September 6, 2019 | Posted in: The Randomness of Publishing
After a Thursday night top half finish in showdown, we are excited to enter the Sunday Classic featuring the 1pm EST and 4pm EST games for a total of twelve games. We’ve slipped the coin and decided to stack Minnesota, at home, making the difficult decision over stacking Tampa at home. In Famous Jameis we trust to chuck the ball 50 times a game. Also, a Jacksonville Contrarian Stack is being considered.
Cousins at home
At quarterback, we like Kirk Cousins ($5,500). Minnestoa plays a Falcons team healthy defensively for the first time since Week 1 of the 2018 season, returning stud linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal. Questions abound for second year corner Isaiah Oliver and a year older Desmond Trufant. The potential for Diggs to miss the game makes Cousins’ more attractive for a stack as he theoretically feeds fewer option in higher volume.
Offensively, the Falcons return a healthy Devonta Freeman with Calvin Ridley entering his second season and Mohamed Sanu always a threat. Revamping the right side of the offensive line in the 2019 NFL Draft will be evaluated for the first time with first rounders Chris Lindstrom at right guard and Kaleb McGary at right tackle. The game sits at 47 o/u, third highest on the slate of weekend games, and has all the makings of a shootout as Minnesota will be forced to throw to keep up.
The danger is Atlanta displaying amazinglyleet defense.
The Minnesota Stack
Everyone is expecting big things from Dalvin Cook ($6,000), and he’s almost a must play in GPP games. Especially since Cook will be playing in Gary Kubiak’s apparently magical zone blocking scheme. The prospect of Diggs not playing make Adam Thielen ($6,800) and Kyle Rudolph ($3,300) strong plays on potential volume and an attractive Vikings stack.
Value in Ekeler and Godwin
Chris Godwin ($6,200) is expected to catch 100 passes this season on the road in a game with a 51 o/u. Melvin Gordon III contract talks with the Los Angeles Chargers are suspended meaning Ekeler ($5,500) enters Week 1 as the lead back against the Indianapolis Colts. The o/u sits at 44.5 with the Chargers by 6.5.
Andrew Luck’s shocking retirement leaves Jacoby Brissett, and his fresh $30MM dollar contract, positioning to lead the Colts to the land of competitiveness. The Chargers will be a popular pick in Eliminator games but buyer beware: a Colts team suddenly “terrible” without Andrew Luck, no Derwin James, an overlooked Indianapolis pass defense … this game has all the makings of an upset with Indianapolis a solid bet at +6.5.
DeDe Westbrook + Julio Jones
Julio Jones ($8,000) will be up against 29 year old Xavier Rhodes while second year corner Mike Hughes, working his way back from injury, will miss the opener, making second year man Alexander Mackensie next man up. Harrison Smith is a beast at strong safety yet the departure of free safety Andrew Sandejo leaves the unproven Anthony Harris, Marcus Epps, and Jayron Kearse to fill the void.
Dede Westbrook ($4,800) is expected to break out this season with developing chemistry in the preseason with new Jaguars’ quarterback Nick Foles highlighting potential. The Kansas City Chiefs are coming to town, testing one of the top defenses (heading into Week 1), and are expected to enter the season with all cylinders firing offensively.
Jacksonville was the only team preventing Patrick Mahomes from thorwing a touchdown pass last season. The o/u sits at 51.5. While Jacksonville would like to establish the run with Leonard Fournette, Foles may be pressed into throwing the ball forty times.
Baltimore the defense to roster
The Ravens ($3,800) open on the road against a Miami Dolphins team in complete rebuild mode. Intermittent rain is possible during the game and with Baltimore looking to run the ball this has all the makings of a 30-0 road shutout to open the season. Ryan Fitzpatrick will sling it and this game could be one of Fitzpatrick’s four interception gems. Baltimore is the most likely team to score a defensive or special teams touchdown Week 1.
The Tampa Stack
There’s some kind of illness “bug” affecting Mike Evans’ status for Sunday with the “bug” now affecting rookie linebacker Devin White, selected fifth overall this past April. Game temperatures are expected to be 110 so Evans will most likely sweat it out. Ekeler and Cook are must plays.
Jacksonville contrarian stack
This option is still a work in progress.
Week 1 Picks
Green Bay over Chicago (+145).
Sunday Early Games
Tennessee (+6.0,-120) over Cleveland. We like Tennesse SU (+210) but will we actually make the bet SU or play it safe and take the points? Tennessee has the makings of top five defensive unit while the Browns are still the Browns. The computer models “loving” the Browns this weekend makes us like this bet even more.
Baltimore over Miami (-310). Safe money?
Sunday Late Games
Indianapolis (+6.5, -110). We like Indianapolis SU (+240) as this defense is being undervalued while the Chargers offense is being over valued in the Week 1 mist.
Sunday Night Game
New England (-145) at home against the Steelers. We’ll bet the Grand Master and the GOAT open the season at home with a win with Antonio Brown playing 30 snaps.
Monday Night Games
Houston (+7, -120) at New Orleans. Can the Houston offensive line give Watson the time he needs? Lattimore v. Hopkins? How does the departed Jadaveon Clowney impact Houston’s defense? The safe bet is New Orleans at home (-300).
Denver (-120) at Oakland. Road division game, no Antonio Brown, Denver’s edge rush will be delightful to watch all season and Joe Flacco shows he still has the arm.