NBA Slate – January 18, 2021

January 18, 2021 | Posted in Sports | By

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Nine games scheduled

Orlando @ New York Knicks (+2)

Minnesota @ Atlanta (-8)

San Antonio @ Portland (+1.5)

Detroit @ Miami (-6)

Phoenix @ Memphis (+5.5)

Dallas @ Toronto (-5)

Milwaukee @ Brooklyn (+4)

Houston @ Chicago (+2.5)

Golden State @ Los Angeles Lakers (-8.5)

Truths to be self evident

The Orlando Magic should not be favored over anyone.

Bet Slip Knicks/Magic

I used an image because it makes the publisher’s website more legitimate. He’s the clown, not me.

Won on the Knicks yesterday too. Why? Contrarian. The Knicks were on a five game losing streak and lost to the lowly Cavaliers. The Celtics haven’t been playing, just one game since January 8th, where Boston prevailed by 27 over the Magic without Jayson Tatum.

Minnesota seemed a contrarian selection, however, they are terrible and Atlanta is currently undervalued because Rajon Rondo has not been available to run the second team. The Hawks made you sweat a bit but won by a comfortable 11 even with Trae Young just 3/8 from the field, 2/5 from three point range, twenty points, and having to sit with foul trouble.

Portland seemed a contrarian play … of course Portland will struggle without Nurkic and McCollum … and they did, losing by 19. Sometimes, exactly what is expected happens.

Nobody wins all their wagers.

Dallas/Toronto seems the weirdest spread of the night. Toronto shouldn’t be favored over anyone. Everyone likes Phoenix all the way to -5.5 sometimes there’s no reason to fade that action.

The heavy weight of the night, Milwaukee against Brooklyn, sees the spread moving in Milwaukee’s favor. No need to fade that action.

Detroit v. Miami is in jeopardy, still on as of this publishing. Houston faces Chicago in a team continuing to get no respect. Does Houston, a team who just dealt their best player and has a mountain of draft picks seem like a team suddenly winning all kinds of game on the road?

Finally, Steph Curry and company travel to Los Angeles to face the defending champion Lakers and LeBron James. The Lakers have been covering any number. When does this streak end?

The Computer

Over the past few days, the computer has crushed against the spread, going a ridiculous 13-5 and break even on over/unders. Perhaps a point has been reached where it is unwise to fade the computer but no one makes bets because the computer says. We use the data as a guide.

Today, the computer likes the underdog Knicks, Pistons, Dallas, Chicago, and Golden State to all cover with Chicago and the Knicks winning outright. The computer is already 3-0 on the day, correctly predicting the Knicks outright, and has hit on eight straight against the spread predictions and twelve of the last 14.

Was this a good opportunity to fade the computer in the Phoenix v. Memphis game?

Tonight’s predictions

Dallas +5, Dallas outright

Milwaukee -4

Chicago +2.5, Chicago outright

Los Angeles Lakers -8

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NBA Slate – January 14, 2021

January 14, 2021 | Posted in Sports | By

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Tonight’s games

The Sixers defeated the Miami Heat soundly, by 17, causing us to wonder why the spread dropped so rapidly in Miami’s favor going from -10 to as low as -7.5 right before tip off.

Charlotte lost by 3, easily covering, and the Rockets, 7.5 dogs to the San Antonio Spurs, won outright.

Why was this bet made? Contrarian principles are prevailing in COVID NBA basketball. Games are being canceled at a somewhat alarming rate. Of course Houston is going to lose by at least 8, they only have nine players available. Of Course the New York Knicks are a good bet, Brooklyn is on a back to back with eight available players because of the James Harden trade.

One is never correct all the time in this endeavor but Charlotte had every chance to win outright tonight against Toronto They got Killed on the offensive boards late in the game but they covered ten points. Why was this wager placed? Umm, I watch NBA basketball games. Toronto has two wins and they’re the worst closing team in the NBA. Of course Charlotte is going to lose by at least 11, Gordon Hayward is out and they’re still missing Cody Zeller. They’re on a back to back. the wager slip pictured above is contrarian and the Charlotte grouping produced a profit because less was wagered on the Moneyline.

And, my friend who let’s me go over to his house and watch NBA games and lets me publish on his site nobody reads, thank you. It’s nice to have friends like you and my words help make your site more legitimate especially when media is added and the post has at least 500 words.

Contrarian results

Read this post and scroll to the bottom for the predictions. overall, the picks went 3-3, with Miami and San Antonio being contrarian. This is the night eight Miami players took the Sixers to overtime and lost by three. The sharps loved Oklahoma City against San Antonio (no DeMar DeRozen.)

Read this post and scroll to the bottom for the predictions. The predictions went 0-3 that day as all the favorites covered. the sharps absolutely loved these teams and sometimes I don’t have a lot of reasons to fade the sharps when publishing a prediction.

Portland has cut Indiana’s once 25 point lead to 12 near the end of the third quarter. Could we see another COVID 30 point swing game and Portland cover three? How much exposure do these online sports books receive on a live bet for Portland which would have been sizable when they were down 25?

Can you really trust your sports book? What would you do if your sports book suddenly closed their doors and went out of business? I used these folks for years and never had a problem and they paid me my winnings every time. What more can you ask for from an online sports book?

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NBA Slate – January 13, 2021

January 13, 2021 | Posted in Sports | By

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Seven games scheduled

Three games canceled due to COVID protocols.

Milwaukee @ Detroit (+11)

Dallas @ Charlotte (+4)

Brooklyn @ New York (+6)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City (+8)

Memphis @ Minnesota (-2.5)

Portland @ Sacramento (+3.5)

New Orleans @ Los Angeles Clippers (-7)

Truths to be self evident

Last night, the Miami Heat continued to show there is no such thing as easy money in Vegas nearly winning outright with the league minimum eight players dressed.

Milwaukee plays in Detroit as double digit favorites and the spread continuing to grow. The Dallas Mavericks face the Charlotte Hornets who’ve won four straight and the Mavericks returning Kristaps Porzingis.

Brooklyn, on a back to back after winning outright against Denver last night, face the Knicks in a classic sell low buy high spot for the Knicks. Kevin Durant is not listed on the injury report but there is still no Kyrie Irving and this team misses Spencer Dinwiddie.

The Lakers are on a back to back in Oklahoma City with Anthony Davis questionable and Al Horford sitting as the Thunder are also on a back to back. Two of the worst teams in the NBA face off in Minnesota as Memphis eagerly awaits the return of Ja Morant with Karl Anthony-Townes questionable.

Portland travels to Sacramento in a game with high scoring expectations. Finally, the New Orleans Pelicans are in Los Angeles to face the Clippers in a game seeing Ivica Zubac and Eric Bledsoe questionable.

The computer

Last night, the computer went a paltry 1-5 against the spread and a meager 3-3 on over/unders. Tonight, the computer likes underdogs Charlotte, Memphis, New Orleans, and Sacramento to cover with Charlotte and Memphis winning outright.

The easiest money of the night appears to be Brooklyn -6 against the hapless Knicks mired in a scoring funk and the Lakers -8, even without Anthony Davis, against Oklahoma City without Al Horford. Oklahoma City is too dependent on Lu Dort scoring and LeBron James seems to will his team to victory night in and night out.

Tonight’s predictions

Charlotte +4

New York Knicks +6

Oklahoma City +8

There is too much excitement around Porzingis returning and he will most likely be limited in his minutes. Dallas is also missing some key players like Maxi Kleber, Jalen Brunson, Josh Richardson, and Dwight Powell.

The Knicks are in a buy low spot as we contend spreads are a popularity contest and Oklahoma City’s spread could grow depending on the status of Anthony Davis.

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NBA Slate – January 12, 2021

January 12, 2021 | Posted in Sports | By

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Six games scheduled

Today sees the third straight day with game cancellations because of COVID protocols.

Miami @ Philadelphia (-7)

Utah @ Cleveland (+10.5)

Denver @ Brooklyn (-1.5)

San Antonio @ Oklahoma City (+2.5)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston (+4.5)

Indiana @ Golden State (-3)

Boston @ Chicago (Postponed)

Truths to be self evident

Last night, the Raptors and Kings continued to show there is no such thing as easy money in Vegas.

Miami in Philadelphia play with depleted rosters in a game that could see a cancellation. The Sixers are on a back to back with Joel Embiid expected to play. The Denver Nuggets are in Brooklyn to face Kevin Durant without Kyrie Irving for at least three more games.

The Utah Jazz are in Cleveland in a game featuring a double digit spread and could continue to grow depending on Collin Sexton’s status. The Cavaliers continue to struggle scoring points.

Oklahoma City, winners of three straight, face San Antonio without DeMar DeRozen on the final game of a five game road trip while the Los Angeles Lakers matchup again with Fat James Harden and the Houston Rockets where the spread is deflating pending the status of LeBron James and Antonio Davis.

Finally, the Indiana Pacers complete their road trip on a back to back in the Bay Area against Steph Curry and company. Indiana is on a back to back and this spread expected further in the Warriors’ favor when Victor Oladipo’s status is confirmed.

The Computer

The computer, whom we respect, went 3-4 against the spread and 4-3 on over/unders. Predicting Toronto to cover was impressive and almost predicting a Toronto outright win. We give the computer bonus points for this and take away a bonus point for predicting Memphis and Cleveland to be in a NBA over.

Tonight, the computer likes underdogs Miami, Denver, Oklahoma City, and Houston to cover with Oklahoma City outright.

Let’s look deeper into the Oklahoma City pick. Two experts have gone on the record for Oklahoma City +2.5. 56% of the bets are on Oklahoma City with 83% of the money. The line moved briefly to +2, however, the line was quickly adjusted back to +2.5 indicating sharp action on both sides.

San Antonio is completing a five game road trip. They lost to Minnesota and scored just 88 points. Oklahoma City has won three straight and four out of five, all as underdogs because they get no respect. This game, with Miami v. Philadelphia, are tonight’s “easy money”.

The spread in the Utah game has grown to -12 with Andre Drummond questionable and Collin Sexton and Darius Garland not playing. Yet, the over/under in the game is increasing. The computer likes Utah by 16. Interestingly, just 46% of the bets are on Utah representing 94% of the money. The line indicates sharp action, moving from -9 to -12.

The contention is made NBA spreads are a popularity contest based on perception. Utah is the “easiest money” especially if Andre Drummond does not play. How can one disagree?

Tonight’s predictions

Cleveland +12, Cleveland outright

San Antonio -2.5

Miami +8

Houston +6

Brooklyn -1.5

Golden State -2

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NBA Slate – January 11, 2021

January 11, 2021 | Posted in Sports | By

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Eight games scheduled

Last night, the NBA canceled their first game and today sees a second game postponed because of COVID protocols.

Memphis @ Cleveland (+2)

Phoenix @ Washington (+6.5)

Milwaukee @ Orlando (+10)

New York Knicks @ Charlotte (-4.5)

Philadelphia @ Atlanta (-6.5)

Toronto @ Portland (-5)

Indiana @ Sacramento (+5.5)

New Orleans @ Dallas (PPD)

Truths to be self evident

Memphis travels to Cleveland in a game with a under/over of just 206 total points while Phoenix is in Washington to face the Wizards without Russell Westbrook for the next several days.

The Milwaukee Bucks are ten point favorites on the road against an Orlando team still without Evan Fournier and Markelle Fultz lost for the season with Giannis expected to play.

The Knicks, now playing like the Knicks struggling to score 100 points, face a Charlotte team who have won three straight with LaMelo Ball becoming the youngest player to record a triple double in NBA history.

The short handed Sixers face an equally short handed Hawks team who just aren’t the same team without Rajon Rondo running the second team. The Toronto Raptors are on a back to back, losing last night to Golden State, and are completing a four game west coast road trip in Portland against Dame and company.

Finally, the Indiana Pacers take on the Sacramento Kings who could be short handed without Buddy Hield and Richaun Holmes.

The Computer

The computer, whom we respect, went 4-3 against the spread last night and 4-3 on over/unders. Tonight, the computer likes underdogs Cleveland, Philadelphia, and Toronto to cover the spread with the Raptors winning outright.

Tonight’s picks

Philadelphia +6.5

Portland -5

Indiana -5.5

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NBA Slate – January 10, 2021

January 10, 2021 | Posted in Sports | By

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Eight games scheduled

Utah @ Detroit (+7.5)

Chicago @ Los Angeles Clippers (-11.5)

Oklahoma City @ Brooklyn (-9)

Denver at New York Knicks (+6.5)

Miami @ Boston (+6)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston (+3)

San Antonio @ Minnesota (+3.5)

Toronto @ Golden State (+3)

Truths to be self evident

Last night, the Philadelphia 76ers showed there’s no such thing as easy money in Vegas. The Nuggets were 13.5 favorites because the Sixers were missing half their team due to COVID protocols and the Nuggets failed to cover. There’s a reason Vegas sports books made a record $54 million dollars on a half billion dollars wagered on sporting events.

The Utah Jazz continue their road trip in Detroit where the spread continues to grow requiring Utah to cover more points. The Chicago Bulls, getting no respect, are double digit underdogs to the Los Angeles Clippers. Cleveland was a double digit underdog until Giannis was ruled out. Cleveland would have covered double digits as they lost by 10.

Oklahoma City, fresh off a win agains the Knicks, play Brooklyn expected to return Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. Irving doesn’t want to play without Durant because he has to work too hard. Irving showed in Boston he can’t carry the weight and obviously Irving isn’t even going to try. There will be times Brooklyn rests Durant and Irving because the rest together. This is when the Nets will have value.

Denver plays the Knicks who failed to cover the spread as a first time favorite this season against the Jazz in their last game. Miami and Boston have a rematch with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in question. Plus, Boston is still missing front court depth due to COVID protocols.

The Lakers play the Rockets and Fat James Harden with the spread hanging around three because LeBron James and Anthony Davis are questionable every game. San Antonio and Minnesota play on consecutive nights with last night seeing the return of Karl Anthony Townes. Will he rest on a back to back?

Finally, the Toronto Raptors, who finally won their second game, play in the bay against Steph Curry and company.

The Computer

The computer, whom we respect, went a paltry 1-7 against the spread but a dominating 6-2 on over/unders. Correctly predicting a Phoenix outright win carries weight outside the actuals. For example, there have been instances of the computer predicting the score of a NBA game. Far more instances of correctly predicting one team’s score. Instances of correctly predicting the total points in an NBA game. These instances add validity to the predictions.

Tonight’s predictions

Detroit +8, Detroit outright

Chicago +12.5, Chicago outright

Golden State +3, Golden State outright

These teams are getting no respect.

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