October 13, 2022 | Posted in: NFL

This post shares five picks against the spread for Week 6 of the 2022 NFL Season in a Super Contest format. Players receive one point for being correct, a half point for tying, and zero points for being incorrect.

2022 Super Contest

Week 5 Results – 5-0

Season To Date – 17-8

Publisher’s Note: Justification for Cleveland (+3) was never written. It’s an advantage of making the contest picks early in the week for publication purposes. By kickoff last Sunday, the Browns were +1 or +1.5 depending on your book resulting in a loss against the spread opposed to the win at the opening line of -3

Pittsburgh +9 (at home v. Tampa Bay)

Tom Brady is always a public favorite and after the drubbing Pittsburgh took at the hands of the Buffalo Bills 38-3 featuring rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett making his first NFL start. Flash forward a week and the Steelers are a home NFL team getting nine points and this is a buy low opportunity. 65% of the money is on the Buccaneers and the spread has compressed to +8.5 indicating the involvement of sharp money.

New York Jets +7 (at Green Bay)

Does Green Bay seem like the kind of team beating anyone by more than a touchdown or does Green Bay seem like the kind of team losing to both New York teams in back to back weeks? I call this the Jets aren’t getting any respect line and my cat says while Green Bay’s defense is stout, the three touchdowns the Jets put up in Week 5 against the Miami Dolphins could be indicative of things to come. My cat decided to sugar the money line +275 because it is, perhaps, out with the old (Aaron Rodgers) and in with the new .. as in the New York teams owning Rodgers in back to back weeks.

New Orleans +2.5 (at home v Cincinnati)

This is a fade of the public with 81% of the money on the Bengals. We don’t know who is playing quarterback but this is an offense putting up 39 points last week and we do believe in Marshon Lattimore island. This is a difficult bet to make as we’ve been correct and won money on Cincinnati the past three weeks starting with “kitchen sink” week Cincinnati covered -4.5 as an 0-2 team. Now, the Bengals have covered three straight but the percentage of the public makes Cincinnati a square bet this week.

Jacksonville +2 (at Indianapolis)

Underdogs of less than three points are winning outright 56% of the time. Just four weeks ago, Jacksonville annihilated Indianapolis 24-0 when the Colts had Jonathan Taylor healthy. Now, Taylor missed last week and could miss this week as well. Jacksonville has lost two straight, including a surprising loss to the Texans 13-6 in Week 5. This doesn’t seem to bother the public as 63% of the money is on the Jaguars. A future bet was placed on the Jaguars to win the AFC South and if the future is going to come to fruition, an outright Jacksonville win and a sweep of the division favorite will help tremendously.

Carolina +11 (at Los Angeles Rams)

Do the Rams seem like a team beating anyone by 12 points? Baker Mayfield is injured again meaning PJ Walker will once take the helm for the Panthers on the road against the defending champs. My cat has more faith in Walker than Mayfield and this spread has already compressed to Carolina +10. We had to buy a half point to get the spread at 11 breaking a cardinal rule of not buying points.