NBA Slate – January 5, 2021
January 5, 2021 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous
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Five games scheduled
Utah Jazz @ Brooklyn Nets (+4.5)
Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies (+9)
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets (-10.5)
San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Clippers (-9.5)
Chicago Bulls @ Portland Trailblazers (-9.5)
Truths to be self evident
The Brooklyn Nets will be without Kevin Durant due to COVID protocols the next seven days and the Utah Jazz are so heavily favored with 61% of the bets and 80% of the money, surely Brooklyn winning outright is the bet to make.
The Lakers meet the Grizzlies for the second time in three days. Should we expect the outcome to be any different two days later? Minnesota and Denver also meet for the second time in three days. Should we expect a different outcome?
The Spurs may get LaMarcus Aldridge back from injury but the spread continues to move toward double digits. Double digit spreads are 5-5 on the season with the most recent cover by the Detroit Pistons (+16) against the Milwaukee Bucks last night.
The Chicago Bulls, fresh off a win against the Dallas Mavericks without Luka Doncic face Dame in Portland who were lit up by Steph Curry two nights ago.
The computer
The computer, whom we respect, is picking Memphis, San Antonio, and Chicago to cover. Yesterday, the computer went 4-5 against the spread and 4-5 on over/unders. Correctly picking Boston and the Knicks to cover beat the sharps who went 4-4 yesterday.
“Systems” like San Antonio +9.5 and Minnesota +10.5 as these are road teams off against the spread road losses. However, the early trend in teams meeting in consecutive contests over three days is the result is the same from the first game meaning the Lakers and Denver should both cover tonight.
NBA Slate – January 4, 2021
January 4, 2021 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous
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Nine games scheduled
Charlotte Horners @ Philadelphia 76ers (-8.5)
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic (-5)
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Miami Heat (-9)
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks (-6.5)
Boston Celtics @ Toronto Raptors (-4)
Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets (-4)
Indiana Pacers @ New Orleans Pelicans (-1.5)
Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks (-16)
Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors (+2.5)
Truths to be self evident
Last night, Steph Curry dropped 62 on the Portland Trailblazers reminding us the NBA is quality entertainment. The Charlotte Hornets lost by 15 two nights ago to the 76ers yet are expected to cover eight tonight.
The Cavaliers are overrated coming off a win against a gassed Atlanta Hawks team while the Magic are underrated after losing two straight to the aforementioned 76ers and Oklahoma City Thunder
Atlanta looks to bounce back against the Knicks who covered nine points in their last outing against the Indiana Pacers. The Celtics are getting four points against the Toronto Raptors and are on a back to back, perhaps lowly rated in the eyes of the public after squeaking out a two point win yesterday against the Detroit Pistons.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are getting no respect and nine points in Miami who are fully healthy. The Mavericks and Rockets hook up in a game where Luka Doncic and James Harden are both expected to play while the Indiana Pacers continue without their best player, TJ Warren, for the foreseeable future facing a Pelicans team looking fairly strong out of the gate.
The Pistons, on a back to back, are getting a ridiculous 16 points against the Milwaukee Bucks while Golden State, also on a back to back, are getting no respect at home against the Kings even after Steph dropped 62 last night.
The Computer
The computer, whom we respect, perhaps more than we should, went 3-5 against the spread last night and ridiculously solid 6-2 on over/unders. To date, the computer is 42-47 against the spread and 48-40 on over/unders.
Tonight, the computer likes underdogs Cleveland, Oklahoma City, the Knicks, Boston, and Dallas to all cover the spread with Dallas winning outright.
Last night, the sharps went 4-2, losing on Memphis (+9), perhaps showing there’s nothing sharp about betting against LeBron James, and Minnesota (+8.5). Both Memphis and Minnesota were covering the spread deep into the fourth quarter but the favorites pulled away in the end.
NBA Slate – January 3, 2021
January 3, 2021 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous
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Eight games scheduled
Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons (+8.5)
Washington Wizards @ Brooklyn Nets (-7.5)
Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies (+9)
Utah Jazz @ San Antonio Spurs (+4.5)
Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves (+8.5)
Los Angeles Clippers @ Phoenix Suns (+3.5)
Dallas Mavericks @ Chicago Bulls (+6)
Portland Trailblazers @ Golden State Warriors (+5)
Truths to be self evident
The Pistons aren’t very good and the owner is stressing patience to the fan base. The Brooklyn Nets are one of the best perceived teams in the NBA while the Lakers will always be heavily bet by the public creating value.
The Jazz play great defense while San Antonio are keeping games close. The Timberwolves will continue to struggle without their best player Karl Anthony Townes. The Clippers will be heavily bet by the public creating value while the Suns are playing the best defense in the NBA.
The Dallas Mavericks have a leading MVP candidate while the Bulls are clearly rebuilding under first year head coach Billy Donovan and missing key rotational players.
Steph Curry will always be great yet the Warriors haven’t been impressive in the early going while Dame and Portland are finding ways to win.
The Computer
As stated previously, we value the computer’s opinion. The computer is picking underdogs Washington, Memphis, and Phoenix to cover with the Suns winning outright against Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers.
Yesterday, the computer was 3-3 against the spread and 3-3 on over/unders while the sharps went 4-1.
NBA Slate January 2, 2021
January 2, 2021 | Posted in Publishing | By Anonymous
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Six games scheduled
Sacramento Kings @ Houston Rockets (-5.5)
Charlotte Hornerts @ Philadelphia 76ers (-10)
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Orlando Magic (-5.5)
New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers (-9)
Toronto Raptors @ New Orleans Pelicans (+1)
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks (-5.5)
Truths to be self evident
Does a team organizing a block buster trade for their best player, who is out of shape by the way, seem like a team winning many games by six points? There’s sharp money on the Kings and the computer agrees.
Double digits in a NBA contest is often too many. Charlotte lost outright last night to Memphis, missing their best player Ja Morant, while the Sixers are covering at home and on the road and playing good defense. Charlotte shot 9/31 (29%) from three point range and 40.7% overall from the field. The Hornets are double digit underdogs, under valued, on a back to back, while the sharp action is on Philly.
The Thunder are getting 5.5 at Orlando, who were crushed thoroughly by the Sixers in their first loss of the season two days ago. Oklahoma City lost by 33 in their last outing. Is there value in this line?
The Knicks are facing an Indiana team without their best player, T.J. Warren, who is out indefinitely with a foot injury. The Pacers without their best player for one game, a 20 point win against the Cavaliers, is one thing, the Pacers without their best player indefinitely will not be giving their opponent nine points, a virtual double digit spread, very long.
Toronto faces the Pelicans in a virtual pick-em between the two most defensive teams in the NBA, though a small sample size. Toronto is not the same team without Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol while the Pelicans are playing slow paced, defensive basketball. There’s value on the Knicks line because Toronto rallied late to win by 17 two days ago. The sharp money is on the Pelicans and while 99% of the money is on the over, currently 215.5, sometimes, it could be fun to make a bet where you want the house to win.
Finally, the hapless Cavaliers face the Atlanta Hawks who beat the Brooklyn Nets, a perceived NBA heavy hitter last night, and lost a close, high scoring games two nights ago. Atlanta is playing their third game in four nights. The sharp money on the Cavaliers is weighing this factor too heavily.
The computer
We value the computer’s opinion and trust the source of the data widely available to the public for a small monthly fee. The computer contends underdogs Sacramento, Charlotte, Oklahoma City, and the Knicks will all cover the spread tonight.
The computer has been red hot the past few days, including the last six of seven, and an insane 11-4 the past two days. Is it time to fade the computer?
Do we make bets based on small data samples collected over the previous two seasons and nothing more? Nah, we watch the basketball games, as many as we can, and try to formulate our opinions based on what we see, incorporating factors like the Atlanta Hawks are at a disadvantage playing their third game in four nights. However, they are the home team and Cleveland is missing too many players to keep up.
Easiest money on the NBA Slate
Atlanta -5.5. Sure, Andre Drummond will get his twenty points and rebounds. Sexton and Garland might play lights out but Trey Young + Cleveland Cavaliers, who should be faded until at least Kevin Love returns, equals easy money. But, you can make a bet with real money fading the sharps and agreeing with the computer and some random guy on the internet.
The Cavs are still over valued from beating the Sixers, at home, by 24. The Sixers sat Embiid, and the Cavs promptly lost outright while being favored to the equally challenged New York Knicks as 3.5 point favorites in their next game. The Cavaliers are a team who will struggle to score 100 points in a NBA contest.
The pick seems so easy, certainly the smart bet is Cavaliers +5.5? What about Oklahoma City? A bet on Orlando (-5.5) is fading 99% of the money, 72% of the public, and the computer while a bet on Atlanta (-5.5) is fading just 32% of the money and 42% of the money while agreeing with the red hot computer who’s due to cool off. Which contest would you fade?