We have enjoyed three cash finishes in our first year of Draft Kings and are hoping Week 4 Sunday Classic gives us our first monumental cash finish of the season.
Mahomes is a God
Mahomes is on pace for 6,300 yards and 53 touchdown passes through three games on the season. One can only hope to contain him and what’s scary is all this madness with the yardage and touchdowns being accomplished with Tyreek Hill on the sidelines with a weird collarbone injury.
Week 4 finds Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs traveling to Detroit facing a surprisingly undefeated Lions squad. Detroit ranks just 22nd against the pass through games surrendering 269.3 yards per game. We look for Mahomes to be Mahomes and score 30+ fantasy points
Value at Running Back
The Detroit/Kansas City game has the highest over/under of any weekend game, standing currently at 55. Kansas City ranks 26th against the run surrendering a paltry 137.7 yards per contest on the ground. We look for Kerryon Johnson to be utilized heavily in this game.
Marlon Mack faces an Oakland defense ranked 19th against the run giving up 119 yards on the ground per game. Mack is ranked highly by most prognosticators and the game sits at 45 over/under.
More Value at Wide Receiver
We’re going with Kenny Golladay in the highest over/under game of the week hoping he bounces back after flopping in Week 3 with high expectations.
We’re going to be watching Julian Edelman’s status for Sunday’s game. Edelman has been limited all week, amazing his teammates, and he’s just the kind of guy to tough through this injury because he’s a man’s man.
Rookie Terry McLaurin is becoming Case Keenum’s favorite target playing for a team throwing the ball due to second half deficits. The New York Football Giants rank 31st agains the pass surrendering a ridiculous 460.3 yards per contest. We and the prognosticators like McLaurin to continue his hot start.
Top Dollar at Tight End
We’re going with Travis Kelce, paying top dollar for Mahomes favorite target. We’re adding Kansas City’s big play threat, rookie Mecole Hardman, stepping into the Tyreek Hill role and look for him to continue his big play capability.
Los Angeles Rams Defense
Tampa’s offensive line is porous, Tampa is traveling out west, Aaron Donald got his first sack last week, and Famous Jameis is well overdue for a pick six.
After a cash finish in Monday Night’s Week 3 Showdown, we are excited to enter this team in Thursday Night’s game where the Eagles of Philadelphia travel to the Packers of Green Bay where perhaps the Packers will prevail by kicking an oblong ball made of pigskin through a big H.
Who else but Rodgers as Captain?
Aaron Rodgers is a Hall of Famer playing at home on a short week against an Eagles team struggling against the pass. After three weeks, the Eagles rank 29th against pass giving up 293.7 yards per game and allowing 2.33 touchdown passes per game.
Nelson Agholor will o/u 2.5 drops
Green Bay is playing stellar defense ranking fifth against the pass surrendering just 192.7 yards per contest and has allowed just one passing touchdown on the season. Our expectation is these numbers are skewed on the low end and Wentz could have a decent night.
DeSean Jackson remains on the sidelines with an abdominal injury and while Alshon Jeffrey “could play” Thursday Night, we like Agholor to once again dominate target shares as he produced eight catches on 12 targets in the Eagles’ Week 3 loss to the Lions.
GB pass catchers galore
We’re paying top price for DaVante Adams and adding Marquez Valdes-Scantling as he dominated the target share in Week 3 against the Lions totaling six grabs on ten targets for 99 yards and a touchdown.
Detroit’s Big Play Darius Slay covered Adams well in week 3 as Adams caught all four of his targets for 56 yards.
Will Packers D continue hot start?
Team defenses are always a decent play in Showdown as the prices allow for more high priced stars like Adams and making Rodgers captain. Green Bay sacked Joe Flacco six times in Week 3 while Wentz was sacked three times by a surprisingly undefeated Lions team. We like the sacks to fall somewhere in the middle in Thursday’s contest and maybe Green Bay scores on defense or special teams.
Mack Hollins a decent play?
With DeSean Jackson out with injury, Hollins saw seven targets in Week 3, producing four catches for 62 yards. At $2,400 for Thursday’s contest, Hollins offers decent value.
Los Angeles Rams Stack
In a rematch of the 2018 NFC Championship game, the New Orleans Saints travel to Los Angeles to face Jared Goff and the Rams. The o/u sits at 52 and after New Orleans surrendered 28 points to Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans in a thrilling 30-28 win Week 1, this game has all the makings of a shootout.
Devin Singletary, Alvin Kamara
We’re going to spend the big bucks on Kamara ($8200) after Christian McCaffrey gashed the Rams for 209 all purpose yards and two touchdowns. Kamara was held out of the end zone in Week 1 so we like his chances to score multiple times in a high scoring affair against the Rams.
Singletary produced 98 total yards on 9 touches, including five catches. While future Hall of Fame back Frank Gore is technically the “starter”, Singletary is the more talented player and could thrive as a stingy Buffalo defense could mean a low score for the Giants and multiple running opportunities late in the game.
Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods
Kupp ($6,000) and Woods ($6,400) combined for 23 targets Week 1 in the Rams’ 30-27 win over Carolina. Cooks managed six targets so we’re going with the odds the duo dominates the target share for a second straight week.
Tyrell Williams, Darren Waller
Oakland, minus Antonio Brown and his dramatics, defeated the Denver Broncos 24-16 Week 1 in the last Monday Night game ever at Oakland Coliseum. Williams ($4,400) grabbed six of seven targets for 105 yards and a touchdown while Waller ($3,300) saw eight targets with seven receptions for 70 yards.
The Raiders, again at home, face the high octane Kansas Chiefs’ offense with the o/u string at an astounding 53.5. The fireworks could be real.
Michael Thomas as the Flex
Sticking with a stud wide receiver in the flex position, Thomas ($8,000) had 10 receptions for 123 yards on 13 targets in the Saints’ Week 1 win over the Texans.
After missing a cash in Monday Night’s Draft Kings Week 1 Classic by two points, we are excited to enter Thursday Night Showdown featuring the Carolina Panthers hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as Famous Jameis Winston tries to right the ship after a 31-17 home defeat to 49ers to begin the season.
Carolina Defense as Our Captain
In Week 1, Famous Jameis threw three interceptions and was sacked three times. Tampa’s offensive line appears to be porous and though Carolina surrendered 166 yards rushing in their Week 1 loss to the Los Angeles Rams and managed only one sack, we like Carolina’s defense to rebound on the short week in traditionally sloppy Thursday night games.
After Sunday Night’s $4 win in Draft King’s showdown during New England’s 33-3 drubbing of the Pittsburgh Steelers, we are excited to enter this line-up into Monday night’s classic game. The slate features a cross conference showdown in New Orleans with DeShaun Watson bringing his fireworks against future Hall of Famer Drew Brees followed by a divisional contest in Oakland with Broncos coming to town.
DeShaun Watson stack
While Houston’s offensive line makes us a bit nervous, the addition of Laremy Tunsil should help Watson connect with DeAndre Hopkins and a healthy (for now) Will Fuller. The o/u sits at 52.5 and has all the makings of a shootout.
Carlos Hyde the lead back?
Hyde, signed after being released by the Kansas City Chiefs, potentially slides into the lead back role after running back Lamar Miller suffered a season ending torn ACL in the preseason.
Are Williams and Sutton the 1?
After releasing Antonio Brown and his prompt signing with the New England Patriots, Tyrell Williams enters Week 1 as quarterback David Carr’s top target and could avoid top corner Chris Harris. Courtland Sutton, entering his second year and teamed with veteran quarterback Joe Flacco, showing he still has some arm, is expected to matchup with the Raiders’ Garreon Conley, entering his third season. Sutton is big, physical and the new trend is for receivers to break out in their second year.
Emmanuel Sanders enters his age 32 season and is returning from injury as the Broncos face a Raiders defense expected to struggle. We are all in on Sutton this year emerging as true #1 receiver for this offense.
After a Thursday night top half finish in showdown, we are excited to enter the Sunday Classic featuring the 1pm EST and 4pm EST games for a total of twelve games. We’ve slipped the coin and decided to stack Minnesota, at home, making the difficult decision over stacking Tampa at home. In Famous Jameis we trust to chuck the ball 50 times a game. Also, a Jacksonville Contrarian Stack is being considered.
Cousins at home
At quarterback, we like Kirk Cousins ($5,500). Minnestoa plays a Falcons team healthy defensively for the first time since Week 1 of the 2018 season, returning stud linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal. Questions abound for second year corner Isaiah Oliver and a year older Desmond Trufant. The potential for Diggs to miss the game makes Cousins’ more attractive for a stack as he theoretically feeds fewer option in higher volume.
Offensively, the Falcons return a healthy Devonta Freeman with Calvin Ridley entering his second season and Mohamed Sanu always a threat. Revamping the right side of the offensive line in the 2019 NFL Draft will be evaluated for the first time with first rounders Chris Lindstrom at right guard and Kaleb McGary at right tackle. The game sits at 47 o/u, third highest on the slate of weekend games, and has all the makings of a shootout as Minnesota will be forced to throw to keep up.
The danger is Atlanta displaying amazinglyleet defense.
The Minnesota Stack
Everyone is expecting big things from Dalvin Cook ($6,000), and he’s almost a must play in GPP games. Especially since Cook will be playing in Gary Kubiak’s apparently magical zone blocking scheme. The prospect of Diggs not playing make Adam Thielen ($6,800) and Kyle Rudolph ($3,300) strong plays on potential volume and an attractive Vikings stack.
Value in Ekeler and Godwin
Chris Godwin ($6,200) is expected to catch 100 passes this season on the road in a game with a 51 o/u. Melvin Gordon III contract talks with the Los Angeles Chargers are suspended meaning Ekeler ($5,500) enters Week 1 as the lead back against the Indianapolis Colts. The o/u sits at 44.5 with the Chargers by 6.5.
Andrew Luck’s shocking retirement leaves Jacoby Brissett, and his fresh $30MM dollar contract, positioning to lead the Colts to the land of competitiveness. The Chargers will be a popular pick in Eliminator games but buyer beware: a Colts team suddenly “terrible” without Andrew Luck, no Derwin James, an overlooked Indianapolis pass defense … this game has all the makings of an upset with Indianapolis a solid bet at +6.5.
DeDe Westbrook + Julio Jones
Julio Jones ($8,000) will be up against 29 year old Xavier Rhodes while second year corner Mike Hughes, working his way back from injury, will miss the opener, making second year man Alexander Mackensie next man up. Harrison Smith is a beast at strong safety yet the departure of free safety Andrew Sandejo leaves the unproven Anthony Harris, Marcus Epps, and Jayron Kearse to fill the void.
Dede Westbrook ($4,800) is expected to break out this season with developing chemistry in the preseason with new Jaguars’ quarterback Nick Foles highlighting potential. The Kansas City Chiefs are coming to town, testing one of the top defenses (heading into Week 1), and are expected to enter the season with all cylinders firing offensively.
Jacksonville was the only team preventing Patrick Mahomes from thorwing a touchdown pass last season. The o/u sits at 51.5. While Jacksonville would like to establish the run with Leonard Fournette, Foles may be pressed into throwing the ball forty times.
Baltimore the defense to roster
The Ravens ($3,800) open on the road against a Miami Dolphins team in complete rebuild mode. Intermittent rain is possible during the game and with Baltimore looking to run the ball this has all the makings of a 30-0 road shutout to open the season. Ryan Fitzpatrick will sling it and this game could be one of Fitzpatrick’s four interception gems. Baltimore is the most likely team to score a defensive or special teams touchdown Week 1.
The Tampa Stack
There’s some kind of illness “bug” affecting Mike Evans’ status for Sunday with the “bug” now affecting rookie linebacker Devin White, selected fifth overall this past April. Game temperatures are expected to be 110 so Evans will most likely sweat it out. Ekeler and Cook are must plays.
Jacksonville contrarian stack
This option is still a work in progress.
Week 1 Picks
Green Bay over Chicago (+145).
Sunday Early Games
Tennessee (+6.0,-120) over Cleveland. We like Tennesse SU (+210) but will we actually make the bet SU or play it safe and take the points? Tennessee has the makings of top five defensive unit while the Browns are still the Browns. The computer models “loving” the Browns this weekend makes us like this bet even more.
Baltimore over Miami (-310). Safe money?
Sunday Late Games
Indianapolis (+6.5, -110). We like Indianapolis SU (+240) as this defense is being undervalued while the Chargers offense is being over valued in the Week 1 mist.
Sunday Night Game
New England (-145) at home against the Steelers. We’ll bet the Grand Master and the GOAT open the season at home with a win with Antonio Brown playing 30 snaps.
Monday Night Games
Houston (+7, -120) at New Orleans. Can the Houston offensive line give Watson the time he needs? Lattimore v. Hopkins? How does the departed Jadaveon Clowney impact Houston’s defense? The safe bet is New Orleans at home (-300).
Denver (-120) at Oakland. Road division game, no Antonio Brown, Denver’s edge rush will be delightful to watch all season and Joe Flacco shows he still has the arm.