January 12, 2021 | Posted in: Publishing

Published for a friend

Six games scheduled

Today sees the third straight day with game cancellations because of COVID protocols.

Miami @ Philadelphia (-7)

Utah @ Cleveland (+10.5)

Denver @ Brooklyn (-1.5)

San Antonio @ Oklahoma City (+2.5)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston (+4.5)

Indiana @ Golden State (-3)

Boston @ Chicago (Postponed)

Truths to be self evident

Last night, the Raptors and Kings continued to show there is no such thing as easy money in Vegas.

Miami in Philadelphia play with depleted rosters in a game that could see a cancellation. The Sixers are on a back to back with Joel Embiid expected to play. The Denver Nuggets are in Brooklyn to face Kevin Durant without Kyrie Irving for at least three more games.

The Utah Jazz are in Cleveland in a game featuring a double digit spread and could continue to grow depending on Collin Sexton’s status. The Cavaliers continue to struggle scoring points.

Oklahoma City, winners of three straight, face San Antonio without DeMar DeRozen on the final game of a five game road trip while the Los Angeles Lakers matchup again with Fat James Harden and the Houston Rockets where the spread is deflating pending the status of LeBron James and Antonio Davis.

Finally, the Indiana Pacers complete their road trip on a back to back in the Bay Area against Steph Curry and company. Indiana is on a back to back and this spread expected further in the Warriors’ favor when Victor Oladipo’s status is confirmed.

The Computer

The computer, whom we respect, went 3-4 against the spread and 4-3 on over/unders. Predicting Toronto to cover was impressive and almost predicting a Toronto outright win. We give the computer bonus points for this and take away a bonus point for predicting Memphis and Cleveland to be in a NBA over.

Tonight, the computer likes underdogs Miami, Denver, Oklahoma City, and Houston to cover with Oklahoma City outright.

Let’s look deeper into the Oklahoma City pick. Two experts have gone on the record for Oklahoma City +2.5. 56% of the bets are on Oklahoma City with 83% of the money. The line moved briefly to +2, however, the line was quickly adjusted back to +2.5 indicating sharp action on both sides.

San Antonio is completing a five game road trip. They lost to Minnesota and scored just 88 points. Oklahoma City has won three straight and four out of five, all as underdogs because they get no respect. This game, with Miami v. Philadelphia, are tonight’s “easy money”.

The spread in the Utah game has grown to -12 with Andre Drummond questionable and Collin Sexton and Darius Garland not playing. Yet, the over/under in the game is increasing. The computer likes Utah by 16. Interestingly, just 46% of the bets are on Utah representing 94% of the money. The line indicates sharp action, moving from -9 to -12.

The contention is made NBA spreads are a popularity contest based on perception. Utah is the “easiest money” especially if Andre Drummond does not play. How can one disagree?

Tonight’s predictions

Cleveland +12, Cleveland outright

San Antonio -2.5

Miami +8

Houston +6

Brooklyn -1.5

Golden State -2