This post shares five 2022 NFL picks against the spread in a super contest format comparable to the contest at Westgate in Las Vegas for week 2 of the 2022 NFL Season.
NFL Super Contest
Week 1 Results – 3-2
Season to Date – 3-2
A player makes five weekly picks against the spread and is awarded one point for being correct, a half point for tying, and zero points for being incorrect.
Cleveland -6 (at home against the New York Jets)
Week two in the world of sports gambling in the NFL is all about the public over reacting to the first week results and usually backing the 1-0 team against the 0-1 team. This philosophy aside, the Browns are coming off an emotional first week road win against Carolina featuring a 58 yard game winning field goal by Browns rookie kicker Cade York while the Jets were humbled at home 24-9 by the Baltimore Ravens. The Jets were seemingly effective against the run against Baltimore and while Browns QB Jacoby Brisset looked like the worst quarterback in the league, my cat doesn’t see how the Jets are going to keep this within a touchdown as long as Joe Flacco is the Jets’ starting quarterback
Atlanta +10.5 (at Los Angeles Rams)
A double digit spread is an over reaction to Week 1 of the 2022 NFL Season seeing the Rams getting throttled by Buffalo and Atlanta losing by a single point to a perceived superior New Orleans Saints team? My cat has an affection toward double digit spreads, especially with the hook. The look ahead on this line was Atlanta +13.5 and has been bet down by the public to Atlanta +10.5 based on over reacting to Week 1 driving the spread three full points. There is a precedence for good teams covering by double digit spreads and the Rams are a good team but the double digit spread with a hook was too appealing to pass.
Chicago +10 (at Green Bay)
Another over reaction from Week 1 of the 2022 NFL Season but a double digit point spread? Granted, Chicago played in atrocious weather conditions in their surprising upset of the San Francisco 49ers as touchdown underdogs, and, there is precedence for good teams covering (by double digits) following a loss but this is Week 2 and can we make judgements Green Bay is a good team This Season? Aaron Rodgers “owns” the Chicago Bears and Green Bay could be missing both tackles while Davante Adams was sorely missed while starring for Las Vegas in the first week. My cat says until we see Green Bay dominate a team by at least three possessions he’s going to try and capitalize on teams getting no respect. Expect Chicago to be motivated by Rodgers’ comments last season about “owning them his whole F’ing Life.”
Houston +10 (at Denver)
Denver, a good team coming off a loss, is Expected by the sharps to cover by more than 10 points because everyone is over reacting to Week 1. Losing in Seattle, Denver turned to ball over twice inside the opponent’s five yard line. A more realistic score on Monday Night Football in Seattle was Denver 26, Seattle 17. My cat says it’s a way too early double digit spread over reaction by the sharps and the public creating value at +10. Denver, Green Bay, and Los Angeles are expected to beat bad teams by at least ten points. Should we wait until we see it happen before believing what we saw in Week 1 does have precedence?
Minnesota +2.5 (at Philadelphia)
Week 2 does offer what are essentially pick ’em games each week with spreads inside three points. This week, Minnesota at Philadelphia, New England at Pittsburgh, Washington at Detroit, Carolina at NY Giants, and Tampa at New Orleans. 9% of all NFL games finish with a margin of victory of one or two points while nearly 30% of all games finish with a margin of victory of three or seven. Meaning, grabbing a spread inside of three on either side will result in a cover 91% of the time. One must simply pick the winning side. My cat liked Minnesota enough to throw a future to win the NFC Conference and appear in the Super Bowl and likes Minnesota in a road test early in the season.
This post shares five NFL picks against the spread in a super contest format comparable to the contest at Westgate.
NFL Super Contest
A player makes five weekly picks against the spread and is awarded one point for being correct, a half point for tying, and zero points for being incorrect. The world’s most prestigious contest is held at the Westgate in Las Vegas, Nevada so my cat, while not entering the contest himself, is going to make his picks against the spread for Week 1
Chicago +7 (at home against San Francisco)
We hold these truths to be self evident this is week 1 of the 2022 NFL Season, we know nothing, and everyone is making a bunch of assumptions. Chicago is a home NFL team getting 7 points and, apparently, George Kittle is “day to day” with a Groin Injury. We don’t know what to expect from Justin Fields or Trey Lance and with 67% of the bets on visiting San Francisco, Nick the Cat is going to take the home team +7 and contends a push in the world of NFL sports gambling, a push is a win.
Pittsburgh +6.5 (at Cincinnati)
My cat contends all the other Week 1 division games are hovering around three points while this game is offering +6.5. Cincinnati, coming off a shocking worst to first Super Bowl appearance in 2021, is a prime candidate for regression and, perhaps too publicly favored, creating value in the line. Why are all the other division games hovering around a spread of three while this division game is at 6.5? The Steelers are on the Hall of Fame replacement plan and starting Mitchell Trubisky. My cat contends the best thing for the Steelers will be benching Trubisky and going with Pickett to evaluate his skill set. Every game Pickett sits is one less game to evaluate him.
New England +3.5 (at Miami)
My cat contends a division game with a hook offers value. There’s too much Miami hype and New England is still the best coached team in the division and imagine year two growth for Mac Jones similar to Joe Burrow in his second year while coming off injury. Nick the Cat made division winner projections and if he’s going to be correct, and New England is going to win the AFC East, it starts right here. My cat will gladly take the hook on this division game and even sugared the money line.
Cleveland +2.5 (at Carolina)
Apparently, they’re calling it the “Baker Bowl”. My cat contends Mayfield is going to be such a try hard and with the Cleveland defense pressuring him into bad decisions, the result is going to be a road win for the DeShaun Watsonless Browns. Cleveland boasts the top offensive line in the NFL and two stud running backs in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Can Jacoby Brissett make the throws necessary to win the game? Six other NFL teams have the same question. This is the worst spread for an underdog but since my cat liked Cleveland on the money line, he likes them as a super contest pick if you were able to grab the spread at Cleveland +2.5.
Arizona +6 (at home against Kansas City)
Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City are always too heavily favored in my cat’s opinion and Arizona is projected as competitive in one of the best divisions in the NFL. The spread hovered around three but suddenly jumped to six and my cat saw value in fading the 2.5 to three point spread change. Again, we hold these truths to be self evident, this is Week 1 of the 2022 NFL Season and we are making a bunch of assumptions.
This post shares predictions on teams winning the NFC South, the NFC North, NFC East, AFC North, and the AFC East. These predictions were made by a cat.
Sports Gambling Coming to you Soon
Assuming you do not already live in a location with legalized sports gambling, our opinion is soon you will. It’s a multi-billion dollar industry with each new state, like Ohio, joining the ranks of other states legalizing sports betting, creating more square money for my cat to, perhaps, snatch up with his devastating cat stuff skills.
Apparently, Worst to First is a Thing in the NFL
Seventeen times in the last nineteen NFL Seasons, a team went from “worst to first” in the division and, somewhat surprisingly, won their division like the 2021 Cincinnati Bengals. The most recent example marked the eighth time in the past seven years a team finished in last place in their division the previous season and won their division the next season.
2022 Detroit Lions, NFC North, 10-1 odds
The Lions earned a following from Hard Knocks and no NFL franchise is more tortured. They last won a NFL Championship in 1958. The Lions last won a playoff game in 1991. The face of their franchise, Matthew Stafford, went to Los Angeles and won a Super Bowl. Their division foe, the Green Bay Packers, has Hall of Fame quarterback play for the past …. 30 Years … and the Lions lose, dramatically, in close games. Rodgers to Rodgers, The Calvin Johnson Rule, and Justin Tucker’s NFL record making 66 yard field goal.
Why can the Lions win the division? Green Bay regressing and Minnesota being, well, Minnesota, and underachieving, could open the door for a quietly solid offensive unit led by the strength of the Detroit offensive line. My cat says, in a clean pocket, with minimal pressure, Jared Goff is the best QB in the NFL. Amon-Ra St. Brown showed he can play and TJ Hockenson returns fully healthy along with newly acquired DJ Chark. Lewan playing left tackle with Sewell and right tackle with Ragnow returning at center fully healthy. My cat says this team was garbage last season and played close games, winning three, tying one (that’s soooo Lions) and if Aidan Hutchinson is defensive rookie player of the year, the Lions are going to be competitive in a division where 9-8 can finish in first place with tie breakers.
2022 Jacksonville Jaguars, AFC South, 7.5-1
My cat says Trevor Lawrence is the dude, Urban Meyer was a disaster, the offensive line is better, and Travis Etienne returns fully healthy. Jacksonville is another worst to first candidate in a division featuring a Tennessee team with too many question marks to prognosticate and Indianapolis as a heavy favorite featuring newly acquired Matt Ryan featuring a defensive unit and running back (Jonathan Taylor) likely to regress.
2022 New Orleans Saints, NFC South, 3-1
My cat says the vibes from Tampa are awful with the offensive line, the way Tom Brady looks, and an aura of Gisele not being pleased Brady decided to return for another season. Chris Godwin won’t return right away and Rob Gronkowski is staying retired. Defensively, Tampa appears elite but my cat doesn’t see the Saints defensive unit far behind led by Marshon Lattimore island. Jameis Winston is a gun slinger and people are forgetting last season, when Winston was healthy, the Saints were … good?, featuring a 38-3 shellacking of Aaron Rodgers? And, my cat says Tom Brady is too heavily favored by the public and there’s too much value in .25u at 3-1 someone besides Tampa is going to win the NFC South.
Atlana and Carolina could, somewhat surprisingly, be competitive enough to go 1-1 with Tampa and 1-1 against each other, creating another NFL division where 9-8 could indeed win the division. My cat says with the new 17 game schedule and the rising parity of the game will result in teams finishing 8-9 and winning their division. In the future, when the 12-5 Los Angeles Chargers go on the road to play 8-9 Cleveland in the wild card playoffs, the NFL will be forced to come up with something new.
2022 Washington Commanders, NFC East, 5-1
Despite Indianapolis melting down last season and missing the 2021 NFL Playoffs, Carson Wentz played all sixteen games for just the second time in his career. Now in Washington, a division featuring the public crazed Dallas Cowboys and “sexy favorite” and “most improved team” Philadelphia Eagles, Wentz has a chance to lead a team to the playoffs again in his career. Winning a playoff game is always another story.
Can the offensive line give Wentz the time? Are Washington’s downfield options competent? Chase Young will return at some point but how well will Washington defend the pass? With Dallas ready to implode, Michael Gallup won’t be ready early, Amari Cooper is gone, and their left tackle Tyron Smith will miss another season. I’d like to interject, independent of my cat’s predictions, Philadelphia winning this division with a 12-5 record will be no surprise. Philadelphia is going to run the ball in ways difficult to defend and Hurts could, potentially, make the throws he needs to make to win NFL games.
It’s as if Baltimore and Philadelphia are at war with the pass first three receiver set new NFL game we’ve been watching the past five years. Can the designed quarterback running plays be successful? Any NFL offensive scheme is completely disrupted with front four pressure especially up the middle. No team is more prepared to disrupt opposing offenses than the Washington Commanders.
2022 New England Patriots, AFC East, 5-1
The Buffalo Bills are the Super Bowl favorite at 6-1 and heavily favored to win the AFC East. In another NFL division featuring a heavy favorite, and a “trendy pick” in the Miami Dolphins, my cat sees value in .25u on the GrandMaster of Foxboro. This is a bet New England is the best coached team in the division. We will know so much more about this bet after Week 1 when Buffalo opens the season on the road against the defending champion Los Angeles Rams and New England travels to Miami to play the highly hyped Dolphins and their … and my cat cannot stop laughing … left handed quarterback.