Mahomes, Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, 20% of the salary cap because their Super Bowl titles earned it.
Too many hall of famers playing or recently retired are creating recency “bias” on “franchise QBs” and what they should be paid. And yeah, ignoring the invariable variable, required, Mahomes is a Hall of Famer. He already has the Super Bowl title and could end up with every passing record in the books, except completion percentage. If we are going to win a title, in the next ten years, we are going to have to beat Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in January.
Defending the rectangle is difficult and this guy Mahomes, with the speed of Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, and Travis Kelce running routes over the middle creates too many challenges.
You know how we defend the rectangle? We pressure the opposing QB with our front four and for Mahomes, the pressure has to be constant involving blitz packages.
It’s unavoidable, there will be one on one coverage at the rectangle’s outer edges down field. Does the centerfielder have to help left field or right field?
I expect to see Ward Island on Sunday. Guy was a top five pick, just like Jalen Ramsey who, apparently, is erasing half the rectangle in single coverage. Do I need to describe the advantage created when one of your cornerbacks is erasing half the rectangle, usually against their best outer “edge” receiver? And dude, when the opponent’s best receiver lines up in the slot, Ward Island should follow.
2020 NFL Week 4 – COVID Edition
October 3, 2020 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous
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Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season has been adversely impacted by COVID with the cancellation of the Steelers and Tennessee Titans. Additionally, the NFL has tentatively moved New England and Kansas City to Tuesday, as quarterback Cam Newton tested positive for COVID. We should consider ourselves lucky any of this is even happening because America needs the distraction of the NFL and fantasy football.
The thirst for content, any content, on any kind of projections for NFL games is insatiable. The sports betting explosion drives this thirst independent of fantasy football.
Cleveland at Dallas (-3.5)
As of Saturday night, there was apparently a steam move on Cleveland compressing the line from Dallas -4.5 to the current line. Tedious searches revealed little news to drive this line compression.
There’s data to support fading a steam move. 20 years of data suggest fading the Cleveland Browns. Sure, they won by ten points against a Washington Football Team decimated on the defensive line by injury and few options on offense. Washington was competitive in their 34-24 defeat this past week until the offense imploded on itself and Cleveland was able to put the game away running the ball, again.
Dallas, meanwhile, should be 0-3 and have failed to cover the spread in 2020. The public is heavy on Dallas with 68% of the bets representing 88% of the money. And the line is compressing, usually an indicator of heavy action on the Browns.
Does anyone foresee Cleveland matching Dallas in a shootout? Ezekiel Elliott should have his way with Cleveland, Dak Prescott will not make Dwayne Haskins mistakes, and Baker Mayfield can be counted on for an untimely turnover or two.
Dallas 38, Cleveland 27. Over 56.
Jacksonville at Cincinnati (-3)
The betting public has a short memory. They simply remember Jacksonville getting destroyed by Miami 31-13 nine days ago. Jacksonville will be returning wide receiver DJ Chark which should help quarterback Gardner Minshew.
Cincinnati is weak at linebacker with tight end Tyler Eifert being a good second option for Minshew. Cleveland and Philadelphia rushed for a combined 395 yards against Cincinnati Week 2 and Week 3. The public has a short memory on Jaguars’ running back James Robinson because he played ten days ago, rushing for 46 yards on 11 carries with two touchdowns. Game flow dictated Robinson’s quiet day.
James Robinson is unstoppable and Minshew Mania rolls, despite Burrow better with every rep.
Jacksonville 27, Cincinnati 24. Over 49
Seattle at Miami (+6.5)
Here’s a case where the betting public has a long memory. They remember Miami winning convincingly nine days ago. The betting public remembers Seattle giving up monstrous yardage and points, especially through the air. And, Seattle will be missing key pieces in a secondary getting absolutely bombed the first three weeks, notably safety Jamal Adams, acquired for a ludicrous two first round draft picks.
Russell Wilson is the MVP of the first three games. Cornerback Byron Jones is listed as doubtful and while Xavien Howard is an outstanding corner, DK Metcalf and Wilson and Company shredded Stephone Gilmore and Bill Belichick’s secondary.
The “West Coast Team” playing “East Coast 1pm” game and some kind of biorhythmic disadvantage? You bet your money on hocus pocus.
Russell Wilson rolls with the danger of a backdoor cover.
Seattle 34, Miami 24. Over 54.5.
Matthew the Doubter
April 9, 2020 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous
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Published on behalf of a friend
Hello Brother, some time ago you were told history shall know you as Matthew the Doubter. We, being a collective of intellectuals led by me, Brother Nehemiah, contend this blog post fulfills a prophecy because given an appropriate amount of time with the proper tags when someone uses google with the search term Matthew the Doubter, this blog post will appear before thine eyes to read if they so choose. For art Brother Nehemiah a prophet?
The book, the Gospels, the cross, the son, Him … these are all important aspects of our movement, however, humans on earth have been searching for answers through Him for the past two thousand years and here we are today. The truth of one God was never meant to be so decisive. The splintering of Christianity into a thousand thousand thousand sects over disagreements about the New Testament is a tragic outcome in trying to help humans on earth worship one God. The time for searching for answers through Him must be put aside in an attempt to find answers through Her.
Mother. The Church has a problem because they propagated the unnatural. How is there a Son with no Mother? Mother, the Mother of planets suitable for human life, was Excluded from the history books. What, you don’t think God took a wife? You don’t think God took many wives, metaphorically speaking, because planets with the right “atmosphere” for human life to procreate are Scarce in the universe He created with the snap of his fingers.
God snapped his fingers and created the entire Universe. However, the Creator was then bound by the laws He created with the snap of his fingers. Sure, God can intervene because he’s the creator, and he has, with the story told in the second book of Moses. However, God’s mantra is He would rather you, as humans on earth, figure things out for yourselves.
Her time. Mother Earth. Her creatures. Her trees. Her mountains, rivers, and lakes. Her oceans. Her deserts. Her forests. All with a star at the right proximity to the planet for human life to flourish. Perhaps humans on earth forgot to worship their star.
During the day, on your island, when you’re standing in the starlight warming your body, mind, spirit, and soul, worship Her. Worship our star because humans basking in warm starlight is a rarity in our universe.
A blog post, for legitimacy, should be 500 words. You’re to preach a new gospel. Her gospel. Your expertise on the original gospels and the son, perhaps the book in it’s entirety, makes you the lynch pin of the disciples. We worship God, appreciate the teachings of the son but Salvation is an inside job. One can find Salvation through God and his wife, the Mother of Planets suitable or human life. 473 words.
The pandemic broke mother’s fever. And relax, population control through pestilence has been done time and time again throughout the universe for it is Her time. Our mother wages war against an invasive species worshipping false idols.
Draft Kings Week 4 Sunday Classic
September 26, 2019 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous
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We have enjoyed three cash finishes in our first year of Draft Kings and are hoping Week 4 Sunday Classic gives us our first monumental cash finish of the season.
Mahomes is a God
Mahomes is on pace for 6,300 yards and 53 touchdown passes through three games on the season. One can only hope to contain him and what’s scary is all this madness with the yardage and touchdowns being accomplished with Tyreek Hill on the sidelines with a weird collarbone injury.
Week 4 finds Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs traveling to Detroit facing a surprisingly undefeated Lions squad. Detroit ranks just 22nd against the pass through games surrendering 269.3 yards per game. We look for Mahomes to be Mahomes and score 30+ fantasy points
Value at Running Back
The Detroit/Kansas City game has the highest over/under of any weekend game, standing currently at 55. Kansas City ranks 26th against the run surrendering a paltry 137.7 yards per contest on the ground. We look for Kerryon Johnson to be utilized heavily in this game.
Marlon Mack faces an Oakland defense ranked 19th against the run giving up 119 yards on the ground per game. Mack is ranked highly by most prognosticators and the game sits at 45 over/under.
More Value at Wide Receiver
We’re going with Kenny Golladay in the highest over/under game of the week hoping he bounces back after flopping in Week 3 with high expectations.
We’re going to be watching Julian Edelman’s status for Sunday’s game. Edelman has been limited all week, amazing his teammates, and he’s just the kind of guy to tough through this injury because he’s a man’s man.
Rookie Terry McLaurin is becoming Case Keenum’s favorite target playing for a team throwing the ball due to second half deficits. The New York Football Giants rank 31st agains the pass surrendering a ridiculous 460.3 yards per contest. We and the prognosticators like McLaurin to continue his hot start.
Top Dollar at Tight End
We’re going with Travis Kelce, paying top dollar for Mahomes favorite target. We’re adding Kansas City’s big play threat, rookie Mecole Hardman, stepping into the Tyreek Hill role and look for him to continue his big play capability.
Los Angeles Rams Defense
Tampa’s offensive line is porous, Tampa is traveling out west, Aaron Donald got his first sack last week, and Famous Jameis is well overdue for a pick six.
Draft Kings Week 4 Thursday Night Showdown
September 25, 2019 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous
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After a cash finish in Monday Night’s Week 3 Showdown, we are excited to enter this team in Thursday Night’s game where the Eagles of Philadelphia travel to the Packers of Green Bay where perhaps the Packers will prevail by kicking an oblong ball made of pigskin through a big H.
Who else but Rodgers as Captain?
Aaron Rodgers is a Hall of Famer playing at home on a short week against an Eagles team struggling against the pass. After three weeks, the Eagles rank 29th against pass giving up 293.7 yards per game and allowing 2.33 touchdown passes per game.
Nelson Agholor will o/u 2.5 drops
Green Bay is playing stellar defense ranking fifth against the pass surrendering just 192.7 yards per contest and has allowed just one passing touchdown on the season. Our expectation is these numbers are skewed on the low end and Wentz could have a decent night.
DeSean Jackson remains on the sidelines with an abdominal injury and while Alshon Jeffrey “could play” Thursday Night, we like Agholor to once again dominate target shares as he produced eight catches on 12 targets in the Eagles’ Week 3 loss to the Lions.
GB pass catchers galore
We’re paying top price for DaVante Adams and adding Marquez Valdes-Scantling as he dominated the target share in Week 3 against the Lions totaling six grabs on ten targets for 99 yards and a touchdown.
Detroit’s Big Play Darius Slay covered Adams well in week 3 as Adams caught all four of his targets for 56 yards.
Will Packers D continue hot start?
Team defenses are always a decent play in Showdown as the prices allow for more high priced stars like Adams and making Rodgers captain. Green Bay sacked Joe Flacco six times in Week 3 while Wentz was sacked three times by a surprisingly undefeated Lions team. We like the sacks to fall somewhere in the middle in Thursday’s contest and maybe Green Bay scores on defense or special teams.
Mack Hollins a decent play?
With DeSean Jackson out with injury, Hollins saw seven targets in Week 3, producing four catches for 62 yards. At $2,400 for Thursday’s contest, Hollins offers decent value.
Draft Kings Week 3 Thursday Night Showdown
September 18, 2019 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous
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After another cash finish in Monday Night’s Showdown featuring the Cleveland Browns throttling of the hapless New York Jets, we are excited to enter this line-up for Thursday Night’s game featuring the Tennessee Titans traveling to Jacksonville to play the 0-2 Jaguars.
Titans defense as our Captain
After two weeks, Tennessee ranks 11th overall in total defense by yards allowed while giving up 16 points per game. The Titans are particularly stout against the pass, ranking second overall while allowing 182.5 passing yards a game. Tennessee is more susceptible to the run, ranking 26th overall, giving up nearly 135 yards per game.
Running backs reign supreme
Thursday night games are traditionally sloppy, especially early in the season and we expect both Derrick Henry and Leonard Fournette to be featured in heavy volume. Jacksonville ranks 17th agains the run, surrendering nearly 120 yards per game.
Mariota a decent night?
We’re going with Marcus Mariota as our only quarterback as Jacksonville ranks 19th against the pass surrounding 257.5 yards per contest without an interception on the season. Mariota was effective Week 2 against Indianapolis, throwing for 154 yards with one touchdown while completing 19/28 passes and a rating of 93.5.
Delanie Walker an early stud
Walker has been particularly effective in the first two weeks and is Mariota’s favorite option in the passing game. Walker has nine catches for 94 yards and a two touchdowns on the season.
Cairo Santos the final slot
The kicker prices allow for higher priced options in the other five slots. We’ll go with Santos to kick a couple field goals in what should be a low scoring affair.