Week 9 Westgate Super Contest Picks

November 3, 2022 | Posted in NFL | By

This post shares five predictions against the spread for Week 9 of the 2022 NFL Season in a Super Contest format. Players are awarded one point for being correct, a half point for tying, and zero points for being incorrect.

2022 NFL Season Super Contest

Week 8 Results – 3-2

Season to Date – 24-16

Houston +14 (at home v. Philadelphia)

Okay, this is a home NFL team being spotted two touchdowns. Sure, Houston was steam rolled by Derrick Henry last week but, Houston only gave up 17 points. Is Philadelphia going undefeated this season? We even threw a .1u at Houston +500 on the ML because my cat had a vision of the masses being Eliminated in Survivor.

Las Vegas -1.5 (at Jacksonville)

Buying Vegas at their lowest possible value after being shut out on the road last week. My cat says the data suggests teams on the Sunday after London are to perhaps be faded.

Carolina +7.5 (at Cincinnati)

Simply fading Cincinnati until Ja’Marr Chase returns.

Tennessee +13 (at Kansas City)

Fading Mahomes is a positive net return this season and this bet really hopes Ryan Tannehill plays. This seems like a classic Vrabel under dog game and we’ll probably, again, throw money at the ML.

Detroit +3.5 (at Green Bay)

Our favorite spread in a division game.

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Week 7 Westgate Super Contest Picks

October 23, 2022 | Posted in NFL | By

This post shares five picks against the spread for Week 7 of the 2022 NFL Season in a Super Contest format. Players receive one point for being correct, a half point for tying, and zero points for being incorrect.

2022 Super Contest

Week 6 Results – 2-3

Season To Date – 19-11

Baltimore -6.5 (at home v. Cleveland)

This is a bet Lamar Jackson scores 45 fantasy points. Cleveland ranks in the bottom ten against the run giving up 131.5 yards per game improving against in their Week 6 shellacking at the hands of the New Englands Patriots where a rookie quarterback threw for 309 yards with two touchdowns and was only sacked twice. My cat, in essence, is buying Baltimore low after their loss in Week 6 to the New York football Giants seeing Baltimore blow a ten point fourth quarter lead with a horrible interception allowing the Giants to win.

Detroit +7 (at Dallas)

Somehow, my cat contends, the return of Dak Prescott, perhaps too early, creates the opportunity for Detroit to win outright in Dallas coming off a bye. Detroit is subject to recency bias after being shutout in New England 29-0 in Week 5. Prior, in the first four weeks of the season, Detroit was the top scoring offense in the NFL coupled with the worst defense and dealing with injuries to key play makers like D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown is off the injury report this week and Swift is listed as questionable.

Tennessee -2.5 (at home v. Indianapolis)

Las Vegas -7 (at home v. Houston)

New York Jets +3.5 (at Denver)

Nobody in West Gate is getting the Jets +3.5 as this line was purchased prior to the Jets winning outright in Green Bay 27-10 in Week 6. New York +3 was a possibility and we’ll call this a push if the Jets lose by a field goal for publication purposes yet enjoy cashing our ticket because this line currently sits at New York -1.5 creating five points of value in this spread.

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Week 6 Westgate Super Contest Picks

October 13, 2022 | Posted in NFL | By

This post shares five picks against the spread for Week 6 of the 2022 NFL Season in a Super Contest format. Players receive one point for being correct, a half point for tying, and zero points for being incorrect.

2022 Super Contest

Week 5 Results – 5-0

Season To Date – 17-8

Publisher’s Note: Justification for Cleveland (+3) was never written. It’s an advantage of making the contest picks early in the week for publication purposes. By kickoff last Sunday, the Browns were +1 or +1.5 depending on your book resulting in a loss against the spread opposed to the win at the opening line of -3

Pittsburgh +9 (at home v. Tampa Bay)

Tom Brady is always a public favorite and after the drubbing Pittsburgh took at the hands of the Buffalo Bills 38-3 featuring rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett making his first NFL start. Flash forward a week and the Steelers are a home NFL team getting nine points and this is a buy low opportunity. 65% of the money is on the Buccaneers and the spread has compressed to +8.5 indicating the involvement of sharp money.

New York Jets +7 (at Green Bay)

Does Green Bay seem like the kind of team beating anyone by more than a touchdown or does Green Bay seem like the kind of team losing to both New York teams in back to back weeks? I call this the Jets aren’t getting any respect line and my cat says while Green Bay’s defense is stout, the three touchdowns the Jets put up in Week 5 against the Miami Dolphins could be indicative of things to come. My cat decided to sugar the money line +275 because it is, perhaps, out with the old (Aaron Rodgers) and in with the new .. as in the New York teams owning Rodgers in back to back weeks.

New Orleans +2.5 (at home v Cincinnati)

This is a fade of the public with 81% of the money on the Bengals. We don’t know who is playing quarterback but this is an offense putting up 39 points last week and we do believe in Marshon Lattimore island. This is a difficult bet to make as we’ve been correct and won money on Cincinnati the past three weeks starting with “kitchen sink” week Cincinnati covered -4.5 as an 0-2 team. Now, the Bengals have covered three straight but the percentage of the public makes Cincinnati a square bet this week.

Jacksonville +2 (at Indianapolis)

Underdogs of less than three points are winning outright 56% of the time. Just four weeks ago, Jacksonville annihilated Indianapolis 24-0 when the Colts had Jonathan Taylor healthy. Now, Taylor missed last week and could miss this week as well. Jacksonville has lost two straight, including a surprising loss to the Texans 13-6 in Week 5. This doesn’t seem to bother the public as 63% of the money is on the Jaguars. A future bet was placed on the Jaguars to win the AFC South and if the future is going to come to fruition, an outright Jacksonville win and a sweep of the division favorite will help tremendously.

Carolina +11 (at Los Angeles Rams)

Do the Rams seem like a team beating anyone by 12 points? Baker Mayfield is injured again meaning PJ Walker will once take the helm for the Panthers on the road against the defending champs. My cat has more faith in Walker than Mayfield and this spread has already compressed to Carolina +10. We had to buy a half point to get the spread at 11 breaking a cardinal rule of not buying points.

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Week 5 Westgate Super Contest Picks

October 5, 2022 | Posted in NFL | By

This post shares five picks against the spread for Week 5 of the 2022 NFL Season in a Super Contest format. A player receives one point for being correct, a half point for tying, and zero points for being incorrect.

2022 NFL Super Contest

Week 4 Results – 3-2

Publisher’s Note: New Orleans vs. Minnesota (in London) closed at New Orleans +3.5. The published Super Contest pick in Week 4 was New Orleans +3, however, the Westgate Contest entry would have been +3.5 so we are counting this as a win opposed to a push.

Season to Date – 12-8

Indianapolis +3.5 (at Denver)

My cat normally does not like to use Thursday night as a Super Contest selection but sees value in this line for a few reasons. Indianapolis lost last week to Tennessee, Jonathan Taylor might not play, and stud line backer Darius Shaquille Leonard is out. However, Russell Wilson is also a bit banged up and the Broncos defense placed Randy Gregory on injured reserve plus running back Javonte Williams will miss the rest of the season. 15% of NFL games end with a three point differential. Prime time games are under the total (42 in this game) at a ridiculous rate the first four weeks of the NFL Season. A potentially close game and low scoring affair my cat will take three points and the hook.

Houston +7.5 (at Jacksonville)

My cat sees this as a division games with four weeks of film and has a philosophy division games are, potentially, one score games. Jacksonville remains over valued after shellacking the Chargers on the road 38-10 in Week 3 and hanging tough on the road against the Eagles, who have the look of the best team in the NFL, in Week 4 losing 29-21. 70% of the bets are on Jacksonville creating further value in the line and the line has moved to +7 making my cat feel slightly sharp. Houston has the look of a team 4-1 against the spread after five weeks.

New York Jets +3.5 (at home against Miami)

Miami will be without quarterback Tua and a ridiculous 80% of the bets are on Miami. The spread has already moved to Jets +3 leaving my cat, once again, feeling slightly sharp. Another division game with a philosophy division games with four weeks on film are potentially one score games with the book makers predicting a close game and we have the hook. All Teddy Bridgewater does is cover spreads and he is right handed but even Miami -3 is a total square bet at this point.

Las Vegas +7.5 (at Kansas City)

My cat sees this as another division game with division games perhaps being one score games. Fading Patrick Mahomes, because he’s such a heavy public favorite, has produced a 2-2 record against the spread and my cat is going to fade Mahomes again in Week 5 on Monday Night Football. Vegas was finally able to produce their first win of the 2022 NFL Season and their first win against the spread against Denver in Week 4. Josh Jacobs is returning to a bell cow back for the Raiders and this could finally be the week Davante Adams and Derek Carr get their connection going. A ridiculous 81% of the bets are on Kansas City creating further value in the line.

Cleveland +3 (at home vs. Los Angeles Chargers)

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Week 4 NFL Super Contest Picks

September 29, 2022 | Posted in NFL | By

This post makes five picks against the spread for Week 4 of the 2022 NFL Season in a Super Contest format. A player receives one point for being correct, a half point for tying and zero points for being incorrect.

2022 NFL Super Contest

Week 3 Results – 4-1

Season to Date – 9-6

This past Sunday, in Week 3, the predictions were perfect heading into Sunday Night Football featuring San Francisco at Denver. San Francisco lost 11-10, a total baseball score, costing the predictions a perfect week. Atlanta and Carolina winning outright gave more precedence to the “kitchen sink” week of 0-2 teams who are also 0-2 against the spread both covering the spread and winning outright.

Cleveland -1.5 (at Atlanta)

Atlanta is coming off a road win in Seattle against what could be the worst team in the NFL while Cleveland is coming off a twelve point division win this past Thursday and has ten days of preparation time. Myles Garrett was involved in a car accident and might not play but my cat doesn’t see how Atlanta will stop the run and Browns quarterback Jacoby Brissett is playing average enough for the Browns to win this game by at least a field goal.

New Orleans +3 (vs. Minnesota in London)

This is a buy low sell kinda high opportunity as New Orleans looked awful in losing to Carolina Week 3 while Minnesota rallied from down ten points in the fourth quarter to win at home against division rival Detroit. London games are difficult to handicap as there is no home field advantage. The London crowd, in my cat’s opinion, should favor New Orleans as their super bowl win some years ago was right on the cusp of the NFL becoming a truly global game.

Los Angeles Chargers -5 (at Houston)

Houston has been scrappy this season going 2-0-1 against the spread in 2022 while the Chargers offer a classic buy low situation after getting lambasted by the Jacksonville Jaguars at home 38-10. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has another week to heal his broken rib cartilage and we have yet to see a good game from Austin Ekeler. There’s value in this line with all the Charger injuries.

Denver +2.5 (at Las Vegas)

Week 3 of the 2022 NFL Season offered “kitchen sink” games and my cat contends there are “kitchen sink” opportunities in Week 4 with the advent of the 18 week NFL Season. Las Vegas sits at 0-3 overall and 0-3 against the spread. However, my cat doesn’t think anyone can back this Vegas team especially with Russell Wilson finding his groove this past Sunday night against the 49ers on the last drive in what was a vintage Russ game winning drive in the fourth quarter.

Tennessee +3.5 (at Indianapolis)

My cat thinks this is a classic Mike Vrabel underdog situation especially with Indianapolis being over valued after defeating Kansas City outright as seven point underdogs even though the spread compressed before Indianapolis’ game against the Chiefs to +5. Mahomes is always a heavy public favorite and this translates into value in the Tennessee spread. This is a division game my cat sees a field goal either way and we have the hook.

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Week 3 NFL Super Contest Picks

September 22, 2022 | Posted in NFL | By

This post shares five predictions against the spread in a super contest format for the third week of the 2022 NFL Season. A player receives one point for being correct, a half point for tying, and zero points for being wrong.

2022 NFL Super Contest

Week 2 Results – 2-3

Season to Date – 5-5

On Sunday, double digit spreads went 2-1 with Houston covering +10 against the Denver Broncos and Atlanta rallying to cover +10.5 against the Los Angeles Rams. Cleveland -6.5 was a disappointment to lose but not as disappointing as the Browns losing the game, at home, against the Jets, giving up 14 points in the final two minutes losing the game 31-30.

Indianapolis +7 (at home against Kansas City)

After Dallas upset Cincinnati as touchdown home dogs in Week 2, and touchdown home dogs going 3-0 against the spread in Week 1, I was surprised to find yet another touchdown home dog in Indianapolis Week 3 against the always publicly favored Kansas City Chiefs. My cat sees value in the Colts after they were shut out on the road in Jacksonville Week 2 combined with the Colts being both 0-2 overall and 0-2 against the spread. Week 3 of any NFL Season is always “the kitchen sink week”, meaning 0-3 teams rarely make the playoffs in the traditional 16 game format and throw everything, including the kitchen sink, into winning Week 3 resulting in advantageous covering of the spreads. Indianapolis fits this profile and the spread has already moved to +5.5 since this super contest pick was entered.

Cincinnati -4.5 (at New York Jets)

Cincinnati fits the “kitchen sink” profile sitting at 0-2 and 0-2 against the spread, however, at the time of this publication, a massive 90% of the public is on the Bengals to cover five points leaving the author extremely nervous about the bet. The Jets rally aside, somehow resulting in an out right win despite trailing by 13 with 1:55 to play, this seems like a game where Cincinnati could get back on track offensively. The Jets were gashed for 184 yards and three touchdowns on the ground while Brissett was more than effective prior to the two minute meltdown. The Jets managed one sack and while Joe Burrow has already been sacked 13 times this season, the Bengals proved last year they can win playoff games when Burrow gets sacked nine times in a game. I see an offensive explosion by Cincinnati the Jets won’t be able to match.

Atlanta +2.5 (at Seattle)

While Atlanta doesn’t fit “the kitchen sink” model, despite being winless after two weeks, Atlanta did cover the spread in Week 2 against the Los Angeles Rams. I like this game because, similar to the Detroit Lions, who won outright in Week 2, Atlanta battled back to make the scoreboard respectable against the defending champions. The spread is already compressing, down to an essential pick ’em at Atlanta +.5, making the choice early in the week seemingly sharp. In Week 1, if Denver had not fumbled TWICE at the Seattle one yard line, Seattle would be staring at 0-2 with both losses by double digits. My cat likes Atlanta with an outright road win in this win.

Carolina +3 (at home against New Orleans)

Carolina fits the “kitchen sink” model standing at 0-2 overall and 0-2 against the spread. Baker Mayfield may statistically be the worst quarterback in the league after two weeks but Jameis Winston threw three interceptions Week 2, at home, against division rival Tampa in a game where tempers flared and suspensions were handed out. Plus, New Orleans is statically awful after playing Tampa the last few years and Carolina has two losses by a combined five points. Look for Christian McCaffrey to get on track and find the end zone more than once and look for this spread to move depending on the availability of Alvin Kamara for the Saints.

San Francisco -1.5 (at Denver)

Can Russ get cooking at home in Week 3? Why does my cat suddenly consider the 49ers to be legitimate Super Bowl Contenders with Jimmy G back at the helm after Trey Lance fractured his leg in a Week 2 win against Seattle. The weather in Week 1 during San Francisco’s loss in Chicago must be discounted when evaluating this team and while Houston’s defense showed promise tying Indianapolis Week 1 and holding Russ to 16 points (at home) in Week 2, my cat wants to know if you agree San Francisco’s defense could be on another level when it comes to talent at all three levels. Russ has to show he can cook in Denver while Jimmy G might just do things he learned sitting behind a hall of fame quarterback in New England for three years.

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