January 18, 2021 | Posted in: Publishing
Published for a friend
Nine games scheduled
Orlando @ New York Knicks (+2)
Minnesota @ Atlanta (-8)
San Antonio @ Portland (+1.5)
Detroit @ Miami (-6)
Phoenix @ Memphis (+5.5)
Dallas @ Toronto (-5)
Milwaukee @ Brooklyn (+4)
Houston @ Chicago (+2.5)
Golden State @ Los Angeles Lakers (-8.5)
Truths to be self evident
The Orlando Magic should not be favored over anyone.
I used an image because it makes the publisher’s website more legitimate. He’s the clown, not me.
Won on the Knicks yesterday too. Why? Contrarian. The Knicks were on a five game losing streak and lost to the lowly Cavaliers. The Celtics haven’t been playing, just one game since January 8th, where Boston prevailed by 27 over the Magic without Jayson Tatum.
Minnesota seemed a contrarian selection, however, they are terrible and Atlanta is currently undervalued because Rajon Rondo has not been available to run the second team. The Hawks made you sweat a bit but won by a comfortable 11 even with Trae Young just 3/8 from the field, 2/5 from three point range, twenty points, and having to sit with foul trouble.
Portland seemed a contrarian play … of course Portland will struggle without Nurkic and McCollum … and they did, losing by 19. Sometimes, exactly what is expected happens.
Nobody wins all their wagers.
Dallas/Toronto seems the weirdest spread of the night. Toronto shouldn’t be favored over anyone. Everyone likes Phoenix all the way to -5.5 sometimes there’s no reason to fade that action.
The heavy weight of the night, Milwaukee against Brooklyn, sees the spread moving in Milwaukee’s favor. No need to fade that action.
Detroit v. Miami is in jeopardy, still on as of this publishing. Houston faces Chicago in a team continuing to get no respect. Does Houston, a team who just dealt their best player and has a mountain of draft picks seem like a team suddenly winning all kinds of game on the road?
Finally, Steph Curry and company travel to Los Angeles to face the defending champion Lakers and LeBron James. The Lakers have been covering any number. When does this streak end?
Over the past few days, the computer has crushed against the spread, going a ridiculous 13-5 and break even on over/unders. Perhaps a point has been reached where it is unwise to fade the computer but no one makes bets because the computer says. We use the data as a guide.
Today, the computer likes the underdog Knicks, Pistons, Dallas, Chicago, and Golden State to all cover with Chicago and the Knicks winning outright. The computer is already 3-0 on the day, correctly predicting the Knicks outright, and has hit on eight straight against the spread predictions and twelve of the last 14.
Was this a good opportunity to fade the computer in the Phoenix v. Memphis game?
Dallas +5, Dallas outright
Chicago +2.5, Chicago outright
Los Angeles Lakers -8