Anonymous

2020 NFL Week 4 – COVID Edition

October 3, 2020 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous

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Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season has been adversely impacted by COVID with the cancellation of the Steelers and Tennessee Titans. Additionally, the NFL has tentatively moved New England and Kansas City to Tuesday, as quarterback Cam Newton tested positive for COVID. We should consider ourselves lucky any of this is even happening because America needs the distraction of the NFL and fantasy football.

The thirst for content, any content, on any kind of projections for NFL games is insatiable. The sports betting explosion drives this thirst independent of fantasy football.

Cleveland at Dallas (-3.5)

As of Saturday night, there was apparently a steam move on Cleveland compressing the line from Dallas -4.5 to the current line. Tedious searches revealed little news to drive this line compression.

There’s data to support fading a steam move. 20 years of data suggest fading the Cleveland Browns. Sure, they won by ten points against a Washington Football Team decimated on the defensive line by injury and few options on offense. Washington was competitive in their 34-24 defeat this past week until the offense imploded on itself and Cleveland was able to put the game away running the ball, again.

Dallas, meanwhile, should be 0-3 and have failed to cover the spread in 2020. The public is heavy on Dallas with 68% of the bets representing 88% of the money. And the line is compressing, usually an indicator of heavy action on the Browns.

Does anyone foresee Cleveland matching Dallas in a shootout? Ezekiel Elliott should have his way with Cleveland, Dak Prescott will not make Dwayne Haskins mistakes, and Baker Mayfield can be counted on for an untimely turnover or two.

Dallas 38, Cleveland 27. Over 56.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati (-3)

The betting public has a short memory. They simply remember Jacksonville getting destroyed by Miami 31-13 nine days ago. Jacksonville will be returning wide receiver DJ Chark which should help quarterback Gardner Minshew.

Cincinnati is weak at linebacker with tight end Tyler Eifert being a good second option for Minshew. Cleveland and Philadelphia rushed for a combined 395 yards against Cincinnati Week 2 and Week 3. The public has a short memory on Jaguars’ running back James Robinson because he played ten days ago, rushing for 46 yards on 11 carries with two touchdowns. Game flow dictated Robinson’s quiet day.

James Robinson is unstoppable and Minshew Mania rolls, despite Burrow better with every rep.

Jacksonville 27, Cincinnati 24. Over 49

Seattle at Miami (+6.5)

Here’s a case where the betting public has a long memory. They remember Miami winning convincingly nine days ago. The betting public remembers Seattle giving up monstrous yardage and points, especially through the air. And, Seattle will be missing key pieces in a secondary getting absolutely bombed the first three weeks, notably safety Jamal Adams, acquired for a ludicrous two first round draft picks.

Russell Wilson is the MVP of the first three games. Cornerback Byron Jones is listed as doubtful and while Xavien Howard is an outstanding corner, DK Metcalf and Wilson and Company shredded Stephone Gilmore and Bill Belichick’s secondary.

The “West Coast Team” playing “East Coast 1pm” game and some kind of biorhythmic disadvantage? You bet your money on hocus pocus.

Russell Wilson rolls with the danger of a backdoor cover.

Seattle 34, Miami 24. Over 54.5.

April 9, 2020 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous

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Published on behalf of a friend

Hello Brother, some time ago you were told history shall know you as Matthew the Doubter. We, being a collective of intellectuals led by me, Brother Nehemiah, contend this blog post fulfills a prophecy because given an appropriate amount of time with the proper tags when someone uses google with the search term Matthew the Doubter, this blog post will appear before thine eyes to read if they so choose. For art Brother Nehemiah a prophet?

The book, the Gospels, the cross, the son, Him … these are all important aspects of our movement, however, humans on earth have been searching for answers through Him for the past two thousand years and here we are today. The truth of one God was never meant to be so decisive. The splintering of Christianity into a thousand thousand thousand sects over disagreements about the New Testament is a tragic outcome in trying to help humans on earth worship one God. The time for searching for answers through Him must be put aside in an attempt to find answers through Her.

Mother. The Church has a problem because they propagated the unnatural. How is there a Son with no Mother? Mother, the Mother of planets suitable for human life, was Excluded from the history books. What, you don’t think God took a wife? You don’t think God took many wives, metaphorically speaking, because planets with the right “atmosphere” for human life to procreate are Scarce in the universe He created with the snap of his fingers.

God snapped his fingers and created the entire Universe. However, the Creator was then bound by the laws He created with the snap of his fingers. Sure, God can intervene because he’s the creator, and he has, with the story told in the second book of Moses. However, God’s mantra is He would rather you, as humans on earth, figure things out for yourselves.

Her time. Mother Earth. Her creatures. Her trees. Her mountains, rivers, and lakes. Her oceans. Her deserts. Her forests. All with a star at the right proximity to the planet for human life to flourish. Perhaps humans on earth forgot to worship their star.

During the day, on your island, when you’re standing in the starlight warming your body, mind, spirit, and soul, worship Her. Worship our star because humans basking in warm starlight is a rarity in our universe.

A blog post, for legitimacy, should be 500 words. You’re to preach a new gospel. Her gospel. Your expertise on the original gospels and the son, perhaps the book in it’s entirety, makes you the lynch pin of the disciples. We worship God, appreciate the teachings of the son but Salvation is an inside job. One can find Salvation through God and his wife, the Mother of Planets suitable or human life. 473 words.

The pandemic broke mother’s fever. And relax, population control through pestilence has been done time and time again throughout the universe for it is Her time. Our mother wages war against an invasive species worshipping false idols.

September 26, 2019 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous

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We have enjoyed three cash finishes in our first year of Draft Kings and are hoping Week 4 Sunday Classic gives us our first monumental cash finish of the season.

Mahomes is a God

Mahomes is on pace for 6,300 yards and 53 touchdown passes through three games on the season. One can only hope to contain him and what’s scary is all this madness with the yardage and touchdowns being accomplished with Tyreek Hill on the sidelines with a weird collarbone injury.

Week 4 finds Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs traveling to Detroit facing a surprisingly undefeated Lions squad. Detroit ranks just 22nd against the pass through games surrendering 269.3 yards per game. We look for Mahomes to be Mahomes and score 30+ fantasy points

Value at Running Back

The Detroit/Kansas City game has the highest over/under of any weekend game, standing currently at 55. Kansas City ranks 26th against the run surrendering a paltry 137.7 yards per contest on the ground. We look for Kerryon Johnson to be utilized heavily in this game.

Marlon Mack faces an Oakland defense ranked 19th against the run giving up 119 yards on the ground per game. Mack is ranked highly by most prognosticators and the game sits at 45 over/under.

More Value at Wide Receiver

We’re going with Kenny Golladay in the highest over/under game of the week hoping he bounces back after flopping in Week 3 with high expectations.

We’re going to be watching Julian Edelman’s status for Sunday’s game. Edelman has been limited all week, amazing his teammates, and he’s just the kind of guy to tough through this injury because he’s a man’s man.

Rookie Terry McLaurin is becoming Case Keenum’s favorite target playing for a team throwing the ball due to second half deficits. The New York Football Giants rank 31st agains the pass surrendering a ridiculous 460.3 yards per contest. We and the prognosticators like McLaurin to continue his hot start.

Top Dollar at Tight End

We’re going with Travis Kelce, paying top dollar for Mahomes favorite target. We’re adding Kansas City’s big play threat, rookie Mecole Hardman, stepping into the Tyreek Hill role and look for him to continue his big play capability.

Los Angeles Rams Defense

Tampa’s offensive line is porous, Tampa is traveling out west, Aaron Donald got his first sack last week, and Famous Jameis is well overdue for a pick six.

September 25, 2019 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous

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After a cash finish in Monday Night’s Week 3 Showdown, we are excited to enter this team in Thursday Night’s game where the Eagles of Philadelphia travel to the Packers of Green Bay where perhaps the Packers will prevail by kicking an oblong ball made of pigskin through a big H.

Who else but Rodgers as Captain?

Aaron Rodgers is a Hall of Famer playing at home on a short week against an Eagles team struggling against the pass. After three weeks, the Eagles rank 29th against pass giving up 293.7 yards per game and allowing 2.33 touchdown passes per game.

Nelson Agholor will o/u 2.5 drops

Green Bay is playing stellar defense ranking fifth against the pass surrendering just 192.7 yards per contest and has allowed just one passing touchdown on the season. Our expectation is these numbers are skewed on the low end and Wentz could have a decent night.

DeSean Jackson remains on the sidelines with an abdominal injury and while Alshon Jeffrey “could play” Thursday Night, we like Agholor to once again dominate target shares as he produced eight catches on 12 targets in the Eagles’ Week 3 loss to the Lions.

GB pass catchers galore

We’re paying top price for DaVante Adams and adding Marquez Valdes-Scantling as he dominated the target share in Week 3 against the Lions totaling six grabs on ten targets for 99 yards and a touchdown.

Detroit’s Big Play Darius Slay covered Adams well in week 3 as Adams caught all four of his targets for 56 yards.

Will Packers D continue hot start?

Team defenses are always a decent play in Showdown as the prices allow for more high priced stars like Adams and making Rodgers captain. Green Bay sacked Joe Flacco six times in Week 3 while Wentz was sacked three times by a surprisingly undefeated Lions team. We like the sacks to fall somewhere in the middle in Thursday’s contest and maybe Green Bay scores on defense or special teams.

Mack Hollins a decent play?

With DeSean Jackson out with injury, Hollins saw seven targets in Week 3, producing four catches for 62 yards. At $2,400 for Thursday’s contest, Hollins offers decent value.

September 18, 2019 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous

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After another cash finish in Monday Night’s Showdown featuring the Cleveland Browns throttling of the hapless New York Jets, we are excited to enter this line-up for Thursday Night’s game featuring the Tennessee Titans traveling to Jacksonville to play the 0-2 Jaguars.

Titans defense as our Captain

After two weeks, Tennessee ranks 11th overall in total defense by yards allowed while giving up 16 points per game. The Titans are particularly stout against the pass, ranking second overall while allowing 182.5 passing yards a game. Tennessee is more susceptible to the run, ranking 26th overall, giving up nearly 135 yards per game.

Running backs reign supreme

Thursday night games are traditionally sloppy, especially early in the season and we expect both Derrick Henry and Leonard Fournette to be featured in heavy volume. Jacksonville ranks 17th agains the run, surrendering nearly 120 yards per game.

Mariota a decent night?

We’re going with Marcus Mariota as our only quarterback as Jacksonville ranks 19th against the pass surrounding 257.5 yards per contest without an interception on the season. Mariota was effective Week 2 against Indianapolis, throwing for 154 yards with one touchdown while completing 19/28 passes and a rating of 93.5.

Delanie Walker an early stud

Walker has been particularly effective in the first two weeks and is Mariota’s favorite option in the passing game. Walker has nine catches for 94 yards and a two touchdowns on the season.

Cairo Santos the final slot

The kicker prices allow for higher priced options in the other five slots. We’ll go with Santos to kick a couple field goals in what should be a low scoring affair.

September 14, 2019 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous

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Los Angeles Rams Stack

In a rematch of the 2018 NFC Championship game, the New Orleans Saints travel to Los Angeles to face Jared Goff and the Rams. The o/u sits at 52 and after New Orleans surrendered 28 points to Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans in a thrilling 30-28 win Week 1, this game has all the makings of a shootout.

Devin Singletary, Alvin Kamara

We’re going to spend the big bucks on Kamara ($8200) after Christian McCaffrey gashed the Rams for 209 all purpose yards and two touchdowns. Kamara was held out of the end zone in Week 1 so we like his chances to score multiple times in a high scoring affair against the Rams.

Singletary produced 98 total yards on 9 touches, including five catches. While future Hall of Fame back Frank Gore is technically the “starter”, Singletary is the more talented player and could thrive as a stingy Buffalo defense could mean a low score for the Giants and multiple running opportunities late in the game.

Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods

Kupp ($6,000) and Woods ($6,400) combined for 23 targets Week 1 in the Rams’ 30-27 win over Carolina. Cooks managed six targets so we’re going with the odds the duo dominates the target share for a second straight week.

Tyrell Williams, Darren Waller

Oakland, minus Antonio Brown and his dramatics, defeated the Denver Broncos 24-16 Week 1 in the last Monday Night game ever at Oakland Coliseum. Williams ($4,400) grabbed six of seven targets for 105 yards and a touchdown while Waller ($3,300) saw eight targets with seven receptions for 70 yards.

The Raiders, again at home, face the high octane Kansas Chiefs’ offense with the o/u string at an astounding 53.5. The fireworks could be real.

Michael Thomas as the Flex

Sticking with a stud wide receiver in the flex position, Thomas ($8,000) had 10 receptions for 123 yards on 13 targets in the Saints’ Week 1 win over the Texans.

September 10, 2019 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous

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After missing a cash in Monday Night’s Draft Kings Week 1 Classic by two points, we are excited to enter Thursday Night Showdown featuring the Carolina Panthers hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as Famous Jameis Winston tries to right the ship after a 31-17 home defeat to 49ers to begin the season.

Carolina Defense as Our Captain

In Week 1, Famous Jameis threw three interceptions and was sacked three times. Tampa’s offensive line appears to be porous and though Carolina surrendered 166 yards rushing in their Week 1 loss to the Los Angeles Rams and managed only one sack, we like Carolina’s defense to rebound on the short week in traditionally sloppy Thursday night games.

September 9, 2019 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous

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After Sunday Night’s $4 win in Draft King’s showdown during New England’s 33-3 drubbing of the Pittsburgh Steelers, we are excited to enter this line-up into Monday night’s classic game. The slate features a cross conference showdown in New Orleans with DeShaun Watson bringing his fireworks against future Hall of Famer Drew Brees followed by a divisional contest in Oakland with Broncos coming to town.

DeShaun Watson stack

While Houston’s offensive line makes us a bit nervous, the addition of Laremy Tunsil should help Watson connect with DeAndre Hopkins and a healthy (for now) Will Fuller. The o/u sits at 52.5 and has all the makings of a shootout.

Carlos Hyde the lead back?

Hyde, signed after being released by the Kansas City Chiefs, potentially slides into the lead back role after running back Lamar Miller suffered a season ending torn ACL in the preseason.

Are Williams and Sutton the 1?

After releasing Antonio Brown and his prompt signing with the New England Patriots, Tyrell Williams enters Week 1 as quarterback David Carr’s top target and could avoid top corner Chris Harris. Courtland Sutton, entering his second year and teamed with veteran quarterback Joe Flacco, showing he still has some arm, is expected to matchup with the Raiders’ Garreon Conley, entering his third season. Sutton is big, physical and the new trend is for receivers to break out in their second year.

Emmanuel Sanders enters his age 32 season and is returning from injury as the Broncos face a Raiders defense expected to struggle. We are all in on Sutton this year emerging as true #1 receiver for this offense.

September 6, 2019 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous

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After a Thursday night top half finish in showdown, we are excited to enter the Sunday Classic featuring the 1pm EST and 4pm EST games for a total of twelve games. We’ve slipped the coin and decided to stack Minnesota, at home, making the difficult decision over stacking Tampa at home. In Famous Jameis we trust to chuck the ball 50 times a game. Also, a Jacksonville Contrarian Stack is being considered.

Cousins at home

At quarterback, we like Kirk Cousins ($5,500). Minnestoa plays a Falcons team healthy defensively for the first time since Week 1 of the 2018 season, returning stud linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal. Questions abound for second year corner Isaiah Oliver and a year older Desmond Trufant. The potential for Diggs to miss the game makes Cousins’ more attractive for a stack as he theoretically feeds fewer option in higher volume.

Offensively, the Falcons return a healthy Devonta Freeman with Calvin Ridley entering his second season and Mohamed Sanu always a threat. Revamping the right side of the offensive line in the 2019 NFL Draft will be evaluated for the first time with first rounders Chris Lindstrom at right guard and Kaleb McGary at right tackle. The game sits at 47 o/u, third highest on the slate of weekend games, and has all the makings of a shootout as Minnesota will be forced to throw to keep up.

The danger is Atlanta displaying amazinglyleet defense.

The Minnesota Stack

Everyone is expecting big things from Dalvin Cook ($6,000), and he’s almost a must play in GPP games. Especially since Cook will be playing in Gary Kubiak’s apparently magical zone blocking scheme. The prospect of Diggs not playing make Adam Thielen ($6,800) and Kyle Rudolph ($3,300) strong plays on potential volume and an attractive Vikings stack.

Value in Ekeler and Godwin

Chris Godwin ($6,200) is expected to catch 100 passes this season on the road in a game with a 51 o/u. Melvin Gordon III contract talks with the Los Angeles Chargers are suspended meaning Ekeler ($5,500) enters Week 1 as the lead back against the Indianapolis Colts. The o/u sits at 44.5 with the Chargers by 6.5.

Andrew Luck’s shocking retirement leaves Jacoby Brissett, and his fresh $30MM dollar contract, positioning to lead the Colts to the land of competitiveness. The Chargers will be a popular pick in Eliminator games but buyer beware: a Colts team suddenly “terrible” without Andrew Luck, no Derwin James, an overlooked Indianapolis pass defense … this game has all the makings of an upset with Indianapolis a solid bet at +6.5.

DeDe Westbrook + Julio Jones

Julio Jones ($8,000) will be up against 29 year old Xavier Rhodes while second year corner Mike Hughes, working his way back from injury, will miss the opener, making second year man Alexander Mackensie next man up. Harrison Smith is a beast at strong safety yet the departure of free safety Andrew Sandejo leaves the unproven Anthony Harris, Marcus Epps, and Jayron Kearse to fill the void.

Dede Westbrook ($4,800) is expected to break out this season with developing chemistry in the preseason with new Jaguars’ quarterback Nick Foles highlighting potential. The Kansas City Chiefs are coming to town, testing one of the top defenses (heading into Week 1), and are expected to enter the season with all cylinders firing offensively.

Jacksonville was the only team preventing Patrick Mahomes from thorwing a touchdown pass last season. The o/u sits at 51.5. While Jacksonville would like to establish the run with Leonard Fournette, Foles may be pressed into throwing the ball forty times.

Baltimore the defense to roster

The Ravens ($3,800) open on the road against a Miami Dolphins team in complete rebuild mode. Intermittent rain is possible during the game and with Baltimore looking to run the ball this has all the makings of a 30-0 road shutout to open the season. Ryan Fitzpatrick will sling it and this game could be one of Fitzpatrick’s four interception gems. Baltimore is the most likely team to score a defensive or special teams touchdown Week 1.

The Tampa Stack

There’s some kind of illness “bug” affecting Mike Evans’ status for Sunday with the “bug” now affecting rookie linebacker Devin White, selected fifth overall this past April. Game temperatures are expected to be 110 so Evans will most likely sweat it out. Ekeler and Cook are must plays.

Jacksonville contrarian stack

This option is still a work in progress.

Week 1 Picks

Green Bay over Chicago (+145).

Sunday Early Games

Tennessee (+6.0,-120) over Cleveland. We like Tennesse SU (+210) but will we actually make the bet SU or play it safe and take the points? Tennessee has the makings of top five defensive unit while the Browns are still the Browns. The computer models “loving” the Browns this weekend makes us like this bet even more.

Baltimore over Miami (-310). Safe money?

Sunday Late Games

Indianapolis (+6.5, -110). We like Indianapolis SU (+240) as this defense is being undervalued while the Chargers offense is being over valued in the Week 1 mist.

Sunday Night Game

New England (-145) at home against the Steelers. We’ll bet the Grand Master and the GOAT open the season at home with a win with Antonio Brown playing 30 snaps.

Monday Night Games

Houston (+7, -120) at New Orleans. Can the Houston offensive line give Watson the time he needs? Lattimore v. Hopkins? How does the departed Jadaveon Clowney impact Houston’s defense? The safe bet is New Orleans at home (-300).

Denver (-120) at Oakland. Road division game, no Antonio Brown, Denver’s edge rush will be delightful to watch all season and Joe Flacco shows he still has the arm.

September 5, 2019 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous

Comments Off on Draft Kings Week 1 Thursday Showdown

Week 1 of the 2019 NFL Season has finally arrived with a divisional NFC North game featuring Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers traveling to Chicago with Mitchell Trubisky leading a hungry Bears team. Are you going to play Thursday Night Showdown on Draft Kings? We are and you see our team.

All Important Captain Spot

We chose Trubisky ($17,400) because Green Bay’s defense is supposedly soft and Trubisky is playing at home. Stacking in a guaranteed prize pool game is a strategy and Trubisky, in our opinion, had a better stack than Rodgers, preferring to avoid the current coin toss of Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

We run a two QB team in showdown

Aaron Rodgers ($12,400) is 16-5 in his career against the Bears and we all remember last year when Rodgers returned from injury against the Bears, in the first game of the season for both teams in 2018, with the Packers prevailing However, we have to free up the salary cap, especially when the QB is our captain for the game, earning 1.5 fantasy points yet costing 1.5 More to roster. Trubisky is over looked as a potential captain.

Kickers free up money in showdown

Mason Crosby ($3,200) is a safe kicker play as the Chicago kicking game remains to be proven. Even if Trey Burton plays, Adam Shaheen ($400) offeres tremendous upside value and meets our goals for this week’s Thursday game.

Stacking the Chicago Run Game

Stacking, a strategy, offers some home run capability. David Montgomery ($8,200) will be heavily owned as many expect volume against a below average Packer defense. Speculation abounds regarding Tarik Cohen ($8,400) being less involved, leading to more optimism regarding Montgomery’s total touches. However, we’ll believe it when we see it. Last season, Cohen had six games with at least five carries and five receptions. Cohen had six or more receptions in six games. We’re gambling this is a 37.5% game for Cohen where he has at least ten touches with five receptions with a 5/16 chance Cohen scores a TD on a reception, from our captain. Good luck all.

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