Mythic Kilrogg – Visions Phase

December 21, 2015 | Posted in The Randomness of Publishing | By

Make the videos.  Write some posts.  Write some posts with videos included.  For Mythic Kilrogg to die, the Vision Phases 1 and 2 have to be executed.  Now, what’s the goal inside Visions?  I kill the adds until I die and come out with the buff.

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Orange parsing.  World class?  it isn’t for me to judge … I haven’t been involved in the opportunity to progress on Mythic Kilrogg.  Yet.  I know the encounter.  I’m not going to make the mistakes on deadly throes and heartseeker and the group I join … you’ll already have your Visions Group set.  I know how to do them.

This video is of me killing Mythic Kilrogg and getting out of Deadly Throes … something I’ve been practicing since my first kill on Heroic in September 2015 when I did 35k as iLvl 700.  I started later than the groups who are on Gorefiend.  Mythic Gorefiend is a progression halter … 4 raid weeks, 100 pulls … maybe more … then the first 3 upper bosses die in the next 3 raid weeks and Gorefiend gets skipped.

It’s that group I’d like to join … We’ll start on Mythic Gorefiend where Frost Mage is going be plenty good enough to progress on the encounter.

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The logs tell a story.  95th percentile Frost Mage damage = 109k on Heroic Kilrogg.  98th percentile shadow priest damage 166k and I love the healers putting out orange and purple damage … the effort those healers put into to parsing orange on holy paladin DPS.  Now here’s your problem MM hunter 75th percentile class damage is 85k on heroic Kilrogg … both hunters played extremely well as indicated by their bracket percentage yet were crushed on their ego measure …. by a frost mage who’s suppose to be playing arcane for the encounter because 90th percentile arcane mage damage on the encounter is 260k.

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It’s mythic … I parsed green on the encounter … my first attempt getting “carried” by a 10/13 (m) guild who progressed to 12/13 (m) while I was on the bench.  Our relationship didn’t work out.  I had a lot of fun … got to see Mythic Kilrogg and Mythic Council for the first time and got the kill achieves.  And some gear.  I had 100% attendance rate for 5 weeks.

90th percentile arcane mage damage, 260k, 95th percentile frost mage damage, Heroic Kilrogg, 109k.  You can’t have that kind of imbalance between class specs.  IMHO, this kind of class spec imbalance has a name … flavor of the month (fotm).  Fire Mage, you were FOTM in BRF, and Arcane Mage you’re FOTM (for a long time … this will be WoW’s longest tier in history) for Hellfire Citadel.

I’m going to play frost mage.  On your BRF mythic team, the 60k I busted on Thogar playing frost mage would have been good enough to progress.  50k playing frost mage on mythic beastlord … would have been good enough to progress.  Blast Furnace … another story.  I have the secondary spec and if team progression is dependent on me playing my off spec … then fine.  I’ll come in there and play it well enough for us to progress.  Rasta had to come play 45th percentile arcane mage so we could progress?  You don’t want to be that group.

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There’s a 48th percentile arcane mage doing 57k on Heroic Kilrogg.  I played frost, played it 90th percentile, and beat the arcane mage by 40k.  It’s called evidence me playing arcane mage at 50th percentile … the time I’d have to take to learn the rotation … it’s not worth it at this point in the game.  In this point of progression … mythic Gorefiend …. where are you 5/13 (m) group raiding 9pmish to 1amish EST???

I’m going to be real quiet.  There’s people sleeping in the house.  I’m going to show up and I’m going to put some solid Ranged DPS on whatever encounter … Progression Ranged DPS.  Try to beat me on the damage taken meter.

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Damage Taken Mythic Reaver kill … 4 people dead … 15 Dec 2015.  58k dps.  I was alive, second week in a row, we progressed.

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Damage Taken Mythic Kormok – 3 dead – 72k.  I was alive.  We progressed.

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Damage Taken Mythic Kilrogg … 5 dead … Not me, I was alive and did 66k.  We progressed.  Who’s carrying who here Dub?

Thanks for the inspiration … I can make all these new posts and get rid of all the headlines about this community’s fucked up water system.

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Frost Mage Parses

December 18, 2015 | Posted in The Randomness of Publishing | By

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You know how many times I had to switch to the dogs in melee because melee didn’t single target them?  Remember when the dogs would switch?  How many times you wipe on mythic Flamebender because the dogs didn’t die at the same time??

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Progression to orange parses.  First I have to learn the encounter.  then I have to get the gear …

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Then I have to practice.  first 2 kills on Iron Reaver, I was dead.  We progressed.  Then on my third kill I lived and we progressed because guess who practiced and became really good at dodging barrage?  Attacking the right bomb?  Putting artillery where it needs to go during Air Phase?

Just like everybody else … I’m not immune to mistakes.  I have to learn the encounter.  I need the 25 pulls in a single night.  The 100 pulls to kill mythic gorefiend.  the 125 pulls to kill mythic mannoroth.  The 200 pulls on Mythic Archimonde.

At some point … I’m going to have memorized the encounter and if I make the mistake .. it’s what a battlerez is for.  We don’t save them just in case … we use them because someone made a mistake early, a mistake they know they can’t make, and it simply puts the pressure on others not to make mistakes down because the battlerez is gone because Rasta died on first barrage.

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Look how terrible I am on mythic hellfire assault.  Green parses.  I have many of them.  Many gray parses as well.

Progression.  You think the mechanics of Hellfire Assault promotes an orange parse?  Nobody is playing frost mage on mythic assault, there’s only 11,991 parses.

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I’m so terribad look at the gray and green parsing.  I completely skipped blue parsing on this encounter.  Since nobody=11,000 … 22,000 … double nobodies.  What color is after purple in these logs?

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So many gray parses.  What’s the minimum dps for a heroic kill on Tyrant?  one two and move … one two and move …. stack except when you get debuff … move away, to other side, get knocked into the wall not into the middle of the room don’t stand in the corrupted ground.  Wait, and I have to push 5 buttons????

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So many gray parses.  Gray median percentile.  Even at a 33rd percentile, I did over 45k which is the number in heroics.

Progression.  What color comes after blue?  Or am I simply going to skip that color on Mannoroth?

It’s only heroic.  anyone can parse orange on heroic.

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That’s a hardly a carry the first and only time I’ve seen the encounter on mythic difficulty.

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It’s hardly a carry when it’s the first time I’ve seen the fight on mythic difficulty and there were 5 people dead on the kill.

It certainly becomes problematic not playing arcane mage on this encounter.  I’ll sit.  What’s the minimum dps per person to kill Mythic Kilrogg?  You need me to play arcane to carry you?  Are you going to make the arcane mages play fire on Xhul and Shadow Lord?  You going to make the DKs play unholy?

The second me playing frost mage isn’t good enough to progress, I’ll sit.  I’ll have the appropriate secondary spec and if we progressed only because I played arcane mage, then I’m finding a different team.

Meh attitude?  The 50 temporal crystals, 50 sorcerous fire, 50 sorcerous water, and 50 sorcerous air plus 23,500 goldz I placed in your guild chest is hardly a meh attitude.  The meh attitude comes in when the green parsing arcane mage gets beat in damage by the blue parsing frost mage who’s 10 iLvls lower and the same frost mage beating hunters and rogues.  90th percentile frost mage damage has a way of making people jealous.

You know how many fire mages I destroyed on the DPS meter on heroic thogar?  You think on mythic thogar it would have been any different?  Dodging the trains like a pro plus spell stealing the cauterize before it even ticked once when the interrupt was missed on the cast.  It’s called picking up the slack that allows players more challenged by the jump to mythic to make mistakes.

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meh, 87k on heroic gorefiend.  The adds get pwnd inside his stomach, I blink to the person rooted, I put doom far away And overlap it, how pro, I catch an interrupt on the big add, stack during feast, get out of the swirly purple circles forming a ring on the ground, and I make sure the adds are dead before the feast stack … the new mechanic and changes in mythic … well, after we down Kilrogg, let’s see the encounter … let’s see the encounter for 4 raid weeks because that’s about the average for a kill on Mythic Gorefiend, (100 pulls), not to mention a boss you can skip and head onto Upper Floor Progression after the first victory.

Boss, your group has what it takes to finish the tier in Top 1,000 world time.  You’re amazinglyleet … pro … all of you because you stuck it out mostly together.  Those tough nights on Gorefiend, your WoW Progress tells a story I wasn’t part of .. I didn’t participate, I came in at the end when you’re at the final push to actually finish the tier.  On Mythic.  Bro so many of the guilds can’t kill Archmonde on Normal.

I don’t know what your group went through to get where you’re at … the learning phase of Mythic Archimonde.  People are tired, it’s the holidays … World 126th took 229 pulls on Mythic Archimonde, server first on Thrall.  Your group, Amicitia, you’re going to smoke that number, under 150 pulls?

Dub, you should be online writing about what it takes, the time … of everyone involved … the commitment to be at 12/13 (M), World 844.  The changes players have to make to be at that level … Weak Auras 2 is the difference between me parsing first in all the world … and where I parse now.  Plus when I get the trinket off Iskar and I run frost bomb on Iskar, Xhul, Hellfire Assault .. maybe Council and make Icy Veins rewrite their PvE page regarding Frost Mage Talents.

And come on boss, you can’t give me a strike if I didn’t know.  If I did something after I was told then it would be a strike.  And you didn’t have to act all in charge … we know you’re the boss … and the wipe on Mythic Assault was Needed.  Humbling … the way mythic humbles 17 man heroic spank squads who don’t spend any of their time in Heroic Farm Week practicing the mythic formation … the way you did … so pro dude … you know the disasters I see in Group Finder on Heroic Iskar & Soc …. it’s how I was able to live on Council and do encounter appropriate DPS … you taught me the formation and I’ve always been good at Reap, getting it to a good spot, it’s the first thing I had to learn to do well when I learned the encounter at Heroic Difficulty.

Kilrogg, it’s a different formation …. same principles … and come on, you know it was sexy when I caught that interrupt on the Hulking Berserker.  It’s been a long time since Deadly Throes were an issue or I’ve put HeartSeeker in a bad place …. Sure,  I could be arcane mage and do 250k damage … or I can play frost mage, do 70k, catch an interrupt on the big add, put heartseeker in the right place, slow and kill the fixated adds then other adds … do some dps on the run during Deadly Throes and we progress.

We should have talked before I server transferred … I didn’t feel entitled.  I was there to earn a spot, give a tired player a break and help finish the tier spending the rest of the time on my main helping people on their alts.  Running parses.  And oh yeah, making YouTube Videos.  It doesn’t matter, nobody watches …. I don’t get any hits.

Congratulations on finishing the tier.  You picked up some good people from open raid … you’ll have a lot of fun farming those mythic bosses the next 10 months.  Practicing.

LoL … nobody ever reads this far down anything I write so now it’s pretty much like talking to myself.  I an eternal sort of way.   This thing called the internet, it’s probably here to stay.  If it’s on the internet it’s true.  Bro, I have 2 such of these sites.  The YouTube channel.

Nice try discrediting my data to support my claim as a world class orange parsing raider.  People no likey when data does the story telling.  Jealous arguments, crushed by reality.  The reality of data. 

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Meh, 78k.  95th percentile.  61st percentile in bracket.  Far from my best of 757 or so ….

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Meh, purple parse … 72k.  Can we go in and 1 phase heroic reaver for Parse purposes?  Funzzzz

Oh, most of the people running parses are trying …. whatever excuses you can try to come up with to discredit data.  Anyone can parse purple on heroic.  On Reaver, one phasing Reaver results in an orange parse.

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Took that parse while I was on Stormreaver doing what I thought we were suppose to be doing .. server transferring, joining the Guild, then being available during raid times, whether needed or not.  5 weeks I was with you.  Why did it become so problematic in the past 5 days?

Because last week I parsed blue on Reaver and was one of the 13 who lived and progressed.  This week, same on Kilrogg … although my parse was green.  One of the 14 who lived and we progressed.  Whats so hurtful to people’s feelings about getting out dps’d by a frost mage?

Damage Taken tab kills bosses.  DPS Tab measures ego.

Venruki doesn’t have a single AoTC and blizzard gives him the gear for their tournaments he doesn’t win anymore.

Did you extend me the same courtesy as expected?  You read Everything I had to write?  All 1600 easily flowing words about playing World of Warcraft Frost Mage.

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Iron Maidens DPS Meter

April 29, 2015 | Posted in The Randomness of Publishing | By

As a Frost Mage, I’m challenged by the deftness of fire specialization in the AoE Fights in Blackrock Foundry at the Heroic Difficulty.  It’s almost required one be a fire spec mage for Beastlord Darmac, Blast Furnace, Iron Maidens, and Kromog.  People pay so much attention to a single Tab of either recount or skada … DPS … they forget what mythic progression is really about.  Instance appropriate DPS the entire fight … from the start of the fight to the end of the fight.

Below is the link to a PuG Heroic Maidens kill.

1 person died to bombs.  The fail mechanic on Iron Maidens … meaning you’re going to get kicked out of your PuG if you continuously fail to this mechanic … and and an amazinglyleet number of people died to turrets … five!!!

Now, if you’re skilled in life you can use the new window on your computer and sort through the data … and find Damage Done.

Along with 2 numbers for DPS.  These numbers are what they are … Damage Done …. it’s the number that matters.  Active Time.  And enough DPS being alive …. 9 people did 30k (plus) DPS, the number I believe needed for Heroic BRF Progression.

I played fire on this fight because I had to learn it again.  Bottom line is, this is RastaJay, Frost Mage, its what I play.  And at iLvl 687, frost bomb may be enough to get me by in the AOE fights because there’s no question when I earn Blackhand AOTC, I will be downing him in frost spec.

I play frost mage at a high level.  Mobile Ranged DPS.  Flamethrowers on Brackenspore.  Orbs on Ko’Ragh.  Captain of the Boat Team on Maidens, although I do bombs really well and boat teams are already established for the organizations I’m looking to join.

I server transferred.  US-Dalaran, you don’t have a single organization 1/10 (M) in Blackrock Furnace, horde side, on the entire server … and there are a total of 2 organizations with enough people to even attempt Mythic Content in WoD.   There wasn’t enough opportunity and I wasn’t going to join the other 20 man Mythic Fails squad on the server because mythic progression on US-Dalaran, horde side, doesn’t exist.  And don’t blame server population … there’s a lot more horde evenly split with alliance on the server than you think … blame the fact it’s populated by new players to the game because dalaran pops up first when they create a new account.  Watching another influx on new players trying to put together 10 to 15 man normal progression raid teams made me realize the only answer to attempting mythic progression was a server transfer.

I chose US-Thrall.  A lot of opportunity.  I have an opportunity tonight.  And when you google RastaJay + WoW … maybe to check my armory, I’ve created some things that google gives an opportunity to read.

The kind of ranged dps who switches to the Cinder Wolf with less health after the switch from melee on Flamebender.  I’ll iceblock molten torrent if I can.  Sometimes twice.  I don’t stand in the lava slash and try to be standing in a good place as ranged if selected for this mechanic.  Sadly, amp magic is taken away … too op’d at the pvp level …

The kind of ranged DPS who stopped getting hit by stampers on Hans + Franz after a couple pulls.  Stopped getting hit by trains after a few pulls.  Stopped dying to the bomb phase on Maidens (because fire mage is horrific for boat duty) … mobile, ranged dps … after a few pulls.  I don’t get pinned on Beastlord …  I dodge the rings on Kromog (and put some heavy AOE dps on the hands) …. and I’m DPSing the right add at the right time on Blast Furnace.

The kind of ranged DPS who interrupts and stuns the Furnace Engineer (3rd Bellow Operator at phase anyone??) … spellsteals the man at arms, counterspell the fire mender on a focus target macro … i’ll sheep a trash add like a motherfucker and ring of the frost the rest of ’em …. these are some intangibles of what I bring to a 20 man mythic progression team.

The logs I’ve created this past week aren’t overwhelming.  16th percentile.  25th percentile.

Finally, a look at the Damage Taken for Heroic Maidens kill.  Not a single point of damage from bomb dodging portions of the fight.

Oh yeah, I did 37k DPS on the fight.  The entire fight.  From start to finish … so while 7 of you died … the 20 of us progressed and you have the opportunity to be better next week.

Here’s hoping US-Thrall leads me down the road of Mythic Content.  And here’s to hoping tonight’s raid is being logged by someone because my system really can’t handle it.  The data is what it is … and I have a theory … the more one pays attention to the DPS Tab in Recount/Skada, the fewer mythic bosses they kill.







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The Drama of Dalaran

January 13, 2015 | Posted in The Randomness of Publishing | By

I “tried out” with 6 people from my server trying to put together a 20 man mythic team.  R.I.P needing 20 people from the same server for Mythic Progression.

I did 18k DPS on Heroic Brackenspore with this group.  It was considered “sub-par” and it is … 20k DPS is the minimum for heroic bosses.

I provided some “data” on this thread regarding the Heroic Brackenspore pull in question.

You can read the posts back from the #2 guild on my server and these clowns thinking they have what it takes for Mythic Progression.

1.  18k is what you would expect to see on Normal Brackenspore.  You sir, are correct.

2.  Yes, I had to use my frozen orb on the spore shooters because no one else was on them and I had to ice block because they spawned so far away I wasn’t under the healing green mushroom.  You’re saying, “spin my frozen orb into the boss and add … sure, I would get more DPS, but it’s not on the correct target.  18k on the correct targets > 25k tunneled on the boss.

3.  Comet Storm should never be used as a level 100 talent.   The DPS for this talent, on the run, every 30 seconds, > the dps increase every 90 seconds, having to stand still … this is mythic progression we are discussing … and I sacrifice DPS numbers for mobility.

4.  All my other points are irrelevant?  What about lust NOT being used at the correct time and every single one of my dps hammer abilities on cooldown.  That’s irrelevant?  What about the formation being incorrect and ranged having to take down the mind fungus?  What about the mind fungus not going down quickly enough and standing through 3-4 casts slowed?  That’s irrelevant?

5.  You completely ignore the data provided in the thread.  18k, on the correct target, standing in the correct place, > 25k tunneled on the boss … for this fight.

6.  iLvl 663 … I’m wearing 6 pieces of 660 conquest gear which does NOT scale the same way iLvl 655 PvE gear scales … I passed on all these drops for 6 weeks now because I had 660 gear.  SimDps.  Rofl.  Again I ask, is there a SimDamage Taken?  Because I finished dead last out of your crew of cross server flunkies in damage taken that fight.

Anyone who takes this game seriously enough for Mythic Progression recognizes the truth here … 18k DPS, on the right target, standing in the right place > 25k … which the data shows wasn’t put in the correct place.  Damage Meter whoring is the single point that will prevent Mythic Progression.

The DPS who know where to stand, know the target to attack, can put DPS on the boss while on the run = mythic progression in Warlords of Draenor.

My 22k on heroic bosses, standing in the right place, on the correct target = dead bosses.

Tunneling on the boss, not practicing formation and mechanics on EVERY encounter, regardless of difficulty = mythic frustration opposed to mythic progression.

There isn’t a single organization on Dalaran Horde side who will get Mythic Brackenspore.  Mythic Progression is Kargath, Twins, then Brackenspore.

Keep using your SimDps Meter to evaluate talent.  WoW Progress will inform me about how this goes.

and God Bless Open Raid … where there’s a dozen people putting together Mythic Progression teams, cross server.  I have the discipline to be one of the ranged DPS on these mythic progression teams.  Mobile Ranged DPS.  Sacrificing a little bit on the damage meter because mobility is more important.  I focus on the Damage Taken tab of Recount because mythic DPS is just as much about NOT taking damage as it is doing damage.

Lets recap … you didn’t lust at the right time, you’re flame thrower people were horrible, the mind fungus spawned outside of melee, only 2 of your ranged dps were on the spore shooters, and it was almost a wipe when you factor in all these factors.

The 18k DPS was start to finish on the fight.  on the correct targets.  from the correct position.

But hey, I’m the baddie because my iLvl is 663 and some simulation says that was 7k short.  RoFL.



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5 Things We Learned in Week 8

October 28, 2014 | Posted in The Randomness of Publishing | By

SuperMan is here to save the New York Jets and Rex Ryan.

SuperMan is here to save the New York Jets and Rex Ryan.

Week 8 of the 2014 NFL Season has passed.  Season is about half over and now’s the time to take stock of what’s really going on this season.

1.  The Chargers are pretenders.

In 10 days, San Diego went from toast of the town to pretenders.  2 division losses, one at home, in a span of 10 days has Vegas saying flip a coin in Week 9 on the road @ Miami.  Week 13 @ Baltimore, Weeks 14 & 15 at home against New England and Denver with Week 16 on the road @ San Francisco may have the “resurgent” Phillip Rivers on the outside looking in come playoff time.

2.  The Lions will be a force to reckon with come January.

They’re winning games they would normally lose.  Another 1 point win this week in dramatic fashion, in London, without Calvin Johnson or Reggie Bush.  This defense is legit.  And Matthew Stafford is quietly making a case he’s the best QB taken #1 overall in the past 15 years.  Detroit has their bye Week 9, the schedule doesn’t seem overly daunting, they own wins over Green Bay and Minnesota in the division, and a 1 game lead in the standings.

3.  Tom Brady and New England are far from finished.

A 51 point explosion at home against Chicago.  149 yards and 3 TDs for Gronkowski who looks healtheir and healtheir this week.  The losses on defense are catastrophic … again.  You’re gonna have to beat New England for the fourth year in a row to represent the AFC in SuperBowl 49.

4.  It’s Michael Vick time. 

Vick saves the Jets season and Rex Ryan’s job.  They win every game Vick starts and are alive for the playoffs Week 17.

5.  It’s the same old Cowboys disguised by a healthy DeMarco Murray. 

A terrible loss on Monday Night Football at home to division rival Washington with Colt McCoy making his first start in 2 season.  And Romo re-injured his back.  This week at home vs. 6-1 Arizona followed by a road visit to Jacksonville then the bye.  Do we see the new and improved 8-2 Cowboys heading into Week 12s division showdown on Sunday night against the New York football Giants?  7-3?  6-4 is where its going to be if Brandon Weeden is starting these next 2 weeks.

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20 Amazingly Leet NFL Predictions for 2014

August 27, 2014 | Posted in The Randomness of Publishing | By

Back by popular demand, here are my 20 Amazingly Leet Predictions for the 2014 NFL Season.

1.  New England breaks Denver’s yardage record, Tom Brady challenges Manning’s 55 TDs, and New England wins Super Bowl 49. 

Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins, Julian Edelman, a hopefully healthy Danny Amendola, and they added Brandon LaFell.  Five solid options at WR and this writer is banking on a healthy 16 games from TE Rob Grankowski.  Stevan Ridley adds power to the running game and Shane Vereen could be all world in PPR fantasy leagues.

2.  5 QBs pass for 5,000 yards

Manning, Brady, Brees, Stafford, and Rodgers.

This is the New NFL.

In 2002, 4 QBs threw for 4,000 yards. In 2003, 2 QBs threw for 4,000 yards.  In 2004, 5 QBs threw for 4,000 yards.

In 2013, 9 QBs threw for 4,000 yards and Dan Marino’s 1984 record 5,084 yards was surpassed by 2 QBs.  In 2012, 11 QBs threw for 4,000 yards … the same total, 11, as the years 2002-2004.  The NFL is a pass first league and the records will continue to fall in coming seasons.  In 2011, 10 QBs threw for 4,000 yards with 3 QBs over 5,000 yards, including two surpassing Marino’s 5084 yards in 1984.

5,000 passing yards in a season has been accomplished 8 times by 5 players.  Brees, Stafford, Brady, and Manning simply throw for 5,000 yards again in their careers, like Drew Brees has done 4 times in his career, and they are joined by 5k newcomer Aaron Rodgers making 5 NFL QBs with 5,000 yards.

3.  Julio Jones breaks Calvin Johnson’s record for yardage in a season. 

His athleticism, size, speed, hands, everything about him is All Pro.  This writer is banking on a healthy 16 games from Jones who easily replaces the production of TE Tony Gonzalez.

4.  It’s Tampa Bay in the playoff conversation Week 17, not Carolina

Lovie Smith has some talent on both sides of the ball in Tampa Bay.  Josh McCown shows he can start in the NFL, Vincent Jackson has an All-Pro year, rookies Mike Evans and Austin-Seferian Jenkins (first round talent) develop on the faster end of the WR and TE scale, and Doug Martin leads the NFL in rushing, with 1477 yards.

5.  Rob Gronkowski breaks Randy Moss’ record for receiving TDs in a season. 

See #1.  24 TDs for Gronk in 2014.

6.  Demaryius Thomas breaks Moss’ record as well. 

No doubt the Denver offense will roll this year, just not to last year’s level.  Now the clear #1 option in the passing game, his elite talent combined with the record assault on passing yardage and associated records has him hauling in a league leading 25 TDs.

7Reggie Bush has 2,000 combined yards and double digit TDs. 

Bush pounds out 1300 yards on the ground and another 700 through the air on 80 receptions.  The other running backs on the Lions do not matter, it’s all about what Reggie Bush does on his 20 touches per game.  This writer is banking on 15 carries a game plus 80 receptions … 320 touches, 16 games, 20 touches per game.  It’s realistic.

Maybe since the season is just starting, one can be hopeful and say Reggie Bush has 346 touches in 2014, 21.625 touches per game.  Bush averages 5.8 yards per touch over his 7 year NFL career.  346 * 5.8 = 2,029.  It’s not THAT far fetched.

8.  No RB rushes for more than 1500 yards.

In 2002, 4 RBs rushed for 1500 yards.  In 2003, 6 RBs rushed for 1500 yards.  In 2004, 5 RBs rushed for 1500 yards.  In 2011, 1 RB rushed for 1500 yards.  In 2012, 4 RBs rushed for 15oo yards.  In 2013, 1 RB rushed for 1500 yards.  The days of the 20 carries per game for a feature back are disappearing as the New NFL adopts a running back by committee approach.  The 2014 NFL draft featured Bishop Sankey, RB, selected in the second round at Pick 54, the latest a RB has ever been taken in an NFL draft.

9.  2014 is Tony Romo’s last season in Dallas.

Jason Garrett too.  The defense will be too lousy and Tony Romo will make key mistakes in key situations leaving Dallas on the outside looking in come Wild Card weekend in January 2015.

10.  Victor Cruz reestablishes himself as the go to receiver in the NFC East.

Because its the New York Giants in playoff contention come Week 17, not Dallas.

11.  The loss of Knowshon Moreno, Eric Decker, plus Wes Welker’s concussion issues, impact Denver more than Las Vegas odds currently indicate.

I wrote why Denver will not win Superbowl 49.   Hey Mike, it’s a website.  I can’t list everything on a single page, it’s why a website has multiple pages.  You have to clink on the links to learn more.  Manning and Denver will be every bit as explosive on offense in 2014 and their defense made improvements with the signing of Ware and Ward.  There’s simply less options … creating the opportunity for Demaryius Thomas to showcase his elite talent.

12.  Seattle plays on the road during the NFC playoffs as an 11 win team

The NFC West goes to San Francisco.

13.  10 wins misses the 2014 NFC Playoffs for the 3rd year in a row.

St. Louis, Chicago, Detroit, Tampa, Carolina, Dallas, New York Giants (do you really still doubt Eli Manning after 2007 & 2011?), Philadelphia, New Orleans, San Francisco, Atlanta, Seattle, Green Bay.  13 teams, I didn’t include Arizona, Washington, or Minnesota and all 3 of those teams are going to be better than conventional wisdom dictates, and there are 6 playoff spots.

14.  2014 NFC Division Winners – San Francisco, New Orleans, Green Bay, Philadelphia in order of seeding.

Do the New York Giants win the NFC East?  How many wins does it take to win the NFC East?  8? 9? Does New Orleans win 14 games and come away with the #1 seed in the conference?  Will Detroit and Chicago both contend in the NFC North?  The NFL is so difficult to prognosticate.

15.  2014 AFC Division Winners – New England, Denver, Cincinnati, Indianapolis  in order of seeding

Will 2013 Playoff teams Kansas City and San Diego challenge Denver for the AFC West title?  Is Cincinnati really too talented to miss the playoffs entirely?  How good will Houston be defensively this year?  The intrigue is much lower in the AFC this season … Oakland, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Baltimore, Tennessee, Miami, and Buffalo are not in legitimate conversations when it comes to division winners.

16.  2014 NFC Wildcard Teams – Seattle, Tampa Bay

Anointing Seattle repeat champions in 2014 is ridiculous.  Writing the Seahawks aren’t going to make the 2014 playoffs is ignorant.  They’re too talented returning too many players on a significantly more dominant defense statistically than any other team to miss out on January playoff action.  Tampa Bay is one of the surprise teams, 2013’s version of Kansas City/San Diego.

17.  2014 AFC Wild Card Teams – Pittsburgh, New York Jets

Roethlisberger reminds everyone he’s a franchise QB and somehow, some way, the New York Jets find a way to sneak in at #6 amidst a 5 way tie in the AFC at 9-7.  You’ll need an abacus to figure out the tie breakers and Rex Ryan prevails.  He might be the greatest coach in the history of the NFL.

18.  2014 NFC Final Four – San Francisco, Seattle, Green Bay,  New Orleans

Seattle @ San Francisco in the 2014 NFC Division Round is just too epic.  Already playing two games in the 2014 Regular season, swept by SF, giving the niners home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs … their third meeting of the season adds to their already epic lore as it may be the NFLs premiere rivalry.

19.  2014 AFC Final Four – New England, Denver, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis

Belichick continues to madden Ben Roethlisberger and New England escapes with a win against the one team nobody wanted to see in the playoffs.  Denver handles Luck and Company despite Manning’s poor performance, setting up Manning v Brady, in New England, for the 2014 AFC Championship.  The intrigue and drama.

20.  SuperBowl 49 – New England v. San Francisco

Tom Brady and Bill Belichick play in a record 6th SuperBowl, bringing home the elusive fourth title.  New England will be all in for the next three seasons with Tom Brady playing the quarterback position.  A title in 2014, followed by a title in either 2015 (back to back) or 2016, would give Tom Brady 5 Superbowl rings.  There would be no debate, Montana never won 5 Superbowls.  In the mid 1980s, the Chicago Bears, Washington Redskins, and New York Giants prevented Montana from even playing in 5 Superbowls, and we’d be talking about Brady with 7 Superbowl appearances with 5 titles.  In 2014, there was simply too much talent on the offensive side of the ball and the resurgent Patriot defense, led by a healthy Jarod Mayo, the reestablishment of Revis Island, coupled with the best line backing corps Belichick has guided since Harry Carson, Lawrence Taylor, Carl Banks, and Pepper Johnson all contributed to the Patriots magical 2014 season.


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