September 22, 2022 | Posted in: NFL
This post shares five predictions against the spread in a super contest format for the third week of the 2022 NFL Season. A player receives one point for being correct, a half point for tying, and zero points for being wrong.
2022 NFL Super Contest
Season to Date – 5-5
On Sunday, double digit spreads went 2-1 with Houston covering +10 against the Denver Broncos and Atlanta rallying to cover +10.5 against the Los Angeles Rams. Cleveland -6.5 was a disappointment to lose but not as disappointing as the Browns losing the game, at home, against the Jets, giving up 14 points in the final two minutes losing the game 31-30.
Indianapolis +7 (at home against Kansas City)
After Dallas upset Cincinnati as touchdown home dogs in Week 2, and touchdown home dogs going 3-0 against the spread in Week 1, I was surprised to find yet another touchdown home dog in Indianapolis Week 3 against the always publicly favored Kansas City Chiefs. My cat sees value in the Colts after they were shut out on the road in Jacksonville Week 2 combined with the Colts being both 0-2 overall and 0-2 against the spread. Week 3 of any NFL Season is always “the kitchen sink week”, meaning 0-3 teams rarely make the playoffs in the traditional 16 game format and throw everything, including the kitchen sink, into winning Week 3 resulting in advantageous covering of the spreads. Indianapolis fits this profile and the spread has already moved to +5.5 since this super contest pick was entered.
Cincinnati -4.5 (at New York Jets)
Cincinnati fits the “kitchen sink” profile sitting at 0-2 and 0-2 against the spread, however, at the time of this publication, a massive 90% of the public is on the Bengals to cover five points leaving the author extremely nervous about the bet. The Jets rally aside, somehow resulting in an out right win despite trailing by 13 with 1:55 to play, this seems like a game where Cincinnati could get back on track offensively. The Jets were gashed for 184 yards and three touchdowns on the ground while Brissett was more than effective prior to the two minute meltdown. The Jets managed one sack and while Joe Burrow has already been sacked 13 times this season, the Bengals proved last year they can win playoff games when Burrow gets sacked nine times in a game. I see an offensive explosion by Cincinnati the Jets won’t be able to match.
Atlanta +2.5 (at Seattle)
While Atlanta doesn’t fit “the kitchen sink” model, despite being winless after two weeks, Atlanta did cover the spread in Week 2 against the Los Angeles Rams. I like this game because, similar to the Detroit Lions, who won outright in Week 2, Atlanta battled back to make the scoreboard respectable against the defending champions. The spread is already compressing, down to an essential pick ’em at Atlanta +.5, making the choice early in the week seemingly sharp. In Week 1, if Denver had not fumbled TWICE at the Seattle one yard line, Seattle would be staring at 0-2 with both losses by double digits. My cat likes Atlanta with an outright road win in this win.
Carolina +3 (at home against New Orleans)
Carolina fits the “kitchen sink” model standing at 0-2 overall and 0-2 against the spread. Baker Mayfield may statistically be the worst quarterback in the league after two weeks but Jameis Winston threw three interceptions Week 2, at home, against division rival Tampa in a game where tempers flared and suspensions were handed out. Plus, New Orleans is statically awful after playing Tampa the last few years and Carolina has two losses by a combined five points. Look for Christian McCaffrey to get on track and find the end zone more than once and look for this spread to move depending on the availability of Alvin Kamara for the Saints.
San Francisco -1.5 (at Denver)
Can Russ get cooking at home in Week 3? Why does my cat suddenly consider the 49ers to be legitimate Super Bowl Contenders with Jimmy G back at the helm after Trey Lance fractured his leg in a Week 2 win against Seattle. The weather in Week 1 during San Francisco’s loss in Chicago must be discounted when evaluating this team and while Houston’s defense showed promise tying Indianapolis Week 1 and holding Russ to 16 points (at home) in Week 2, my cat wants to know if you agree San Francisco’s defense could be on another level when it comes to talent at all three levels. Russ has to show he can cook in Denver while Jimmy G might just do things he learned sitting behind a hall of fame quarterback in New England for three years.