September 15, 2022 | Posted in: NFL
This post shares five 2022 NFL picks against the spread in a super contest format comparable to the contest at Westgate in Las Vegas for week 2 of the 2022 NFL Season.
NFL Super Contest
Week 1 Results – 3-2
Season to Date – 3-2
A player makes five weekly picks against the spread and is awarded one point for being correct, a half point for tying, and zero points for being incorrect.
Cleveland -6 (at home against the New York Jets)
Week two in the world of sports gambling in the NFL is all about the public over reacting to the first week results and usually backing the 1-0 team against the 0-1 team. This philosophy aside, the Browns are coming off an emotional first week road win against Carolina featuring a 58 yard game winning field goal by Browns rookie kicker Cade York while the Jets were humbled at home 24-9 by the Baltimore Ravens. The Jets were seemingly effective against the run against Baltimore and while Browns QB Jacoby Brisset looked like the worst quarterback in the league, my cat doesn’t see how the Jets are going to keep this within a touchdown as long as Joe Flacco is the Jets’ starting quarterback
Atlanta +10.5 (at Los Angeles Rams)
A double digit spread is an over reaction to Week 1 of the 2022 NFL Season seeing the Rams getting throttled by Buffalo and Atlanta losing by a single point to a perceived superior New Orleans Saints team? My cat has an affection toward double digit spreads, especially with the hook. The look ahead on this line was Atlanta +13.5 and has been bet down by the public to Atlanta +10.5 based on over reacting to Week 1 driving the spread three full points. There is a precedence for good teams covering by double digit spreads and the Rams are a good team but the double digit spread with a hook was too appealing to pass.
Chicago +10 (at Green Bay)
Another over reaction from Week 1 of the 2022 NFL Season but a double digit point spread? Granted, Chicago played in atrocious weather conditions in their surprising upset of the San Francisco 49ers as touchdown underdogs, and, there is precedence for good teams covering (by double digits) following a loss but this is Week 2 and can we make judgements Green Bay is a good team This Season? Aaron Rodgers “owns” the Chicago Bears and Green Bay could be missing both tackles while Davante Adams was sorely missed while starring for Las Vegas in the first week. My cat says until we see Green Bay dominate a team by at least three possessions he’s going to try and capitalize on teams getting no respect. Expect Chicago to be motivated by Rodgers’ comments last season about “owning them his whole F’ing Life.”
Houston +10 (at Denver)
Denver, a good team coming off a loss, is Expected by the sharps to cover by more than 10 points because everyone is over reacting to Week 1. Losing in Seattle, Denver turned to ball over twice inside the opponent’s five yard line. A more realistic score on Monday Night Football in Seattle was Denver 26, Seattle 17. My cat says it’s a way too early double digit spread over reaction by the sharps and the public creating value at +10. Denver, Green Bay, and Los Angeles are expected to beat bad teams by at least ten points. Should we wait until we see it happen before believing what we saw in Week 1 does have precedence?
Minnesota +2.5 (at Philadelphia)
Week 2 does offer what are essentially pick ’em games each week with spreads inside three points. This week, Minnesota at Philadelphia, New England at Pittsburgh, Washington at Detroit, Carolina at NY Giants, and Tampa at New Orleans. 9% of all NFL games finish with a margin of victory of one or two points while nearly 30% of all games finish with a margin of victory of three or seven. Meaning, grabbing a spread inside of three on either side will result in a cover 91% of the time. One must simply pick the winning side. My cat liked Minnesota enough to throw a future to win the NFC Conference and appear in the Super Bowl and likes Minnesota in a road test early in the season.